Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

Paul Mason is just the messenger. What I was actually talking about was Corbyn.

Do you accept that Corbyn is most certainly NOT an "establishment shill"?

Corbyn is the establishment's nemesis. No exaggeration. The prospect of Corbyn in Downing Street scares them senseless.

[Little John]

Paul Mason is just the messenger. What I was actually talking about was Corbyn.

Do you accept that Corbyn is most certainly NOT an "establishment shill"?

Corbyn is the establishment's nemesis. No exaggeration. The prospect of Corbyn in Downing Street scares them senseless.

Corbyn is a dead man walking in political terms. Or, at least, whatever socialist beliefs he ever professed to have are dead whatever happens to him. Which is why whatever happens to him is now irrelevant except in the minds of a diminishing band of blind acolytes of which you are clearly a member. It's truly pathetic to witness.

Jeremy Corbyn once championed the socialist possibilities of life outside the "bankers' EU". Yet now he allies himself with those who fear precisely those possibilities. The Remoaner cause is an affront to everything he once stood for, says Michael Northcott

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/10/0 ... s-beliefs/

[Lord Beria3]

I think we can safely ignore anything the absurd Paul Mason writes.

Back to eurointelligence...

A final push for a deal
There are two developments in the Brexit negotiations to look out for. After yesterday’s telephone call between Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson, the British PM will meet Leo Varadkar tomorrow to explore whether his proposed withdrawal agreement is at least negotiable - we presume it is, once you take the Stormont veto off the table.

We think it is not helpful to speculate on what Merkel may or may not have said. Nor do we think that Donald Tusk’s tweets have been helpful. You cannot simultaneously complain about politicians resorting to a blame game, and then blame the other side.

As the negotiations in Brussels have now halted, Johnson and Leo Varadkar will attempt another, final round of talks tomorrow. If they break down, we will be heading towards an extension on October 31 - preceded by noise, legal challenges, and who knows, maybe an accident or an unforeseen event along the way. Our baseline remind an extension, followed by a UK election won by the Tories. We have been more cautious than others on the likelihood of an early election. See also our electoral analysis story below. The Telegraph columnist Philip Johnston also believes that an early election should not be taken for granted, given that a second referendum would be much more advantageous for Remain supporters. And in reality it would have to be done outside the scope of the fixed term parliaments act, for example through a dedicated bill.

Hillary Benn, the author of the Brexit extension bill, said last night that the House of Commons will push for a second referendum possibly next week. He said he was not sure whether it would have a majority, we don’t think that the maths we presented in a recent article has shifted sufficiently in favour of a second referendum. Another issue with the second referendum is what question to put in to the voters in the absence of a deal - Remain vs what exactly? Remain vs no-deal? There is a logic in Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate a deal and then put it to a referendum. You need a credible leave option.

Benn’s own extension bill makes the prospect of a majority in favour of the second referendum less likely because the pressure is off. This is the trouble with extensions. They resolve nothing.

Both the Times and the Guardian report this morning that EU ambassadors were already discussing, and disagreeing on, the length of an extension. Some are arguing for a very long extension, a prospect we consider ill-advised and likely to backfire. We believe that the persistent moralistic intervention by Tusk has strengthened the Brexit camp in the UK. The more you push, the bigger the push-back.

The Times writes that one influential government is calling for a very short extension to force the issue one way or the other.

We presume, but cannot be certain, that this is France and/or Spain. We think there is a logic in a three-month extension, as it would allow the UK to hold elections.

Extension is becoming unpopular in the EU. The Times reports on a poll taken in six EU countries, in which a large majority disagreed with an extension. The Guardian writes that an outlier view in Brussels was for an extension all the way to the next general election in 2022, while some governments preferred the summer of next year. Those that favour a long extension include Tusk.

There is a logical connection between next week’s attempt in the UK parliament to seek a majority for a second referendum, and the EU discussion on extension. If next week’s attempt fails, or is postponed, the argument for a long extension will be harder to win in the European Council. If the UK parliament does not have a majority in favour of a second referendum, then the only political way out is another general election - with an extension tailored to it.

