What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
clv101 wrote:Seems like there's a big question mark over Andrew Neil's interview with Johnson. He might even chicken out.
I would read that as confirming Johnson is a deceitful charlatan. On Sturgeon’s comment that Johnson is “dangerous and not fit to hold office� I would agree if he did not submit to Neil’s inquisition. It seems Johnson has lied about the NHS not being up for grabs in US negotiations, since these moves have been rumbling for years.
What choice is there for British voters? All the options are rubbish. All making unaffordable promises, which on past form will magically vanish when the polls close.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)
Interesting, Stephen Bush is arguing that this poll might actually lead the tories to think they've got the election in the bag, and actually swing the result the other way:
Interesting call with Matthew Paris on LBC today, long time Conservative, worked with Thatcher in the early years before becoming an MP. Extremely critical of Johnson, not fit to be PM, he'll be voting LibDim.
He was even more critical of Corbyn though... but felt confident voting LibDem as he saw zero threat of Corbyn becoming PM.
I know YouGov MRP was right (or more right than most of the other polls) last time, but I deeply mistrust this poll. Why? Because it gives detailed predictions by seat, and I think it has got the prediction wrong for my own seat, which I understand quite well. Tories won it by 346 votes, libdem only just held on to his deposit with 1885 votes - (3.4%). This Yougov poll is predicting the same libdem candidate will get 10% this time - which is 5500 votes. I simply do not believe that is going to happen. It puts Labour on 39% (21.5K) and the tories on 49% (27K).
If that prediction is true, then so is the national one likely to be, but I simply cannot believe that that many people are going to waste their votes on the liberal democrats in this constituency. And certainly not when the libdems are being predicted to only gain 1 seat nationally.
I believe it is wrong. The tories may well hold this seat, but they aren't going to increase their majority to 5550 because thousands of people have decided they hate both brexit and Corbyn sufficiently to stop voting tactically (and there aren't enough libdem voters who will vote tactically for the tories to stop Corbyn, partly because most of them hate brexit, but mostly because the pool of available libdem voters is already quite small. Plus the candidate isn't liked. It also has the independent on 1% (550 votes). I have known the individual in question for many years, he's completely bonkers (truly believes he can get himself elected within 3 elections) and won't even get 100 votes.
I think the model is underestimating the level of tactical voting that's going to occur. People are being given a clear choice: labour or tory. Voting libdem puts the decision into the hands of other people.
UndercoverElephant wrote:I know YouGov MRP was right (or more right than most of the other polls) last time, but I deeply mistrust this poll. Why? Because it gives detailed predictions by seat, and I think it has got the prediction wrong for my own seat, which I understand quite well. Tories won it by 346 votes, libdem only just held on to his deposit with 1885 votes - (3.4%). This Yougov poll is predicting the same libdem candidate will get 10% this time - which is 5500 votes. I simply do not believe that is going to happen. It puts Labour on 39% (21.5K) and the tories on 49% (27K).
If that prediction is true, then so is the national one likely to be, but I simply cannot believe that that many people are going to waste their votes on the liberal democrats in this constituency. And certainly not when the libdems are being predicted to only gain 1 seat nationally.
This is exactly the situation Paris was describing, because he is certain the Tories will win a majority, he feels able to vote LibDem in order to express his disgust in Johnson. How common is this? Who knows, but I agree, that LibDem surge in Hastings seems highly unlikely given the national LibDem polling.
Where can you see the seat by seat breakdown from YouGov MRP?
UndercoverElephant wrote:I know YouGov MRP was right (or more right than most of the other polls) last time, but I deeply mistrust this poll. Why? Because it gives detailed predictions by seat, and I think it has got the prediction wrong for my own seat, which I understand quite well. Tories won it by 346 votes, libdem only just held on to his deposit with 1885 votes - (3.4%). This Yougov poll is predicting the same libdem candidate will get 10% this time - which is 5500 votes. I simply do not believe that is going to happen. It puts Labour on 39% (21.5K) and the tories on 49% (27K).
If that prediction is true, then so is the national one likely to be, but I simply cannot believe that that many people are going to waste their votes on the liberal democrats in this constituency. And certainly not when the libdems are being predicted to only gain 1 seat nationally.
This is exactly the situation Paris was describing, because he is certain the Tories will win a majority, he feels able to vote LibDem in order to express his disgust in Johnson. How common is this? Who knows, but I agree, that LibDem surge in Hastings seems highly unlikely given the national LibDem polling.
