Brexit process

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.ft.com/content/513fddb4-f28 ... 9acae3b654

According to an analysis by the Financial Times, there could be a majority of five for the Brexit deal — if MPs stick to their voting patterns based on the Letwin amendment, which was passed to avert the prospect of a no-deal exit on October 31. Some 320 MPs appear set to back Mr Johnson’s deal, with 315 opposed — excluding the two tellers from each side.

The amendment, tabled by former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin, essentially turned the meaningful vote into an indicative vote without legal force. Many MPs who backed the Letwin amendment will not support a deal when it returns to the Commons — possibly as soon as Tuesday in the form of a second reading on the withdrawal agreement — but others will.

The whole of the Conservative parliamentary party supported the government in opposing the Letwin amendment, with the exception of two MPs who abstained: Anne Milton and Caroline Spelman. These MPs will be cajoled into supporting Mr Johnson’s deal when it is voted on again, with the threat of being kicked out of the party if they do not.

A reading of Saturday’s vote also suggests that out of the independent Conservatives — Tory MPs who have lost the party whip — 20 are expected to support Mr Johnson’s deal.

Despite today's farce, which lost me potentially hundreds of profitable betting winnings (
), I still think the votes are there for Boris to win in the next week as per the FT article above.

We are inching closer to a orderly Brexit outcome, helped by the fact that the EU are now desperate to get this sorted.

Parliaments reputation has sunk even lower among the mass of the population who just want Brexit sorted. There will be consequences at the next ge.

As for the DUP, my anger towards them is growing. If the Irish Republic want northern Ireland back I will be happy to hand it to them.

And many English and Welsh Brexiteers will be feeling the same now.

[Little John]

You can be as angry as you like, but the DUP have every right to demand that they be fully part of any exit from the EU.

However, what I found striking was Johnson's unequivocal re-statement he will NOT renegotiate an extension under ANY circumstances and that the law (the Benn act) does not legally compel him to do so.

He may or may not be considered stupid/incorrect for making that statement. But, I don't think he is bluffing.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... ament-vote

[Little John]

Galloway's take on events today

https://www.rt.com/uk/471333-brexit-vote-uk-galloway/

By postponing a vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, MPs have only complicated Britain’s divorce from the EU, and in the case of Labour, stacked their own “electoral funeral pyres,� former parliamentarian George Galloway told RT.

Opposition MPs and protesters in the streets of London celebrated the passing of the so-called Letwin amendment earlier on Saturday. The amendment to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal requires Johnson to seek an extension to the October 31 Brexit deadline from the EU, so that formal ratification legislation can be debated and passed in both Houses of Parliament.

For the 322 MPs who voted in favour of Letwin, their victory was “pyrrhic,� Galloway told RT. The former lawmaker called the amendment a “childish, schoolboy jape� aimed at “frustrating the will of the British people,� who simply want Britain’s exit from the EU to be over and done with.

For Labour too, the decision to back an amendment authored by Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin – an architect of Margaret Thatcher’s much-maligned Poll Tax in the 1980s – “is now very clear for everyone to see,� he continued.

Though required to do so following the passage of the Letwin amendment, Boris Johnson has signaled that he will not seek an extension from Brussels, and insisted that he is not compelled by the law to do so. European Commission officials said earlier that they are now awaiting Johnson’s next move.

“I don’t believe that Boris Johnson will ask for an extension,� Galloway said. Even if he did, there might not be unanimous support in the EU’s Council of Ministers to grant him one, Galloway added.

“They said that Johnson wanted no deal, and then he got a deal,� the former Scottish lawmaker said, referring to Remainers in parliament. “They said that they were holding out, because they could not countenance for a moment the threat to peace in Ireland, and then Ireland got behind the deal.�

“Indeed, but for the backwoodsmen of the DUP, every party – including SInn Fein – are now fully behind the deal. Brussels and the EU are behind the deal.�

With the tides in Johnson’s favor, Galloway sees the British Parliament finding a way to pass the deal before October 31. Failing that, Remainers could be faced with the ironic result of leaving without a deal at all, “the very thing that today’s parliamentary opposition always claimed they wanted least of all.�

[cubes]

The deal just means a disorderly no-deal brexit when it comes time to extend the withdrawl period. It's not possible to fully prepare for an exit with no deal from the EU even after another year imo - another year of "is this going to happen, is that going to happen?". Although apparently the people "just want it over". The ONLY way to do that is to revoke article 50. A deal or no deal just means the brexit debate continues and is up in the air as to our future. Revoking is the only way to continue the discussion without the sword of damocles hanging over our head.

