Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

Bloomberg reporting Ireland is about to cave on the backstop:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rexit-deal

[PS_RalphW]

The news all over the BBC is that Johnson has struck a deal with the DUP to replace the backstop with 4 years of double borders in NI followed by a binary choice for NI between joining EU regulations or sticking with the double borders. This will be presented to the EU as a take it we leave with no deal, no further negotiations.

Johnson and DUP both know that this crosses several EU red lines and they will turn it down flat.

Johnson then is faced with trying to break the law in order to force through no deal.

[RevdTess]

People want to connect. They want to feel part of a collective. They want their families and their communities and their votes to matter. They want respect and power.

What I find interesting about this new sort of anti-woke argument is that so-called woke liberal elites like me actually also want exactly this: to connect, to feel part of a collective, to want our communities and votes to matter. All those voting Green or becoming communal-anarchists or not voting because 'all the politicians are the same' have had decades of being disenfranchised and ignored, which is why it was such an unbelievable shock when those who have always seemed to have power - the working class (through Labour) and the wealthy and aristocratic (through the Tories) declare themselves to be the ones whose democratic views have been ignored, and declare the so-called 'woke' as the elitists doing the ignoring.

I find myself constantly searching for the nexus of solidarity that we can all agree on. The 'woke' are not individualists. We are fundamentally communal, seeking solidarity among all who are oppressed and isolated by those with power (who are the true individualists, since they need no one except themselves).

What I see is the elites causing rifts between those who should be allies - the 'woke' and the 'working class'. Like in the movie Pride, there is often tension and discomfort between these groups, but really we want the same things - solidarity and mutual respect and acceptance - so we can really care for each other and ignore those elites who want to isolate everyone and make everyone dependent on how much money they have.

[Vortex2]

Tess:

We are fundamentally communal, seeking solidarity among all who are oppressed and isolated by those with power (who are the true individualists, since they need no one except themselves).

Oh dear, oh dear.

IMHO collectivism and many of the other -isms are simply structures used by the socially weak and marginalised to control others who are brighter, better looking etc.

Teams of Morlocks bringing down the Eloi.

The world has been designed and built by individualists and elitists, relying on - and supporting - the masses.

We need more Elon Musks and fewer 'woke' snowflakes.

[PS_RalphW]

So we a have a proto deal with the DUP on board, and hints from members of the ERG and labour MPs that they would be prepared to vote for it, whilst the cascade of feedback from Europe is that the 'deal' drives a coach and horses through their red lines over Ireland, and Johnson announce a new proroguing of parliament, and on this thread silence.

Is this such a blatantly transparent false flag operation that no-one feels the need to even mention it? or is it that the regular posters are so wrapped up in their imaginary worlds that you don't want to face the reality of politics in the UK today?

[Little John]

So, enlighten us. What is the "reality" of politics in the UK today?

[stumuz1]

whilst the cascade of feedback from Europe is that the 'deal' drives a coach and horses through their red lines over Ireland,

Yes, but, we have had over the last two years the media in the UK raising everything the EU has said to 'unalienable' truth!
Maybe, their red lines are a bit pink? Much to the chagrin of true believers.

and Johnson announce a new proroguing of parliament, and on this thread silence.

The PM is allowed to prorogue. Irrespective of the Judicial power grab of the judiciary last week.

Is this such a blatantly transparent false flag operation that no-one feels the need to even mention it? or is it that the regular posters are so wrapped up in their imaginary worlds that you don't want to face the reality of politics in the UK today?

The reality is we have a Parliament which is way out of step with the constituents and the democratic mandate. However, we have become used to the double speak of politicians (jobs first brexit, no one voted to be poorer, must bring the final vote back to the people) etc.

Is it really surprising that a lot of people have tuned out?

As for the reality of UK politics, don't you think that its 'limits to growth' writ large?

[kenneal - lagger]

Here's a good take on what Boris is up to.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

Is the EU about to make its first serious error in the Brexit process?

We are at a dangerous point in the Brexit process - where at least some people are about to make big mistakes. The number of mistakes made by various UK prime ministers and MPs has been amply documented. But we think that the EU is now at risk of a big tactical miscalculation due to an insufficient understanding of UK politics. We see the early signs of this happening as a result of the flat-out rejection of Boris Johnson’s proposal. We agree that there are many problems with the proposal, including giving Stormont a veto. But the proposal is solid enough as a starting bid, for which it was designed.

The EU could inadvertently trigger a no-deal Brexit. At the moment, the consensus in Brussels is that a Brexit extension is certain, so that there is no real hard deadline. Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator and who knows Johnson well, writes in the Telegraph this morning that the prime minister privately says that he will probably have to extend. So game, set and match for the EU?

We would agree that the risk of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 is vanishingly small, but risk of it happening eventually is rising. At Eurointelligence we have been warning for some time that the risks of a no-deal Brexit have been widely underestimated. But we were cautious not to elevate the no-deal scenario to becoming our baseline. 

