Brexit process

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

Prorogation already served its purpose - events will come to a head this week

Yesterday’s meeting at Chequers between Boris Johnson and his parliamentary whips may have been the decisive moment in the Brexit saga. They decided to withdraw the party whip from any Tory MP who votes with the opposition on a motion to take control of the House of Common’s order papers. If the vote passes, MPs could bring emergency legislation on no-deal Brexit this week. We expect the order paper vote to take place tomorrow. This is a necessary technical precursor for the emergency legislation to be discussed and voted on. 

The decision at Chequers opens up two basic scenarios. The first - if the motion succeeds despite the threat - is a mid-October general election. The number of Tory Brexit rebels is around 20. We noted a tweet from Alex Wickham of Buzzfeed last night that two Tory MPs he spoke to had already folded. There are a few who definitely won’t - those who will not stand for re-election and those who are ready to sacrifice their political careers. But we are expecting at least some MPs to ask themselves whether it is really worth sacrificing their career for a very uncertain gain: Johnson might still win either way.

Johnson’s confidence that he can win an election is the real game changer - not prorogation. We also note that Tony Blair is advising Jeremy Corbyn not to trigger an election for the same reason. But we don’t expect the Labour Party to refuse a pre-Brexit election if Johnson were to offer it, especially since Corbyn has been asking for one.

It is hard to predict how the vote will go. It is important that Johnson’s threat relates to the first vote - on the order papers. Withdrawing the whip and deselecting a candidate are the prime minister’s ultimate sanctions. Johnson does not need all 20 rebels to fold, but only a majority of them. There are also a few Labour MPs who will not vote for legislation to extend Brexit. The betting among journalists is that the vote to take temporary control of the order papers will succeed narrowly. We keep an open mind. If the vote goes against the government, we would expect Johnson to make an immediate move on elections.

If parliament voted against the motion, the second scenario sets in: the House of Commons will then lack the time to pass legislation before the prorogation of parliament, scheduled to start Sep 9-12 and lasting until mid-October. Johnson would have a clear path towards wither a no-deal Brexit or securing a deal. His argument has been that the permanent efforts by parliament to extend the deadline have hardened the position of the EU. We think this is true. Judging by recent remarks by Angela Merkel, the EU may agree to substantive negotiations but not until the last moment. The EU will, of course, not drop the backstop. It won’t be as crude as that. But EU diplomacy is not as rigid as the rallying calls by various officials suggest.

Both scenarios render the controversial prorogation of parliament somewhat irrelevant. If there are elections, parliament is suspended in any case. If MPs vote against the change in the order papers, there would not be enough time to pass legislation even if parliament continued to sit normally. The main purpose of prorogation was to force the hand of the rebels. If they deliver their coup this week, Johnson has time to call elections. If not, he will have his way. In this sense, it would not matter a lot even if the courts were to stop or restrict prorogation. It will have already served its main purpose.

Also superseded now is the scenario of a no-confidence vote with an election on November 1. That scenario would have required the following sequence: order paper move fails; Corbyn calls, and wins, vote of no-confidence; parliament fails to secure alternative prime minister; Johnson chooses post-Brexit election date, preceded by a no-deal Brexit. That scenario already breaks down at the second step: if there is no majority for a change in the order papers, then surely there is no majority for a vote of no-confidence. 

This leaves us with relatively straight set of scenarios for now: mid-October elections if tomorrow’s order-paper vote succeeds; or Johnson taking charge of the final stretch, unimpeded by parliament. They both might lead to the same result, a no-deal Brexit or a last-minute deal.

[Lord Beria3]

And Greers recent take...

