Brexit process

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 04 Oct 2019, 23:08

clv101 wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:https://blondemoney.co.uk/2019/08/no-de ... e-stopped/

Blondemoney are the only consultancy in town who are calling for a no deal Brexit on 31st Oct.

Betting odds on betfair are 7 to 1. Huge return if Blondemoney are right!!
They aren't right though. It's been obvious for years that no deal isn't going to happen.

Then it's being obvious for years that growing civil disobedience is coming at best and, at worst, martial law and civil insurrection. Fine, bring it on.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 04 Oct 2019, 23:37

Little John wrote:
clv101 wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:https://blondemoney.co.uk/2019/08/no-de ... e-stopped/

Blondemoney are the only consultancy in town who are calling for a no deal Brexit on 31st Oct.

Betting odds on betfair are 7 to 1. Huge return if Blondemoney are right!!
They aren't right though. It's been obvious for years that no deal isn't going to happen.
Then it's being obvious for years that growing civil disobedience is coming at best and, at worst, martial law and civil insurrection. Fine, bring it on.

The only way no deal can happen is if Johnson gets a solid commons majority for it in a general election after October 31st. I still can't see how he is going to get that, but there's all sorts of unknown unknowns ahead, so that could still change.

I also still think we could end up in a different sort of limbo state to the one we're currently in, which would take the edge of any insurrection. Only the Reverend seems to have take this idea seriously, but it's looking like the baseline scenario to me: 2nd referendum where spoiled ballot papers beats the credible leave option by miles and remain falls short of 50%. If that happens then we'll have this weird situation where remain has won on a technicality, but the majority of people, including a lot of remainers, believe the result has no moral legitimacy. The less intelligent of the online remainiacs (and Swinson) will insist that it's all over and they won, but it will be impossible for the political establishment to do so.

I don't think you seriously considered this when I suggested it last time, but this could really lead to major constitutional reform, shaped by the need to actually resolve the European question properly. To put in terms you are more likely to respond positively to, there would have to be an admission from the establishment that our democratic processes have suffered a major malfunction, and something would have to be changed which would allow the European question to be conclusively resolved.

What's the point in rioting if that admission is forthcoming?

If the admission doesn't come - if there is a denial that democracy has malfunctioned - then there will indeed be insurrection, and so there should be.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 05 Oct 2019, 09:36

UE, the flaws of a 2nd referendum are increasingly known on the continent too.

https://m.spiegel.de/international/euro ... 89997.html

Even de Spiegel dismisses the option of a 2nd referendum. The german establishment don't want us in the EU anymore.

That's a game changer.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 05 Oct 2019, 12:00

Lord Beria3 wrote:UE, the flaws of a 2nd referendum are increasingly known on the continent too.

https://m.spiegel.de/international/euro ... 89997.html

Even de Spiegel dismisses the option of a 2nd referendum. The german establishment don't want us in the EU anymore.

That's a game changer.

I basically agree with that. The EU has seriously miscalculated here. It thought that because it was so much bigger than the UK, it could dictate the terms of any withdrawal agreement. The Irish in particular thought they could get away with make unrealistic demands because the UK would have no choice but to agree. Big mistake. Totally failed to account for political reality in the UK. The EU needs to realise that it has to compromise - really compromise, rather than expecting the UK to make most of the concessions.

Will it actually do so? I remain unconvinced. I still think we're heading for an extension and an election in December.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 05 Oct 2019, 12:20

Slightly surprised to find I agree with you UE!

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Oct 2019, 16:55

Right... Okay... So, that second referendum/Brino strategy is going down really well for Labour....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -of-labour

....The Conservatives have opened up a 15-point lead over Labour following the party conference season, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

The Tories are up two points to 38%, compared with a week ago, while Labour is down one point on 23%. The Liberal Democrats have dropped five points to 15%.....

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 07 Oct 2019, 18:15

Yup, the wikipedia polling trends show the Tories increasing their lead in the past week.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Oct 2019, 18:59

Little John wrote:Right... Okay... So, that second referendum/Brino strategy is going down really well for Labour....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -of-labour

....The Conservatives have opened up a 15-point lead over Labour following the party conference season, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

The Tories are up two points to 38%, compared with a week ago, while Labour is down one point on 23%. The Liberal Democrats have dropped five points to 15%.....

And in other polls the tory lead over labour is 5%. They are meaningless. Wait till an election is called and we have clarity about any tory-bxp pact. Even then the polls will probably be all over the place, but they will be a hell of a lot more meaningful than they are now.

The models are broken. Polling companies use historical data to work out how to extrapolate national figures from samples of less than 2000, but brexit has rendered useless the algorithms which do the extrapolation. That's why there is such a massive variability in the figures from different polling companies.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 07 Oct 2019, 21:47

Wouldn't go that far.

The Tories have had a consistent lead for a while now - that is worth of note.

https://www.cityam.com/now-most-leavers ... nt-happen/

While the majority of Leave and Conservative voters said a delay to Brexit would not be Johnsonâ€™s fault in early September â€“ when confidence it would be delivered on time peaked â€“ the number who think the Prime Minister would be blameless has now risen further.

65 per cent of Conservative voters believe Johnson would not be at fault for a delay, up from 59 per cent, while 64 per cent of Leavers agree, up from 60 per cent a month ago.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 08 Oct 2019, 07:07

Yes, right now the tories have a lead over labour in the polls. That much is clear. What is not at all clear is what this tells us about probable results at an election.

A lot of people who are telling the pollsters they intend to vote tory are doing so on the assumption that Johnson is still going to deliver some sort of brexit on October 31st.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 08 Oct 2019, 08:33

I don't know any leave supporters who genuinely think we are leaving on 31st October.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 08 Oct 2019, 11:06

Latest missive from Mr Cummings

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/h ... otiations/

Post by **adam2** » 08 Oct 2019, 11:16

A deal is now said to be "essentially impossible"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

And since leaving without a deal has been ruled effectively illegal, looks like another extension.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 08 Oct 2019, 11:28

Interesting times.

Looks like Cummings is essentially goading the EU to 'interfere' in internal politics.

Something they have done in the past (Eire, Spain, Italy, Greece) but always denied.

Have they got the theological determination to do it?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Oct 2019, 17:36

stumuz1 wrote:Latest missive from Mr Cummings

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/h ... otiations/

F--k, I like Cummings.