Brexit process

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 17 Oct 2019, 14:33

Your wrong again UE.

Breaking news...

The President of the European Commission rules out granting an extension to the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

Jean-Claude Juncker tells reporters there is no need for an extension now there is a deal on the table.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2019, 16:54

Lord Beria3 wrote:Your wrong again UE.

Breaking news...

The President of the European Commission rules out granting an extension to the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

Jean-Claude Juncker tells reporters there is no need for an extension now there is a deal on the table.

No way will the EU refuse an extension if the UK asks for one. No way.

Saying there is no need is not the same as ruling it out.

If parliament votes this down, EU will insist on a long extension. 2 years maybe.

oobers · Post by **oobers** » 17 Oct 2019, 17:01

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:Your wrong again UE.

Breaking news...

The President of the European Commission rules out granting an extension to the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

Jean-Claude Juncker tells reporters there is no need for an extension now there is a deal on the table.
No way will the EU refuse an extension if the UK asks for one. No way.

Saying there is no need is not the same as ruling it out.

It's possible though that a pact was made - Johnson to EU "We'll give more concessions on UK side if you agree to not give an extension" on the basis that no extension granted would trump the Benn Act and MP's would cave in and vote for the deal?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2019, 17:50

oobers wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:Your wrong again UE.

Breaking news...

The President of the European Commission rules out granting an extension to the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

Jean-Claude Juncker tells reporters there is no need for an extension now there is a deal on the table.
No way will the EU refuse an extension if the UK asks for one. No way.

Saying there is no need is not the same as ruling it out.
It's possible though that a pact was made - Johnson to EU "We'll give more concessions on UK side if you agree to not give an extension" on the basis that no extension granted would trump the Benn Act and MP's would cave in and vote for the deal?

From the EU's point of view, that is too risky. They really don't want no deal, and the political process in the UK is likely to become very chaotic in the next couple of weeks.

oobers · Post by **oobers** » 17 Oct 2019, 18:03

UndercoverElephant wrote:
oobers wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: No way will the EU refuse an extension if the UK asks for one. No way.

Saying there is no need is not the same as ruling it out.
It's possible though that a pact was made - Johnson to EU "We'll give more concessions on UK side if you agree to not give an extension" on the basis that no extension granted would trump the Benn Act and MP's would cave in and vote for the deal?
From the EU's point of view, that is too risky. They really don't want no deal, and the political process in the UK is likely to become very chaotic in the next couple of weeks.

Sure, they really don't want a no deal so if they thought there was any credence in the idea that one country might veto the extension request (thereby triggering no deal), might they think it better to put their full weight behind 'no extension', to reduce the risk of MP's rejecting the deal?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2019, 18:11

They certainly want to give the impression they might not agree to an extension, in order to increase the chances of a deal. This is a no-lose strategy, since they can always change their stance if parliament votes it down.

I don't believe in this theory that Hungary will veto the extension at the behest of Johnson. They have too much to lose in terms of relationship with other EU countries, especially Ireland.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 17 Oct 2019, 20:53

Highly unlikely EU will agree to extension beyond June 2020 (when new finance round starts). Last thing the EU want is uncertainty whether UK is in or out from a budgeting perspective.

That may already make a 2nd referendum potentially out of bounds. Certainly 8 months, assuming a new government takes place within weeks, agrees terms of 2nd ref and its all done by summer 2020 is a massive ask.

Surely these things take a year to sort out.

And this assumes the EU agrees to any 2nd referendum - assuming there is a majority in the Commons.

Should the EU reject a long extension, it forces the options to deal, revoke or no hard Brexit. If the EU want an orderly Brexit they will need to push the Commons in that direction.

It won't take much since the vote will be very tight.

I suspect the vote this Saturday will be a narrow rejection, paving the way for a narrow support by 31st, assuming the EU bloc move to protect their interests and help Boris get it through parliament.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ettel.html

Look at these pictures - the EU look delighted about the prospects of a orderly Brexit. The EU are now the Brexiteers.

Time they cut the Remoaners in the UK off.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2019, 21:22

I kind of want this deal to go through, even though it will help the tories. It would really expose Theresa May as the completely useless waste of space she always was, and we will actually get brexit.

However, I still think it will narrowly fail, because the DUP won't back it, a handful of tories won't back it, and very few Labour MPs will defy the whip to vote against it.

My prediction: deal is rejected by 10-20 votes.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 17 Oct 2019, 22:32

My prediction: deal is rejected by 10-20 votes.

.. and then what happens?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2019, 22:45

Vortex2 wrote:My prediction: deal is rejected by 10-20 votes.

.. and then what happens?

Article 50 extension, general election.

Post by **clv101** » 17 Oct 2019, 23:26

2018: Northern Ireland inside the Customs Union + economic border in the Irish Sea = outrageous & unacceptable infringement on UKâ€™s integrity

2019: Northern Ireland inside the Customs Union + economic border in the Irish Sea = taking back control & a negotiating masterstroke

Been interesting to see reality catch up with Johnson.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Oct 2019, 02:38

clv101 wrote:
2018: Northern Ireland inside the Customs Union + economic border in the Irish Sea = outrageous & unacceptable infringement on UKâ€™s integrity

2019: Northern Ireland inside the Customs Union + economic border in the Irish Sea = taking back control & a negotiating masterstroke
Been interesting to see reality catch up with Johnson.

Will it be as interesting to see the mainland violent rebellion that will now inevitably emerge? Or is reality only interesting if it converges with your own prejudices? This will end with troops on the streets of the UK before my life is over.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 18 Oct 2019, 08:23

My prediction is defeat by 7 votes.

If the EU move to cut off the extension game they could push it through by 31st October.

Macron would be in his right to veto a long extension therefore killing prospects of a 2nd referendum.

That would probably force a bloc of labour mps to abstain in a 2nd vote prior to 31st and let the deal through parliament.

If the EU don't move to help boris looks like extension and ge.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Oct 2019, 08:43

There is simply no way the EU will intervene in the British political process in that way. They do not want to be accused of meddling, and they absolutely don't want to risk no deal.

I just saw Bridgen and Grieve on BBC news. Bridgen is going to vote for it, Grieve will vote against. That basically means that nearly all of the ERG will support it, but some of the anti-no-deal tories who were kicked out of the party will not. Without the DUP, that leaves Johnson needing about 20 Labour MPs to defy the whip, and that isn't going to happen. He'll get 10 at most.

Johnson to lose by 10 votes.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 18 Oct 2019, 12:02

FT and others are forecasting vote losing by a few votes.

Owen Jones reporting that senior labour figures think more labour mps are planning to back deal but keeping quiet.

We will see.