What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
Lord Beria3 wrote:
Poltico briefing today reporting both Tory and labour camps see mass voter defections from labour to Tories in Midlands and the north.
I suspect it's bollocks. We are being overwhelmed with disinformation. Politico is a right-wing, American organisation. I don't trust it as a source.
Good news if true for the Tories!
Good news if bollocks for Labour, because it will lull tory voters into a false sense of security. Hopefully they will stay at home.
Middle England ready to gamble on Prime Minister Corbyn
The Labour leader has been derided for his flaws but, amid creaking public services, executive greed and chaos on the railways, Tory voters are warming to his goal of a fairer society. By Matthew Goodwin
I know this area from student days when several friends rented a house in South Woodford. I always thought of it being very boring and hard line tory and this opinion was reinforced on a few occasions when I ventured out along the central line to visit them.
" For three uninterrupted decades, in every election since 1989, Francis Roads has voted Green. Through the final gasp of Thatcherism, the Major years, the hope and disillusion of New Labour and the chilly decade of coalition and Tory austerity, he has stuck to his environmental principles and resisted the urge to vote tactically.
Until last month, that is, when at a party meeting in his constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green, Roads was one of a number of members to suggest their candidate stand down to help elect Labour’s candidate.
The move – which was adopted – did not delight the party’s leadership, but to Roads, a retired teacher and musician, there was no doubt that it was time, at last, to change his vote. Why? “Well, because this seat has now become marginal,� he says, “and I really would like to see the end of Iain Duncan Smith, who I think is a dreadful man.�"
Potemkin Villager wrote:Oh please, please give IDS his P45.
I know this area from student days when several friends rented a house in South Woodford. I always thought of it being very boring and hard line tory and this opinion was reinforced on a few occasions when I ventured out along the central line to visit them.
" For three uninterrupted decades, in every election since 1989, Francis Roads has voted Green. Through the final gasp of Thatcherism, the Major years, the hope and disillusion of New Labour and the chilly decade of coalition and Tory austerity, he has stuck to his environmental principles and resisted the urge to vote tactically.
Until last month, that is, when at a party meeting in his constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green, Roads was one of a number of members to suggest their candidate stand down to help elect Labour’s candidate.
The move – which was adopted – did not delight the party’s leadership, but to Roads, a retired teacher and musician, there was no doubt that it was time, at last, to change his vote. Why? “Well, because this seat has now become marginal,� he says, “and I really would like to see the end of Iain Duncan Smith, who I think is a dreadful man.�"
I think there is going to be all sorts of unusual results in this election due to very localised factors. It is really 650 different elections - more so than a typical general election.
What to look out for in the last week of the compaign
In some respects, the UK election is one of the most boring we can recall. Not that we know the outcome. It is quite possible that this election will get less boring in the final stretch. A lot of people have an interest in making the election more exciting than it is - journalists naturally, but also the parties themselves. Nothing motivates supporters more than the fear, or hope, of a narrow outcome.
So, what do we know? An ICM poll last night saw the gap between Tories and Labour closing by 1pp, to 7pp. The various poll trackers are showing a gap of around 10/11pp. We noted a comment by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman that we are a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament. We don’t think this is so.
What we do know for sure is that Labour has been gaining at the expense of the LibDems. The LibDems are suffering the classic squeeze of the small party in a first-past-the-post system. The LibDems are currently at 13% - which is more than the 7% or so they got at the 2017 elections. We expect more LibDem voters to switch, but we should not underestimate the residual anti-Corbyn sentiment in that group. Â
We have to be careful in how we think about statistical error. The narrow statistical error in a poll-of-polls is probably quite small, given the large combined sample size. The two sources of error that are hardest to account for are asymmetric mobilisation and first-past-the-post idiosyncrasies. The second is the Donald Trump effect - he lost the US national vote in 2016, but won the presidency.
The aforementioned ICM poll also said that around 8 out of 10 Tory voters are certain to vote, but only 7 out 10 Labour voters. The big YouGov poll last week told us that the Tories have a good chance to capture traditional Labour constituencies in the North. Those numbers are consistent with a survey by the trade union Unite, which showed that a large number of traditional Labour voters are undecided because of Brexit. That information, too, has to be treated as a rallying call. We heard of another poll showing that the Tories hold a very strong lead over Labour among working-class voters.
