Syria watch...

[raspberry-blower]

More on the Syrian Arab Army's move into Manbij and the political and diplomatic implications therein:

The Arab move is also perceived as a counter to Iranian influence in Syria. In this it will fail. Syria was rescued from the all out attack on it by Iran's intervention. It was the Iranian General Soleimani who convinced Russia to commit troops to Syria. It was Iran that spent billions to prop up the Syrian government while the Gulf Arabs spent even more to take it down. Syria will not forget who are its foes and who are its real friends.

Air traffic connections from Damascus to Arab countries are coming back. Last week a direct connection with Tunisia was revived. In January Gulf-Air, the official airline carrier for Bahrain, will again offer flights from Damascus. The Arab League, which in 2012 kicked out Syria, will invite it back in. Syria may well accept the offer, but only in exchange for a large compensation.

An Israeli air attack on Syrian military installments on December 26 largely failed. The Israeli jets fired some 16 stand-off bombs from Lebanese air space. They cowardly hid behind two commercial airliners which were on their way from the Gulf to Europe. This made it impossible for the Syrian air defense to directly attack the Israeli jets. Most of the Israeli projectiles were destroyed by the Syrian short-range air defenses. A Syrian missile was fired against Israel proper. It was a reminder that new rules of engagement, as announced, have been established. Attacks on Syria will be replied to by direct attacks on Israel. The missile shot ended the Israeli attack.

Israel, like others, will learn that any further attacks on Syria are futile and will only lead to effective retaliations. The war on Syria, while not yet over, is drawing down. Syria's political isolation is ending. Those who insist on continuing it will in the end lose out.

Moon of Alabama:
Syrian Sitrep: Army Regains Northern Territory: Political Isolation Ends

[raspberry-blower]

Alastair Crooke: Entering a Major Regional Reset: The Syria Outcome will haunt those who started this war

It should be obvious now that we are entering a major regional re-set: The US is leaving Syria. Bolton’s attempted withdrawal-reversal has been rebuffed. And the US, in any event, forfeited the confidence of the Kurds in consequence to the original Trump statement. The Kurds now are orientated toward Damascus and Russia is mediating a settlement.

It may take a while, but the US is going. Kurdish forces (other than those linked with the PKK) are likely to be assimilated into the Syrian army, and the ‘buffer’ will not be directed against Turkey, but will be a mix of Syrian army and Kurdish elements – under Syrian command – but whose overall conduct towards Turkey will be invigilated by Russia. And the Syrian army will, in due time, clear Idlib from a resurgent al-Qaida (HTS).

So expect more attacks on US forces by ISIS to delay this process as much as possible, then.

See also
Frederico Pieraccini:
Final steps in Syria's successful struggle for peace and sovereignty

[adam2]

"Israeli jets attack Iranian targets within Syria"

Various reports state. Probably another fairly minor "tit for tat" attack, but the overall trend does look rather worrying.

[raspberry-blower]

On fake news and Western MSM propaganda:

The Duran: Douma chemical weapons hoax exposed by BBC producer

So as to be absolutely clear, on February 13th, BBC Syria’s Producer said he could “without a doubt� prove that the Douma hospital scene was false, a White Helmets (WH) fake event.

He said “the Douma Hospital scene was staged. No fatalities occurred in the hospital. All the WH, activists and people I spoke to are either in Idlib or Euphrates Shield areas.

Only one person was in Damascus.�

The evidence is seen above in the tweet at 05:33 – 13 February 2019, the BBC Producer wrote on his personal, verified Twitter account, which has since been made private or perhaps blocked by persons or governments unknown, anyway someone who controls Twitter.

[raspberry-blower]

A year on from the Douma gas attack that wasn't - Western MSM is busy ignoring it.
However, evidence has emerged that undermines the official narrative

Caitlin Johnstone: Confirmed: The Chemical Weapons Assessment contradicting the Official Syrian narrative IS authentic

This should be a major news headline all around the world, but of course it is not. As of this writing the mass media have remained deathly silent about the document despite its enormous relevance to an international headline story last year which occupied many days of air time. It not only debunks a major news story that had military consequences, it casts doubt on a most esteemed international independent investigative body and undermines the fundamental assumptions behind many years of western reporting in the area. People get lazy about letting the media tell them what’s important and they assume if it’s not in the news, it’s not a big deal. This is a big deal, this is a major story and it is going unreported, which makes the media’s silence a part of the story as well.

Also conspicuously absent from discussion has been the war propaganda firm Bellingcat, which is usually the first to put the most establishment-friendly spin possible on any development in this area. If Eliot Higgins can’t even work out how to polish this turd, you know it’s a steamer.

See also:
Moon of Alabama: Syria - OPCW Engineering assessment: The Douma chemical weapon incident was staged

Rob Slane: The Shrinking Credibility of OPCW

[PS_RalphW]

Turkish troops invade Kurdish held northern Syria after (announced) departure of US troops acting as border guards.

