Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

They dare not VONC the Tories and have an election for fear of the backlash that already exists.

No. They dare not VONC the tories unless they've got a copper-bottomed guarantee that a no deal brexit can't happen before the election takes place.

The moment there is an extension of 3 months or more, parliament will vote for an election. December 5th or 12th.

I agree with you, with one uncertainty: Would BJ still want an election if the EU offers a 'flextension' where you can leave as soon as the deal is passed into law? And would a VonC pass if the govt opposes it? I can't see the DUP supporting it for example as a non-Tory govt would be much worse for them (although a BXP govt would satisfy them I imagine).

It would I'm sure be really hard for Johnson to now refuse an election once a 3 month flextension is offered, having condemned the parliament as zombified and having demanded an election several times. But I actually think it would be better for him electorally to accept a month delay and get the deal into law and be the man who got Brexit done, rather than go into an election having promised to 'die in a ditch' rather than fail to leave by 31st October. That way lies electoral ruin as so many will turn to the Brexit Party.

I don't think the EU will allow a one month extension. If anything, they'll go longer than three months rather than shorter.

Pretty much everybody knows this parliament is finished now. It cannot do anything at all, apart from block things. An election is the only way out.

[RevdTess]

I don't think the EU will allow a one month extension. If anything, they'll go longer than three months rather than shorter.

I've not seen any evidence/quotes suggesting they'd go for longer, but who knows. I can't see any reason for it from their perspective, especially if they're willing to allow the UK to leave at some arbitrary earlier date when the bill is passed.

But at the moment it seems like now the Oct 31 deadline is broken, everyone is much happier to roll the dice of an election which will surely resolve things one way or another.

At this point I'd actually prefer a BXP govt to a Tory one. The Brexit outcome would be roughly the same and the BXP are in favour of electoral reform. Better still to have a progressive govt, but electoral reform is the much bigger deal for me as it forces us away from the tribal politics that Brexit has massively exacerbated.

[UndercoverElephant]

BXP government would be entertaining, for sure. Not going to happen though. I'm still predicting a minority labour government.

[Little John]

I don't think the EU will allow a one month extension. If anything, they'll go longer than three months rather than shorter.

I've not seen any evidence/quotes suggesting they'd go for longer, but who knows. I can't see any reason for it from their perspective, especially if they're willing to allow the UK to leave at some arbitrary earlier date when the bill is passed.

But at the moment it seems like now the Oct 31 deadline is broken, everyone is much happier to roll the dice of an election which will surely resolve things one way or another.

At this point I'd actually prefer a BXP govt to a Tory one. The Brexit outcome would be roughly the same and the BXP are in favour of electoral reform. Better still to have a progressive govt, but electoral reform is the much bigger deal for me as it forces us away from the tribal politics that Brexit has massively exacerbated.

Brexit has not "exacerbated" tribal politics. It has merely exposed the entirely fake tribal divisions of parliament as utterly disconnected and unrelated to the real tribal divisions in society.

[RevdTess]

Brexit has not "exacerbated" tribal politics. It has merely exposed the entirely fake tribal divisions of parliament as utterly disconnected and unrelated to the real tribal divisions in society.

I'll certainly concede that point. I would like to see more perspectives represented in parliament since so few are currently visible there due to our crappy electoral party system, and those that are visible seem to bear little resemblance to views in the country, as you say.

[Lord Beria3]

The wisdom if trying for a ge now looks rather crazy to me.

Better for gov to agree extended timetable and get deal through the commons.

Sounds like Cummings is pushing for a ge but v risky. Doubt many Tory MPs or ministers support such a high risk strategy.

Cummings can be brilliant but has also made some serious errors. Boris should listen to the sensibles rather than Cummings on this occasion.

[UndercoverElephant]

The wisdom if trying for a ge now looks rather crazy to me.

Better for gov to agree extended timetable and get deal through the commons.

Sounds like Cummings is pushing for a ge but v risky. Doubt many Tory MPs or ministers support such a high risk strategy.

Cummings can be brilliant but has also made some serious errors. Boris should listen to the sensibles rather than Cummings on this occasion.

Boris may not get to choose. If the opposition actually want an election, they can easily VonC him.

[Lord Beria3]

Looking increasingly likely that

1) 3 month final extension will be offered by EU to 31st Jan
2) there is no 2/3 majority in parliament to trigger pre-Xmas ge (Labour MP's are hostile)
3) The Brexit saga will carry on until past New Year.

I still think we will end up in an orderly Brexit, probably at the end of January 2020 once Macron finally has enough and veto's any further extension.

We know that there is a slim majority for the deal.

Wild card is Macron - will he insist on very short extension?

[RevdTess]

2) there is no 2/3 majority in parliament to trigger pre-Xmas ge (Labour MP's are hostile)

Corbyn has said he'd accept a GE as soon as 'no deal' is ruled out. By this I assumed he meant as soon as there's no risk of 'no deal' before a GE can be completed.

Does Labour now prefer to spend the next three months 'fixing' Johnson's deal? That sounds like a mistake. I don't see any better time for a GE from Labour's perspective than at the start of a three-month extension when Boris has clearly failed to achieve his one and only objective and the Brexit Party are waiting to take half his votes away.

I'll certainly be sad if there's no GE before Christmas.

[Catweazle]

The reason they are so easily able to "spin" it is because it is not a narrative. It is the reality. And I say that as no defender of the latest incarnation of May's surrender treaty.

I agree that our negotiating position was hugely damaged every time another motion barring "no deal" went through Parliament - negotiating suicide - and that is by definition traitorous. However, the emerging picture of Brexited Britain is so different to the one that was voted upon it could be said that trying to postpone it, or even offer a second referendum, is patriotic.

3 years ago the talk was of how great Brexit would be for the economy, how much extra money would be available for the NHS etc., etc..

Now, there are mostly differing opinions on how bad it will be.

I have been swayed by your writings on this, part of me says "follow the democratic vote and live with the consequences..." , but a slightly more pragmatic part of me says to consider the suffering of millions of Brits who didn't know what was being voted on.

Like many members here ( I suspect ) I will not be hugely affected either way, I've been prepping for years, so have less skin in the game and perhaps less right to comment.

[clv101]

3) The Brexit saga will carry on until past New Year.

I still think we will end up in an orderly Brexit, probably at the end of January 2020...

Past New Year? And the rest! As you know the saga doesn't end with the WAB passing, that's just the end of the beginning. What follows is likely years of antagonistic trade neigotiatians with the EU and others where our relatively weak and inexperienced position will be continuously brought to the fore. Liz Truss!?

The Tory's 'get it done' slogan is a con.

[UndercoverElephant]

Looking increasingly likely that

1) 3 month final extension will be offered by EU to 31st Jan
2) there is no 2/3 majority in parliament to trigger pre-Xmas ge (Labour MP's are hostile)

If Blairite labour MPs like Kinnock block a general election the Labour leadership has told them to vote for, they should be kicked out of the party and deselected.

I can't stand Kinnock. Enough is enough. He needs to go.

[Mark]

Cummings can be brilliant.

Care to substantiate ?

[Lord Beria3]

Leave campaign and the earlier referendum against the change to our electoral system. He was the brains behind the victory.

[Lord Beria3]

Prospects of ge small and shrinking every minute