What we need to look out for in the last few days of the campaign are signs of two types of shifts happening. The extent to which centrist voters in the south are ready to support Jeremy Corbyn in order to defeat the local Tory candidate. And the extent to which the Tories attract the working-class voters of the north. It is our best guess that the rise in Labour support in the headline polls reflects the former, but not the latter.Â
Our conclusion from these observation is that further shifts in the LibDem vote are unlikely to be decisive. What Jeremy Corbyn needs to achieve in the next 10 days is to mobilise reluctant pro-Brexit Labour voters in the north.Â
There is not much the Tories can do. They have consolidated the pro-Brexit vote. They will need to keep the high degree of mobilisation of their voters. The Tories have concentrated most of their campaign funds on the final stretch for that very reason. Based on what we know, we conclude that we are still not anywhere near to hung-parliament territory right now.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Lord Beria3 wrote:...but would quite happily see Raab lose his seat. He is quite repulsive.
Yes, and today he lied, again. For me, the most striking thing about this this campaign had been the lies. Every single day, multiple senior Tories are caught telling blatant lies. I've never seen anything like it.
They lie to deceive us, they are attempting to win an election through deception.
This alone, should be enough to lose them significant support. Don't vote for liars.
Lord Beria3 wrote:...but would quite happily see Raab lose his seat. He is quite repulsive.
Yes, and today he lied, again. For me, the most striking thing about this this campaign had been the lies. Every single day, multiple senior Tories are caught telling blatant lies. I've never seen anything like it.
They lie to deceive us, they are attempting to win an election through deception.
This alone, should be enough to lose them significant support. Don't vote for liars.
If you never seen anything like it, you are either being disingenuous or you haven't been paying attention
clv101 wrote:. Every single day, multiple senior Tories are caught telling blatant lies. I've never seen anything like it.
They lie to deceive us.
You mean like the great big whopper of:
"This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide"
However, it wasn't just tories that told that great big fat lie of lies.
Yes, 'A' big fat lie. What we have now is multiple, different lies, coming thick and fast from lots of cabinet level ministers. Not being disingenuous. The other big difference is that the Brexit lie was about something they said they were going to do, then didn't, today's lies are simple factual lies about the past, not campaign promises.
Libdems are dying a death, and Labour is picking up most of their vote. They will hold on in seats where tactical voting in 2017 means Labour has no way of winning, but everywhere else they will be anihilated. They are not getting 6000 votes in Hastings either.
Lord Beria3 wrote:...but would quite happily see Raab lose his seat. He is quite repulsive.
Yes, and today he lied, again. For me, the most striking thing about this this campaign had been the lies. Every single day, multiple senior Tories are caught telling blatant lies. I've never seen anything like it.
They lie to deceive us, they are attempting to win an election through deception.
This alone, should be enough to lose them significant support. Don't vote for liars.
If you never seen anything like it, you are either being disingenuous or you haven't been paying attention
What is new is the apparent total disregard. It is normal for politicians to lie, but to want to avoid looking like they are lying. The tories don't seem to care. It's like they're taking a lesson out of the Trump playbook. They think people will vote for them even if they lie, providing they lie about the right things.
Johnson could probably even get away with a "grab 'em by the pussy" remark.
clv101 wrote:
Yes, and today he lied, again. For me, the most striking thing about this this campaign had been the lies. Every single day, multiple senior Tories are caught telling blatant lies. I've never seen anything like it.
They lie to deceive us, they are attempting to win an election through deception.
This alone, should be enough to lose them significant support. Don't vote for liars.
If you never seen anything like it, you are either being disingenuous or you haven't been paying attention
What is new is the apparent total disregard. It is normal for politicians to lie, but to want to avoid looking like they are lying. The tories don't seem to care. It's like they're taking a lesson out of the Trump playbook. They think people will vote for them even if they lie, providing they lie about the right things.
Johnson could probably even get away with a "grab 'em by the pussy" remark.
that's because people don't give a F--k about who tells what lies anymore. They have come to understand, via the broken promises of Brexit, that democracy is largely a lie in this country anyway.
Tory insiders I speak to are now sounding notably upbeat about their prospects in target seats in E Mids, W Mids, NW, Yorkshire and NE, ie "the Red Wall". Boris going down well in these regions, as per C4 News focus group thing, I'm told.
Also confirms the comments by Red Len of Unite, the panicked attempt by labour to pivot to its labour leave vote in the last few days and the ch.4 focus group I referenced earlier.
Also rumours that the snp are feeling chipper about taking down the vile Jo Swinson in her seat as well. Queen Revoke herself. That wouldn't surprise me - she is toxic and got more unpopular the more voters have seen her on TV.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