If the EU were to reject the current proposal flat out, that would change. The EU should consider very carefully that Johnson yesterday managed to receive support not only from the DUP, but also from the rebel Tories who lost their whip over the Benn extension legislation. The EU does not want to give Johnson a believable excuse for a no-deal Brexit: having come up with a reasonable proposal whose rejections indicates that the EU was not serious even to engage with the idea of a dual border - one for customs and one for regulation. We think that duality is not only a reasonable starting position, but in fact the only way to bridge the differences over the backstop. Once we pass the October 31 deadline, Johnson would then campaign on a theme of no-deal Brexit. That position could command a majority at that point, especially in view of Labour’s confused position. 

The reaction from Dublin to Boris Johnson's proposal was firm but without shutting doors. The major objections against the plan remain - customs union and the veto right of Northern Ireland. But in coordination with Brussels the Irish government put out the message that Johnson's proposals are not the basis of a deal, but the basis for discussions. Their expectation is that there will be an extension followed by an election which will give both sides time to work on this proposal for an agreeable compromise. 

Are the difficulties surmountable? Dublin would find it very hard to agree a deal involving checks on goods moving between North and South. And, while it would likely concede some role for the parliament in Stormont, the Irish government views a veto for the DUP as unsellable domestically, writes the Irish Times.

Is it possible that the EU secretly speculates on a second referendum? We think this would also be a miscalculation. But the more important point is that without a deal there can be no referendum - unless the EU wants to pitch Remain vs. no-deal. We disagree with Leo Varadkar’s optimism that Remain would win.

In any case, there is no majority in the UK parliament in favour of a referendum.

Is it possible that the EU is sceptical of Johnson’s proposals, not only because of the backstop but because of a general reluctance to accept regulatory divergence? If so, that position would validate the fears expressed in the UK about the backstop - that the EU would seek to trap the UK in an arrangement that allows no escape. The EU should therefore clarify within itself the ultimate goal of its position, rather than just hide behind Dublin. Do they want to avoid a no-deal Brexit to minimise disruption? Or do they want to stop regulatory divergence? There are overlapping, but not identical strategies to achieve those goals. This is also where the difference in views between France and Germany lies. The Germans are seeking to avoid disruption, but are not afraid of competition. Emmanuel Macron is not afraid of disruption, but very afraid of competition. 

We would agree that the Johnson plan has big problems, especially the part that gives Stormont veto power. And it remains to be seen whether the unity in the UK parliament would still hold if this aspect were negotiated away. But in our view it would be a miscalculation for the EU to reject the principle of separate borders for regulation and customs. If there is a solution to the backstop problem, it must be organised around this principle. It is also important to keep things in perspective. The amount of trade between the UK and the EU was over £600bn. Intra-Irish trade flows were about £5bn. Should the EU really want to endanger a large portion of the £600bn on the grounds that it is possible to blame Johnson for a no-deal Brexit? 

That would strike us as an entirely irrational strategy.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports on BBC and in Guardian that legal submissions by government to court in Scotland confirm that Johnson will send a Brexit extension request when required to do so by the Benn bill.

Government says 'We will leave EU by 31st October come what may".

Johnson is lying to the people or to the court. Both cannot be true.

[Little John]

Reports on BBC and in Guardian that legal submissions by government to court in Scotland confirm that Johnson will send a Brexit extension request when required to do so by the Benn bill.

Government says 'We will leave EU by 31st October come what may".

Johnson is lying to the people or to the court. Both cannot be true.

The only third possibility I can think of is that he will ask for an extension, but also do something else that makes such a request moot.

[Lord Beria3]

Precisely LJ.

I've been racking my mind all day on how that could happen.

Veto UK own extension request? Technically that could work. Question then would be whether parliament could agree to alternative pm before 31 October that commands a majority in the Commons.

That depends on lib dems and Tory rebel MPs who have refused Corbyn so far. Corbyn could agree to stand aside but so far he has ruled out that option.

Until one side backs down no majority so boris could remain as pm until after 31st deadline.

[Lord Beria3]

https://blondemoney.co.uk/2019/08/no-de ... e-stopped/

Blondemoney are the only consultancy in town who are calling for a no deal Brexit on 31st Oct.

Betting odds on betfair are 7 to 1. Huge return if Blondemoney are right!!

[UndercoverElephant]

Technically that could work.

...for about 5 minutes. There's no way parliament, the speaker and supreme court will let him get away with something like that. There's no point in even trying. He'll just end up looking foolish.

Corbyn could agree to stand aside but so far he has ruled out that option.

Corbyn will not stand aside. He will force Swinson to choose between backing him and letting a no deal happen. Her own supporters won't forgive her if she chooses the latter.

[clv101]

https://blondemoney.co.uk/2019/08/no-de ... e-stopped/

Blondemoney are the only consultancy in town who are calling for a no deal Brexit on 31st Oct.

Betting odds on betfair are 7 to 1. Huge return if Blondemoney are right!!

They aren't right though. It's been obvious for years that no deal isn't going to happen.