There might be a few like him, yes. But for the libdems to get 10% of the vote in Hastings & Rye, that means they need to take 6.5% off the tories, because I can't see many Labour voters switching to the libdems. But if that happens, how the hell can the tories increase their own vote share by 10%? Where are those votes coming from? The only possible explanation is labour leavers, but I am a labour leaver in this seat. I know the labour leavers in Hastings, and they hate the tories.
Where can you see the seat by seat breakdown from YouGov MRP?
Regarding the yougov poll that sounds about right.
This election has become, as much as referendum on corbyn as it is brexit.
My own view is that enough voters have concluded Corbyn is unfit to be PM. Labour would be better of the tories winning a modest working majority, that will force corbyn to resign and somebody half decent can replace him who can attract soft Tory/liberal votes in 2024.
Those tories who got elected in marginal labour seats would rebel against any unpopular stuff like the nhs fears being promoted by labour because they know that otherwise they would lose to labour.
That will provide some comfort to some of you labour supporters here.
Corbyn won't leave unless he has clearly lost which means a tory majority.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
The Labour Party is to re-shape its general election campaign strategy - particularly in Leave-voting areas - to try to turn around a stubborn Conservative opinion poll lead.
Insiders told the BBC that in the first half of the election campaign, a key error was that the Liberal Democrat threat had been overestimated, while the willingness of Leave voters to switch from Labour to the Conservatives had been underestimated.
In the last two weeks of the campaign, this will change.
So this is interesting. What appears to have happens is that the libdems have unexpectedly cocked up their campaign. Turns out that going full revoke was a really a bad idea, because quite a lot of potential libdem voters actually want a second referendum rather than an attempt to revoke article 50 without one. It also allowed Labour to adopt the previous libdem policy. Secondly, Swinson has badly underestimated the damage she's doing by attacking Corbyn so much and ruling out working with Labour, because a lot of the 2017 libdem voters are labour supporters who vote libdem tactically to keep the tories out.
So that frees Labour up go more strongly after the leave vote.
I have no idea whether this will work, but agree that Labour doesn't have much to lose by trying it. Swinson can't fix the libdem campaign.
Lol - LJ you will like this. Labour belatedly realise they need the support of leavers. What happened to all that guff that most labour voters in leave seats were remainers so they didn't need to dirty their hands with the deplorable Brexiteers?!
Too little too late. Nobody trusts labour on Brexit.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
The Labour Party is to re-shape its general election campaign strategy - particularly in Leave-voting areas - to try to turn around a stubborn Conservative opinion poll lead.
Insiders told the BBC that in the first half of the election campaign, a key error was that the Liberal Democrat threat had been overestimated, while the willingness of Leave voters to switch from Labour to the Conservatives had been underestimated.
In the last two weeks of the campaign, this will change.
So this is interesting. What appears to have happens is that the libdems have unexpectedly cocked up their campaign. Turns out that going full revoke was a really a bad idea, because quite a lot of potential libdem voters actually want a second referendum rather than an attempt to revoke article 50 without one. It also allowed Labour to adopt the previous libdem policy. Secondly, Swinson has badly underestimated the damage she's doing by attacking Corbyn so much and ruling out working with Labour, because a lot of the 2017 libdem voters are labour supporters who vote libdem tactically to keep the tories out.
So that frees Labour up go more strongly after the leave vote.
I have no idea whether this will work, but agree that Labour doesn't have much to lose by trying it. Swinson can't fix the libdem campaign.
So, openly defying the democratic will of the people turns out to be a "unexpectedly" bad idea does it? No shit Sherlock.
But, you think this means Labour can now chase the Leave vote do you? I'd laugh if it wasn't so f***ing tragic.
Last edited by Little John on 28 Nov 2019, 10:28, edited 3 times in total.
Lol - LJ you will like this. Labour belatedly realise they need the support of leavers. What happened to all that guff that most labour voters in leave seats were remainers so they didn't need to dirty their hands with the deplorable Brexiteers?!
Too little too late. Nobody trusts labour on Brexit.
Yep. Too little too late.
For you, I understand this will be great news. For me, it is a disaster of historical proportions. This was the one chance left of putting 40 years of globalist neo liberalism into reverse. And, as f***ing usual, Labour have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Yorkshire, Corbyn’s political career is over. Once he agreed to an election, he was doomed, because his waffling over Brexit satisfies nobody; Labour is heading toward a stinging defeat. At this point BoJo’s going to get a solid majority, a negotiated Brexit will happen in January, and away we go. It’s unfortunate, really; I think Corbyn could have been a good PM, and if he’d stuck to his guns and stayed pro-Brexit he’d probably be looking at moving to No. 10 shortly
Interestingly he also forecasts a 2nd Scottish independence referendum in two years which will out campaign will win.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