It is the prospect that Johnson might win those elections outright that is now pushing back against that scenario.

[UndercoverElephant]

Corbyn is a dead man walking in political terms.

That is not an answer to the question I actually asked you.

I asked you whether he was part of the establishment, or its nemesis.

Your failure to answer the question masks a deep contradiction in what you are saying. You rant endlessly about the establishment, and yet it is you, not I, who is really defending the establishment.

It remains to be seen whether Corbyn comes out of this a winner or not. But either way, the truth is that he is without doubt the clearest example of an anti-establishment political leader in this country right now, and you despise him.

I think you are an establishment shill.

[UndercoverElephant]

It is the prospect that Johnson might win those elections outright that is now pushing back against that scenario.

Eurointelligence is seriously overestimating the chance of the tories winning a general election. I don't the the EU thinks he's going to win either.

[Little John]

....I think you are an establishment shill.

So, that'll be me and all of the Labour leavers in the north - which is to say, most of the (erstwhile) Labour voters in the north - that are establishment shills then will it? Or, maybe you agree with Mr Mason that we are all just thick, racist, Red Tories up north... right?

Okay, so that confirms it then.

You really have lost the f***ing plot....

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

October 10, 2019

What if UK parliament rejects both elections and the second referendum?

Is the deal dead already? Experience has taught us to be careful. The EU has a history of last-minute breakthroughs. In this case, it depends very much on Leo Varadkar. Today's meeting in Liverpool with Boris Johnson may bring some progress. There was a leaked report yesterday that the EU was exploring a compromise option, which is only telling us that somebody, somewhere, is still fighting for a compromise. 

The big decision is likely to be Saturday, 19 October, right after the EU summit. The UK parliament will meet to seize control of the order paper, and then push through one of several potential courses of action. UK parliamentarians know that they cannot just force the prime minister to write an extension letter without a concrete political plan. They will have to decide between elections and a second referendum. It is possible that they fail to do either.

We still have no evidence of a shift in the position of a sufficient number of MPs in favour of a second referendum. The reason we think this is likely to fail is the parallel necessity to agree to a plausible leave option. The only alternative would be Theresa May's unloved withdrawal deal. There may be a majority in the parliament now in favour of that deal - if the government were to support it. But we struggle a see a majority simultaneously in favour of resurrecting May's deal and of a second referendum. And be careful what you wish for. That would be a second referendum boycotted by the government and the Leave campaign on the grounds that there is no credible Leave option on the table. A farcical second referendum would not only fail to settle the issue, but mobilise the leave vote to support Johnson at the next general election whenever it comes. A returning Tory-majority parliament would then press on with Brexit.

The more probable alternative option is elections. But don't take this for granted either. There is a big pushback. Jeremy Corbyn will today double down on his promise to offer Johnson an election once an extension is granted. The Sun's political editor reports that Corbyn is ready to offer Johnson an election date of November 26 in a speech he will make later today. A vote in the Commons, under the fixed term parliament act, would have to take place on October 21. We are not sure that there would be a two-thirds majority in the Commons for an election. There is a lot of opposition within Labour to an election, including from the likes of John McDonnell the shadow Chancellor. The motion may fall short of the two-thirds majority required. In that case, another procedure would have to be considered, either a vote of no confidence brought by Corbyn, or an act of parliament to override the FTPA.

Now consider this situation: suppose parliaments fails to agree a second referendum as well as elections. What then? In this case, it is possible that France along with a few other countries will refuse a Brexit extension. It would be deeply ironic if, in the end, the UK parliament and not Johnson were to frustrate the Brexit extension. 

[Lord Beria3]

Positivity from uk/Ireland meeting today.

[UndercoverElephant]

....I think you are an establishment shill.

So, that'll be me and all of the Labour leavers in the north - which is to say, most of the (erstwhile) Labour voters in the north - that are establishment shills then will it? Or, maybe you agree with Mr Mason that we are all just thick, racist, Red Tories up north... right?

Okay, so that confirms it then.