Putin will not be unhappy.

Edit

Political analysis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... gamble-yet

A lot of innocent people will get killed. As always. My take is that Erdogan wants to control the border area so he can kick out the 2M Syrian refugees by 'voluntary' repatriation.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

The Kurds are about the best folks you can support in the ME outside of Israel.

[PS_RalphW]

For once I agree with you, apart from the last 3 words

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

For once I agree with you, apart from the last 3 words

Huh.

[raspberry-blower]

Moon of Alabama: Syria - Turkey Invades Again

[BritDownUnder]

I think President Trump has made a good decision. Supporting the Kurds because they are not fronting onto an international waterway is unsustainable strategically. The only way they have been supported up until now is by 'bribing' the Iraqis and Turks. Trump could save a lot of money by pulling out.

I say the US should withdraw and if necessary supply the Kurds with suitable weapons to wage asymmetric warfare against their opponents. Let the whole area descend into a Battle Royale kind of mess with Turks, ISIS and Saudis on one side against Syria, Iran, Iraq and Kurds on the other. The Israelis probably can't believe their luck with all their enemies fighting each other.

About the Kurds in particular they are hardly worthy of help. Just over 100 years ago they were willingly helping the Turks murder Armenians and Assyrians in order to settle their lands.

[kenneal - lagger]

I know a few people of Kurdish origin living locally. They provide the best Doner Kebabs around. They are also very good, friendly hospitable people.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Combat reliable partners outside of the Israelis in the ME are hard to find, and the Kurds seemed like some good ones.

[BritDownUnder]

I think President Trump has made a good decision.

Abandoning ones allies is really a good decision.

Supporting the Kurds because they are not fronting onto an international waterway is unsustainable strategically. The only way they have been supported up until now is by 'bribing' the Iraqis and Turks. Trump could save a lot of money by pulling out.

Sure, AMERICA could save a lot of money abandoning their allies. I wonder how Australia would do by themselves if the ChiComs decided they would rather own your resources rather than buy them?

I say the US should withdraw and if necessary supply the Kurds with suitable weapons to wage asymmetric warfare against their opponents. Let the whole area descend into a Battle Royale kind of mess with Turks, ISIS and Saudis on one side against Syria, Iran, Iraq and Kurds on the other. The Israelis probably can't believe their luck with all their enemies fighting each other.

America providing military support for allies to fight other NATO alliance countries is a bit of a counterproductive exercise.

The Israelis really are coming out ahead in all of this. Better them then most of the other participants.

About the Kurds in particular they are hardly worthy of help. Just over 100 years ago they were willingly helping the Turks murder Armenians and Assyrians in order to settle their lands.

The same could be said about the Brits, Americans, and just about every other country that has been around for awhile. Boer concentration camps spring to mind? The partitioning of India maybe and knock on consequences maybe?

Ghosts in every countries past I imagine. Combat reliable partners outside of the Israelis in the ME are hard to find, and the Kurds seemed like some good ones.

You could argue that the US abandoned South Vietnam on cost grounds. perhaps you should have encouraged "Kurdistanisation" in that region, declared victory and left. It is also interesting to note that there was also talk of Presidential impeachment at that time as well.
So to answer your question - abandoning your allies, or more correctly the enemies of your enemies - is a good decision when it does not benefit you. I think eventually you will be forced to abandon Taiwan when the Chinese get too strong.

The Kurds were controlling large areas of Syria north of the Euphrates river - almost half of the area of the whole country including large areas with a majority Sunni-Arab population while the Kurds are only 10% of the Syrian population as a whole. This is strategically untenable along with the US support for them which requires the cooperation or either Iraq or Turkey.
I still agree with Trump that you have wasted $5 trillion dollars in the Middle East with no tangible gain.
Your Iran policy just results in China and a few other countries getting discounted Iranian oil at the same time ruining the Iran economy.

As for Australia the Chinese are getting stronger in this region every day. They already own a lot of Australian resources but don't export much from Australia if they can get it from Africa or South America. I would like to see Australia getting nukes right now as a deterrence. Stopping immigration and cash to Labor politicians from Mainland China might also be a good idea. As for the strategic agreement between the US and Australia I understand that Australia pays for all US bases here and you got strategic support from Australia in Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan. I don't recall many Kurds helping you in those places but I do think the Turks helped you in one battle in the Korean War.
You also get access to the Indian Ocean from Fremantle Naval Base and use of long range radar, eavesdropping and satellite tracking hardware located in Australia so I think you get a good deal. Pull out if you wish and blind yourself in one eye.

By all means over-extend yourselves strategically on borrowed Chinese money. You will go the way of the Western Roman Empire. It won't end well for anyone except China.

[cubes]

This really provides an incentive for groups to co-operate with the USA in future doesn't it?

"Support the american position and we'll just dump you when you're no longer useful". Us in the UK need to heed this warning too imo.