Bridge, I’ve been watching that whole flustered cluck with great amusement. BoJo did the obvious and necessary thing — shut down a Parliament that was completely unable either to get behind giving the people what they voted for, or to come up with an alternative a majority could agree with — using a perfectly legal mechanism that has been used, if I understand correctly, quite a few times previously in Britain’s long history. Now he can give the people what they voted for without having a gaggle of Parliamentary geese nipping at his heels every step of the way. When Brexit goes off smoothly, as I expect it to, and millions of British voters are saying “So what exactly was all that shrieking in aid of?� he can call new elections, with a very high chance of increasing the Tory majority in the House of Commons to the point that the DUP can be told to go smoke its shorts, and an even higher chance of having the Opposition fatally divided between two parties whose leaders can’t stand each other, and whose members all blame the other for the failure of the Remainer cause. Meanwhile the Remainers are playing into his hands by behaving in ways that make him look mature and dignified. It should be entertaining to watch!

[UndercoverElephant]

Johnson’s confidence that he can win an election is the real game changer - not prorogation. We also note that Tony Blair is advising Jeremy Corbyn not to trigger an election for the same reason.

It's Theresa May all over again, Beria. She too was confident she could win an election, and the Blairite Labour people agreed with her. None of them saw that Corbyn surge coming.

I believe this is the end of the road for this tory government. I think they are going to lose badly.

[Lord Beria3]

Not so sure UE.

You seem v confident about a 2nd corbyn surge.

I was wrong in 2017 but this time I think it's too hard to call.

[Lord Beria3]

My own view is that the Tories are finished if we don't leave by the end of the year so tbh boris has nothing much to lose.

Do or die.

This is survival now for the Tory tribe. Strange that Tory Remainers still don't get that.

[UndercoverElephant]

Not so sure UE.

You seem v confident about a 2nd corbyn surge.

I was wrong in 2017 but this time I think it's too hard to call.

I think there will indeed be a Corbyn surge, but not as big as last time and on its own it won't determine the result. There's a whole bunch of other factors all unbalancing each other, which is why it is so hard to call.

I think Labour are going to surprise people with their manifesto again. I think it may be even more ambitious leftwards than the last one, and may be unexpectedly popular. Labour knows that Johnson is going to have to lurch towards making big public spending promises himself, in order to try to buy the votes of Labour leavers. That gives Labour scope to shift the Overton Window even further in their favour.

Then take into account the fact that a lot of the electorate knows how to vote tactically. Remainers in tory-lab marginals will know the potential consequences of voting libdem to protest that Labour isn't remainy enough. I think the polls are misleading in this respect. The libdem and Labour vote is likely to be concentrated in the seats they need it to be in, in a way the tory vote isn't. There are almost no libdem-labour marginals.

[Lord Beria3]

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/w ... -election/

I understand that Labour whips have been inundated with calls from colleagues who do not want an election and either want this message passed back up to the leadership or are threatening to vote against. One senior source tells me that there would easily be a majority against it if the party didn’t whip.

Of course, the party will whip MPs to back its position. This isn’t free vote territory. So then we get into the very interesting territory of whether the current Labour payroll vote would support an election, or whether some frontbenchers might resign from their roles in order to vote against one. ‘Some’ could mean a handful, or it could be a more serious insurrection against Corbyn, which would increase the instability felt by the Labour leader. This is something the plotters against Corbyn want. Not only do they not want an election now, they also don’t want to fight an election with Corbyn as the leader, as they feel all the Tories’ theories about a majority are predicated on having a weak opposition.

That’s all for the future. But for now, it’s worth taking a closer look before assuming that the Labour Party will, as a whole, back an election.

Interesting.

I suppose a key demographic to watch is the Little Johns of this world - Labour Leavers.

LJ - are you going to vote Tory if there is an election in October?

My Tory (2017) Remainer demographic is also wobbly. My Dad is a Tory Remainer who claimed to be Lib Dem after Boris got elected - however, after a Gestapo style political interrogation he admitted to me that if there was a realistic chance Labour would get in his local constituency he would reluctantly vote Tory.

The sense among my colleagues (both Tory Remainers) is similar - they dislike Boris intensely but a radical Labour government scares the hell out of them as well.

My Tory Brexit (but anti-Boris) colleague also thinks Corbyn is the greater threat.