You really have lost the f***ing plot....

We'll see who has got the better grasp of what is really going on. There's going to be a general election this year, and you and I have very different ideas about how that's going to go.

[UndercoverElephant]

Positivity from uk/Ireland meeting today.

Nah. That's just both sides not wanting to look like they were the ones who ended the negotiations.

[Little John]

....I think you are an establishment shill.

So, that'll be me and all of the Labour leavers in the north - which is to say, most of the (erstwhile) Labour voters in the north - that are establishment shills then will it? Or, maybe you agree with Mr Mason that we are all just thick, racist, Red Tories up north... right?

Okay, so that confirms it then.

You really have lost the f***ing plot....

We'll see who has got the better grasp of what is really going on. There's going to be a general election this year, and you and I have very different ideas about how that's going to go.

Oh, I don't claim to know how it will go. I know what I hope will happen. But that is a different matter.

No, I know only a very limited number of things for sure. the first is that there has been and continues to be a concerted attempt,. by the ruling class, to rob me and millions like me of the one voice we possess - our vote. Either they do not succeed in the short run, in which case there is going to be democratic reckoning over all of this. Or, they do succeed in the short run, in which case, there is going to be a bloody reckoning over it at some point.

In the end, the only thing I know with absolute certainty is, when push has come to shove and when all of the bullshit is stripped away, which side I am on. I can also see clearly enough, which side others are on, including you mister.

[UndercoverElephant]

Oh, I don't claim to know how it will go. I know what I hope will happen. But that is a different matter.

No, I know only a very limited number of things for sure. the first is that there has been and continues to be a concerted attempt,. by the ruling class, to rob me and millions like me of the one voice we possess - our vote. Either they do not succeed in the short run, in which case there is going to be democratic reckoning over all of this. Or, they do succeed in the short run, in which case, there is going to be a bloody reckoning over it at some point.

In the end, the only thing I know with absolute certainty is, when push has come to shove and when all of the bullshit is stripped away, which side I am on. I can also see clearly enough, which side others are on, including you mister.

I'm not sure you really do. In reality I'm not on either of the sides you see, which is maybe why you have had a long-running problem really understanding where I am coming from. I'm as anti-establishment as it is possible to be, and I fully agree with you that if brexit is cancelled, there will have been a major failure of democracy in this country.

The truth is that this is ultimately a massive F--k-up by the EU. The Great European Project was supposed be about building a political and economic entity capable of competing on the world stage with the Big Boys, and at the same time making sure there is never another major European war. If that goal is to be achieved it was absolutely essential to keep the UK on board. The EU was warned first by Major and then by Cameron that unless they were willing to accept serious reform - unless they were willing to turn the EU into something the UK could remain a part of without it leading to massive internal political problems in the UK - that the UK would eventually leave. Those warnings fell on deaf ears, because the people in charge of the EU were arrogant enough to believe that the UK would stay even if there was no serious reform.

As soon as Leave won the referendum, a whole series of extremely serious problems were set up that we are nowhere near resolving. The future of the EU is in serious jeopardy, and the way things are going I would not rule out some sort of paramilitary or full-blown military conflict involving Ireland. At the very least, there is going to have to be significant constitutional change in the UK.

Am I really "on the side of the establishment"? I don't think so.

[PS_RalphW]

EU appears to be entering intensive talks phase with the government on Johnson's latest agreement proposal.

If this succeeds, the UK parliament will need to the agreed deal in crunch vote next Saturday.

My guess is that any deal acceptable to the EU on NI will be unacceptable to the DUP and/or the ERG and will be voted down.

Then there will an extension and election.

[Lord Beria3]

We will see.

Prospects for a deal are rising.

[UndercoverElephant]

I agree with Ralph. I cannot see how a deal will work. The crux is a question of sovereignty. Unless full sovereignty is returned the UK, the deal will not get through parliament. That means whatever the arrangements for the Irish border are, the UK must ultimately either retain control over everything happening in Northern Ireland, or there must be a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism. The problem is that that is exactly what the Irish government won't agree to.