My prediction for the future - if we do get any sort of brexit I predict that LJs "you wait and see what will happen" will actually come to pass, in it lies the real way to a full-blooded civil war (brought on by overconfident brexiteer politicians high on their success) not remaining in the EU.

[UndercoverElephant]

However, what I found striking was Johnson's unequivocal re-statement he will NOT renegotiate an extension under ANY circumstances and that the law (the Benn act) does not legally compel him to do so.

He may or may not be considered stupid/incorrect for making that statement. But, I don't think he is bluffing.

Take careful note of exactly what he said. He didn't say he wouldn't send the letter. He said he wouldn't negotiate. Those aren't quite the same thing, and I'm not sure anybody actually knows what he meant, possibly including him.

[UndercoverElephant]

On a more general note - it is striking that many people are now increasingly confused about what they actually want to happen, or at least how to get to their desired endpoint or avoid their nightmare scenario. Revd Tess is not alone on that.

Labour's position has become trickier. Their problem is that their argument has been eroded from underneath them - they can't really claim anymore that the deal is bad because it doesn't protect workers rights, because the tories can just argue that this will be in the power of a future UK government to decide. It isn't clear what sort of different deal Labour would seek to renegotiate now. It is possible that this could be cleared up by a shift in policy.

Although perhaps it doesn't matter, since anybody who wants to stop brexit and lives in a tory-labour marginal still has to vote labour to maximise the chance of getting a second referendum.

Very hard to say how many people are going to vote BXP if the tories fight an election on getting this deal agreed.

[Lord Beria3]

Well my Mum, a hard Brexit ultra is now backing Boris deal. She was suspicious to begin with but was persuaded by Steve Baker endorsement.

If she, a swing Tory/ bxt party voter is now supportive of a orderly Brexit that would indicate others who back the BP also think the same.

Interestingly aaran banks has come out in support of Boris as well.

As for the DUP, LJ, they are trying to sabotage Brexit. F--k them. Like Farage they are now TRAITORS to the Brexit cause.

[adam2]

Latest reports state that the PM WILL send to the EU a letter requesting an extension of our membership, but that he WONT sign the letter.

[clv101]

Of course the letter was sent, there was never any doubt in that. The lack of signature and additional letters are likely irrelevant, just playing to his domestic audience in advance of GE.

[Little John]

Well my Mum, a hard Brexit ultra is now backing Boris deal. She was suspicious to begin with but was persuaded by Steve Baker endorsement.

If she, a swing Tory/ bxt party voter is now supportive of a orderly Brexit that would indicate others who back the BP also think the same.

Interestingly aaran banks has come out in support of Boris as well.

As for the DUP, LJ, they are trying to sabotage Brexit. F--k them. Like Farage they are now TRAITORS to the Brexit cause.

Farage is the only man in this country who is telling the truth about Brexit at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeermO1kjfs

[UndercoverElephant]

And so the leave vote is now shattered. Arguing with each other over who is a traitor and who is still loyal to the cause.

This is now pure political chaos.

[Little John]

The Leave vote may or may not be shattered right at this precise moment. That remains to be seen. But, that does not change the reality that Johnson's deal is essentially May's surrender treaty rehashed and the longer the delkay between it existing and it being implemented, the greater will be the realization of that amongst the public. So, from Johnson's perspective, the sooner he gets it in the bag the better.

[Vortex2]

A cynic would now say that the Remainers / Establishment have won.

They have prevaricated for so long & muddied the waters to such a degree that nobody has a clue what's going on any more.

Brexit will eventually fade away into an expensive mush of legislation.

[cubes]

But, that does not change the reality that Johnson's deal is essentially May's surrender treaty rehashed

Omg we agree on something brexit related.

A cynic would now say that the Remainers / Establishment have won.

I'd say the brexiteers/establishment have won. The "establishment" is as split as we are, boris, JRM etc could all be considered part of it as many remainers could be too.

[fuzzy]

It was always going to move to drawing a N-S line.

I vote Monmouth to Norwich. Let the borders choose their side. I love Bury and Bedford, but I guess they would feel Southern. I wouldn't miss Oxbridge and MFK.