General Election Dec 2019 thread

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 25 Nov 2019, 21:06

Interesting article - Tory HQ are expecting this bounce in Labour support post-manifesto.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo ... tion-crime

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 25 Nov 2019, 22:26

Lord Beria3 wrote: And we still have over 2 weeks left yet in this race. I'm surprised with you UE!

It was a very old friend, in the pub, he bullshits a lot about politics and doesn't let me get a word in edgeways. I offered him the bet largely to shut him up! Plus it is the sort of bet I'll be happy to lose.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 25 Nov 2019, 22:30

Lord Beria3 wrote:Well, I'm not surprised by this... Labour mini surge starting.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)

via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 Nov
Regretting your Â£50 pound bet UE!!!

I already posted that further up the page.

If you consider that in 2017 the polls on average overestimated the tory lead by about 3-4 points then the true figure may well be closer to

CON: 39
LAB: 36

And as you say, that is with over two weeks to go. This election is a real mystery, and is likely to remain that way until the results start rolling in. Even the exit poll won't tell us how tactical voting and new voter registration will have changed things.

Post by **clv101** » 25 Nov 2019, 22:40

I was talking to someone today, very politically engaged, with college age kids. In 2017 there was huge interest and excitement about Corbyn - he said that interest with the kids just isn't there this time.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 25 Nov 2019, 22:43

Lord Beria3 wrote:
The next question is the following:

1) will there be further shift in support from Liberals to Labour to prevent a Tory majority (on top of the tactical shifts which sent Labour from early 20's to 30% in the polls)

I think so, yes. From talking to libdem voters, I get the impression that quite a lot of them think the libdem policy of revoke without a second referendum is anti-democratic and wouldn't end brexit cleanly. They actually want a second referendum, which they think remain will win. So if you are a libdem remainer in a seat where labour stand a much better chance of winning than the libdems do, there is quite a lot of motive to vote labour.

2) Will we see a panic among the ex-Tory Liberals and undecided Tory Remain vote, who are currently not with the Tories, into the Tory tribe as the polls tighten and the prospects of PM Corbyn rise.

I'm not sure how many of those left to be squeezed. Recent tory polling numbers suggests nearly all of them have already returned to the fold.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 26 Nov 2019, 08:14

Regarding the youth vote- agree with that. My Facebook wall is dead this ge, last time it was filled with anti Tory memes and momentum videos.

That's why I question the talk of a huge surge of interest in the youth turnout this time. Not feeling it myself which isn't good news for labour.

Regarding further shift from lib to lab yup I agree a bit more could come. Corbyn's toxic ratings and persona will make that difficult with many liberal voters.

Regarding ex tory remainers don't agree with you there. A fairly solid group shifted to the liberals or are undecided. They could return to the fold given a labour government is an appalling scenario for the majority.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 26 Nov 2019, 08:17

I also think that a labour bounce might do the Tories some good.

Will force voters whether they really are prepared to see Corbyn as PM. A mid election wobble may turn out to benefit the tories on election day.

We will see...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Nov 2019, 10:56

Lord Beria3 wrote:Regarding the youth vote- agree with that. My Facebook wall is dead this ge, last time it was filled with anti Tory memes and momentum videos.

That's why I question the talk of a huge surge of interest in the youth turnout this time. Not feeling it myself which isn't good news for labour.

3 million people have registered to vote since this election was called. How many of them do you think are planning to vote tory?

Post by **clv101** » 26 Nov 2019, 12:32

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:Regarding the youth vote- agree with that. My Facebook wall is dead this ge, last time it was filled with anti Tory memes and momentum videos.

That's why I question the talk of a huge surge of interest in the youth turnout this time. Not feeling it myself which isn't good news for labour.

3 million people have registered to vote since this election was called. How many of them do you think are planning to vote tory?

It's hard to know how significant this is. The rate of registration is higher and the age of registrants is lower than this time in 2017 - but you'd expect that as the students are still at uni.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Nov 2019, 19:07

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 18471.html

Dr Jess Garland, director of policy and research at the Electoral Reform Society, said: â€œThis surge in registrations is highly encouraging, given the huge numbers missing from the electoral roll. Weâ€™re seeing a major uplift in new registrations compared to the last election, with large numbers of young people signing up too â€“ a traditionally under-registered demographic.

It is estimated that one third are duplicates, so "only" two million new voters, but two thirds of these are under 35. That is an average of 3000 new voters in every consitutency, including a lot of young people who will be overwhelmingly more likely to vote Labour.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 26 Nov 2019, 19:57

Latest yougov poll - most committed voters to turn out are the Tories.

Tories with a 11 point lead despite the mini bounce from Labour over the last few years.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Nov 2019, 21:36

Lord Beria3 wrote:Latest yougov poll - most committed voters to turn out are the Tories.

Tories with a 11 point lead despite the mini bounce from Labour over the last few years.

I suspect it is more like a 5 point lead. Wait until the Yougov MRP poll comes out tomorrow night (and remember that even though it was much more accurate than the regular polls, it too underestimated Labour's eventual vote share). If that shows an 11 point tory lead, I'll believe it.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... parliament

Post by **clv101** » 26 Nov 2019, 23:48

Haven't seen much of Jacob Rees-Mogg this campaign, where's he hiding?

Corbyn had a good roasting from Andrew Neil today, wonder how hard he'll be on Johnson? There's a lot of material to work with if he really wants to take him down.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 27 Nov 2019, 07:46

clv101 wrote:Haven't seen much of Jacob Rees-Mogg this campaign, where's he hiding?

Probably in the same cupboard under the stairs as Diane Abbot.

Corbyn had a good roasting from Andrew Neil today, wonder how hard he'll be on Johnson? There's a lot of material to work with if he really wants to take him down.

Johnson asked him loaded questions then interrupted him when he tried to answer. That' not a "good roasting". That's a poor interview.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 27 Nov 2019, 08:28

The failure by labour to deal with the anti semite in the labour party is definitely damaging the party.

Met quite a few voters who have raised this issue as a reason why they can't vote labour.

The palpable fear among jews in the uk to Corbyn is hitting labour and shaping the perception that labour is extreme.

Their far left economic policies don't help either in that sense.