My Tory/Brexit Party one person focus poll is also looking good for the Tories - my Mum. She is also leaned back to Boris assuming he is serious about no-deal.

Interestingly, my metropolitan liberal uber-Remainer friend in London, who voted Labour in 2017, is now a Lib Dem voter.

So, among my random circle of friends and family there has been a shift away from Corbyn.

[UndercoverElephant]

Interesting.

You didn't quote this bit:

But that doesn’t necessarily mean that Labour will provide the numbers to approve an election motion in the Commons. I have been speaking to MPs in the upper echelons of the party and on the backbenches and many of them privately say they would vote against the motion, even if whipped to do so. They see it as a trap which Johnson could then use to force through a no-deal Brexit by using prerogative proclamation power to move polling day to after 31 October.

Forget the rubbish about Blairite Labour MPs refusing to vote for an election because they thin Corbyn will lose it. That's Spectator fantasy. They've been moaning about Corbyn for years, and they know they have lost that battle. They know they can't get rid of him before an election unless he chooses to go.

If, however, significant numbers of Labour MPs genuinely believe that Johnson might try to reschedule the election date beyond October 31st after the commons has agreed to hold it before, then it might not pass. Then we're back to VonC territory instead.

I suppose a key demographic to watch is the Little Johns of this world - Labour Leavers.

He's not a typical Labour leaver. I am. He's more your brexit party supporter. Old anti-tory UKIP.

[Little John]

So, the authorities are allowing a deafening protest near enough to downing street so as to more or less drown out Johnson's speech. That could have been stopped. Instead, it has been encouraged and, I dare say, choreographed. The globalist flank of the establishment, which still holds most of the levers of power, is engaging in outright sabotage of the politics of this country. It's that serious.

This will not be without consequences

I am not one for making predictions other than the very broadest. But, I am going to make one now.

If Brexit does not happen on the 31st of October, people are gong to start to get hurt.

[UndercoverElephant]

So, the authorities are allowing a deafening protest near enough to downing street so as to more or less drown out Johnson's speech. That could have been stopped. Instead, it has been encouraged and, I dare say, choreographed. The globalist flank of the establishment, which still holds most of the levers of power, is engaging in outright sabotage of the politics of this country. It's that serious.

This will not be without consequences

I am not one for making predictions other than the very broadest. But, I am going to make one now.

If Brexit does not happen on the 31st of October, people are gong to start to get hurt.

You have been saying that for the last two years.

[Little John]

I've said for two years if they cancel Brexit violence would happen and I stand by that. I am now also saying that if the 31st of October comes and goes, many ordinary people are going to take that, finally, as meaning it is cancelled in all but name.

[UndercoverElephant]

OK, having watched Newsnight, things look different. Craig Oliver pointed out that it might be in Labour's best strategic interest to refuse the election. Let's assume the rebel legislation passes tomorrow, making no deal illegal. Johnson then tries to call an election, but needs two thirds of the commons to get it.

Is it actually in Labour's tactical interest to agree to that election, before the brexit end date?

If they go for the election, Johnson gets to fight it on his own chosen terms. This is what he's been planning for.

But what does Johnson do if Labour rejects the election? He's promised to leave the EU on October 31st, "do or die", but he'd then be in a position where he cannot legally take the UK out the EU, cannot get May's deal through, has no hope whatsoever of getting concessions out of the EU (because the threat of no deal has gone), and can't get a pre-Halloween election either.

Johnson would be up shit creek without a paddle. He'd have to ask for an article 50 extension, and then Labour would VonC him, after he'd failed to leave on October 31st.

[fuzzy]

It would be nice if these guys fielded a candidate in every constituency:

https://sdp.org.uk/

[Lord Beria3]

LJ - will you be voting conservative?

[clv101]

So, the authorities are allowing a deafening protest near enough to downing street so as to more or less drown out Johnson's speech. That could have been stopped.

Absolutely, that was striking.

I don't think Johnson's going to get the election he clearly wants this week.