KSA Watch

[Little John]

This is starting to stink of a Yank False Flag operation to give the pretext for attacking Iran that they have been desperate for.

[adam2]

It's remarkable how little attention this attack is getting in the global media. Something of this magnitude has never happened before, we certainly haven't seen the last of the short term impact and in the long term it's realised a long held concern over their infrastructure vulnerability.

The media, and their customers and in many cases the advertising sponsors require novelty in news reports.
These attacks got a fair amount of media coverage when "new news" but they are now "yesterdays news" and worthy of relatively little coverage until another attack, or military retaliation occurs.

I agree that we have not yet seen the end of this. From the POV of the perpetrators, these attacks were a great success and therefore well worth repeating.

[BritDownUnder]

MoA: Damage at Saudi Oil Plant points to well targeted swarm attack

This 'swarm' theory may be better suited to low tech 'drones' in large numbers rather than high tech and cost cruise missiles in few numbers given the supposed precision of the attacks.

Looks to me that the intent may have been to cut the Saudi East-West pipeline thereby cutting exports from the 'safer' Red Sea ports to Europe. The Asian destined production was left unharmed.

It would be interesting to think about how effective a swarm attack made by a modern version of 100 German V1 flying bombs with GPS guidance attacking at once perhaps. What kind of air defence system could cope with attacks by these things?
Perhaps some kind of GPS signal cancelling equipment should be deployed by the Saudis assuming military GPS systems can also be jammed by these things.
Another form of defence may be the Goalkeeper CIWS rapid fire system that is found on ships for point defence protection against flying things. A screen around all Saudi oil facilities coupled with a no fly zone and GPS jamming may be the solution to this particular problem.

I can see the midnight oil being burnt at BAE Systems and Raytheon and similar companies on finding a solution to this problem. That'll be US$100bn thank you Mr Saudi oil prince. Just a week's oil earnings. Kaching! Kaching!

Probably not an inside job or even false flag but very cleverly done especially if it was done with ten drones costing $1200 each.

[adam2]

I have completed my panic buying.
40 liters of paraffin, in addition to existing stocks.
2 propane cylinders.
18 liters petrol.

[vtsnowedin]

I'm no expert, but I can't see drones being the primary weapon used in these attacks. The damage looks like it came from precision guided missiles, and if the photos are correctly reported, from a north or N/W direction. Clearly, the weapons used outsmarted any defensive weapons systems at the sites, and they would be close to state of the art for such a high profile target.

The damage pattern is what I would expect from cruise missiles.

Oil price trending up again, over 12% on the day

Cruise missiles are now decades old technology and developments in drone capability have now surpassed them in everything except warhead size. The drone operator sitting in an office on a different continent knows exactly where the drone is via GPS and can see his target clearly via the drones camera.
A refinery has flammable liquid in almost every foot of its maze of piping and tanks. All the drone has to do is break a pipe and light a match.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

I'm no expert, but I can't see drones being the primary weapon used in these attacks. The damage looks like it came from precision guided missiles, and if the photos are correctly reported, from a north or N/W direction. Clearly, the weapons used outsmarted any defensive weapons systems at the sites, and they would be close to state of the art for such a high profile target.

The damage pattern is what I would expect from cruise missiles.

Oil price trending up again, over 12% on the day

Cruise missiles are now decades old technology and developments in drone capability have now surpassed them in everything except warhead size. The drone operator sitting in an office on a different continent knows exactly where the drone is via GPS and can see his target clearly via the drones camera.
A refinery has flammable liquid in almost every foot of its maze of piping and tanks. All the drone has to do is break a pipe and light a match.

Not near conspiratorial enough for our cousins across the ocean. Need some CIA involvement somehow, perhaps a communique between US and UK diplomats saying something about "Iranian oil" (that should be enough to build a decent conspiracy on), then you can drum up something more exciting then "gee the Kuwaitis aren't investigating claims of sightings and drones and whatnot for nuttin...but they lie!!" type stuff.

People who want a conspiracy will find one. Period, full stop. The real exercise is determining whether or not they have even a kernel of fact in their claims, or just (as Ruppert once did) manufacture it whole cloth.

[PS_RalphW]

But that is not what they did. At least 8 strikes where on large dome structures, and each one was at exactly the same distance and angle from the top centre of the domes. Human operators are just not that consistent, the targets were clearly pre-programmed and machine (gps) guided. The story is that the way they defeated the air defences is that the defences were looking south, and the attack came from the north.

To some extent the exact technology is a minor side issue. SA was completely blind sided and shown to be vulnerable to economic attack.

[vtsnowedin]

But that is not what they did. At least 8 strikes where on large dome structures, and each one was at exactly the same distance and angle from the top centre of the domes. Human operators are just not that consistent, the targets were clearly pre-programmed and machine (gps) guided. The story is that the way they defeated the air defences is that the defences were looking south, and the attack came from the north.

To some extent the exact technology is a minor side issue. SA was completely blind sided and shown to be vulnerable to economic attack.

Still all within the capabilities of drone aircraft. Check out this drone and one of it's weapons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_A ... Q-9_Reaper
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-12_Paveway_II
But not to worry by this evening it will be something Trump did to get re-elected at least in the eyes of MSNBC.

[clv101]

To some extent the exact technology is a minor side issue. SA was completely blind sided and shown to be vulnerable to economic attack.

Of course this shouldn't come as a surprise. Almost everyone, almost always is highly vulnerable. 'Security' is largely a myth we chose to believe to help us sleep at night.

[adam2]

Oil prices have now returned to normal*

I suggest not becoming complacent however. I consider that further attacks are likely, as is a military response to the initial attacks.
Any sudden regime change in KSA might also have dramatic consequences.
Keep vehicle fuel tanks well filled, and keep a reserve if possible.
Remember that the law limits petrol storage to 30 liters, in most circumstances.

*Prices are still a little higher than just before the attacks, but are within the normal range of short term fluctuation.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Looks like it was a drone/cruise missile combo, originating from Iran.

No surprise there, or conspiracy needed on this one.

[Little John]

Looks like it was a drone/cruise missile combo, originating from Iran.

No surprise there, or conspiracy needed on this one.

Evidence? Links?

[adam2]

Looks like it was a drone/cruise missile combo, originating from Iran.

No surprise there, or conspiracy needed on this one.

Certainly looks like it. The authorities in SA have exhibited the remains of the weapons used in the attack, and have stated that examination of these remains proves Iranian involvement.

Whilst I do not have the knowledge to pronounce on the origins of the wreckage, the fact that that the authorities have exhibited these and allowed the press to photograph them is IMHO, significant.

[Little John]

"Certainly looks like it", does it?

So, we should all take the unsubstantiated word of the sworn enemies of Iran - the head chopping, woman hating, homosexual murdering, journalist butchering, genocidal Wahhabist nutters of Saudi Arabia - who also happen to be best buddies with the Yanks who also just happen to have been pushing for the destruction of Iran for decades ever since their man in Iran, the Sha, was deposed.

In your humble opinion?

Righto....

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Looks like it was a drone/cruise missile combo, originating from Iran.

No surprise there, or conspiracy needed on this one.

Evidence? Links?

I recommend some googling around for the current list of existing evidence and the people it is coming from.

This isn't hard Little John, therefore it will be a bit difficult to assemble a conspiracy out of, but please don't let me stop you.