Brexit process

[stumuz1]

You should be happy that decisions are being taken by our elected Parliament, and not Brussels ?
Or only when YOU agree with the outcome ?

What decisions? They haven't taken any!
The only decision they've taken is they don't want to put down their EU comfort blanket but are not brave enough to say so.

So they kick the can. Again and again and again and again and again and again.

[Mark]

You should be happy that decisions are being taken by our elected Parliament, and not Brussels ?
Or only when YOU agree with the outcome ?

What decisions? They haven't taken any!
The only decision they've taken is they don't want to put down their EU comfort blanket but are not brave enough to say so.

So they kick the can. Again and again and again and again and again and again.

I'm sure you didn't miss MPs voting to reject no-deal Brexit:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47562995

The numbers in Parliament have moved slightly further away from no-deal Brexit since.
This is why Parliament has been prorogued - no other
We'll have to see what the consequences are for BoJo, but I see this as the move of a politically weak man, not a strong one.

One consequence already - Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Conservative leader:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-49509275
Brings Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK a little step closer ?

[Snail]

I can understand that people are seriously annoyed by this. It's obviously because of brexit; even though the direct consequences are only 3 or 4 days of less parliament time.

What I dont get. And this applies to trump et al. Is that this tactic is only a continuation of similar tactics.

It's like a game of chess where only one person feels he/she has the right to cheat.

Come on! Express annoyance if you must. But, at least, have the decency to admit to yourself this.

[Snail]

Ruth Davidson was always going to resign today. The room was booked last week before this happened. She was surprisingly positive about Johnson too I thought.

I supported Scottish independence before. But every argument used against brexit applies to sc. Independence. Times 10

[fuzzy]

I want Scottish independence, as long as they draw the 'Scotland' line from about Monmouth across to ~Skegness.

They can keep the Cotswolds, Cambridge and Oxford if they like.

Apologies to the South West, as lovely as it is.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

Clever - or too clever by half?

Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings have a strategy - and nobody else does. The prorogation plan is devious - or clever depending on your views. It tells us that this government will stop at nothing to frustrate the Remainers in the parliament, so long as it is legal. 

The decision to prorogue parliament in the way they did dramatically reduces the options for the Remain supporters. There is now no time for legislation to force the government to extend Brexit. There is a little more than a week after the parliament convenes next week, and there will be a couple of weeks after the Queen’s Speech October 14. 

Readers may recall that we gamed a similar scenario in March and April, but Theresa May did not pursue it. Johnson is doing it now. The news site Buzzfeed reported that Number 10 was even considering declaring a series of new bank holidays in October with the sole purpose of preventing the Commons from sitting. And a House of Lords filibuster is also definitely a possibility if the Commons manages to pass emergency legislation. They are even considering filling the Lords with pro-Brexit peers to shift the numbers there. They will do whatever it takes.

Can this be stopped legally? Not really. It is not the prime minister who has prorogued the parliament. It was the Queen, who has her own legal counsel. We have no doubt that there will be legal challenges. The problem is that this is a normal parliamentary procedure. Parliament always gets prorogued before a Queen's speech. And it gets suspended for the party conference season, which starts at the end of September. Johnson has folded the two together. And, nominally, there is still time to discuss Brexit. The whole "taking Brexit off the table" nonsense is a political mirage. It has no legal or constitutional meaning. The no-deal Brexit is already enshrined in law.

Perhaps the most interesting news story yesterday - amid a torrent of noisy outrage - was a story in Die Welt according to which Germany and the EU - for the first time - now actually believe that a no-deal Brexit is possible. We have been pointing out for the last three years that Germans in particular did not believe that Brexit would happen. The German media have been obsessed with the second referendum campaign and reported on little else. It also has been the overwhelming experience of the EU that the other side always blinks first. What yesterday’s decision did was to make it absolutely clear to the EU that the UK parliament won’t stop a no-deal Brexit. 

Nick Gutteridge, the Brussels correspondent of the Sun, corroborates this story by pointing out that the EU may for the first time be seriously considering entering in a dialogue with Johnson. Previously the strategy had been to wait for the parliament to act first. The window for serious negotiations will be the second half of October. The hope is to wrap up a new set of negotiations in a week. Don’t believe anyone who tells you that it is late to renegotiate. It will take more than a day, for sure, but with a looming deadline it can be done.

But, for that to be possible, Johnson needed to take “off-the-table� off the table. Now they can talk. We would not go as far as to treat a deal as the most probable outcome, but at least it is possible. It was not possible for so long as the EU was hiding under a comfort blanket.

The Remainers are now faced with a difficult choice. The previous day Jeremy Corbyn and other opposition leaders decided against a no-confidence vote, and to pursue anti-Brexit legislation instead. This strategy is now hard to pull off. Prorogation ends all legislative processes. Unfinished legislation expires. There is no way the House of Commons and the Lords will finalise an anti-Brexit law before parliament breaks up. They would have to re-table the legislation in mid-October. But at that time Johnson and EU leaders would be in last-minute negotiations. If the talks succeed, parliament will get a last-minute take-it-or-leave-it vote. There may be a small technical extension to make time for ratification by the European Parliament - maybe two weeks or so. If the talks break down, it will be too late for the Commons to pass legislation to force Johnson to ask for another extension. 

There is still one option left for Remainers to pursue, but it is very risky. They could hold a vote of no confidence when they come back next week. If they win, the fixed-term parliaments act sets out a definitive procedure. The House of Commons has two weeks to secure a majority in support of another prime minister - a technical government as the Italians would call it. But this is unlikely as the opposition is hopelessly divided on this point. If that effort fails, the Commons would be suspended for new elections. But, crucially, it is the government that sets the date for them. Number Ten said yesterday that the date for elections would be November 1-5, that is after a no-deal Brexit. In other words, a no-confidence motion could actually trigger a no-deal Brexit, as the Commons would have deprived themselves of the opportunity to ratify a withdrawal agreement. 

This is why the timing of the prorogation is so clever - no doubt the work of Cummings. 

What could still swing the pendulum in favour of the Remainers is a swing of public opinion against Johnson. The media are making a lot of the apparently-unrelated resignation of Ruth Davidson as Tory leader in Scotland. The Guardian is talking about a petition against prorogation. As of yesterday, however, we saw no evidence of Tory MPs deserting Johnson. 

Our own view on this matter are more nuanced. Prorogation should not be used for political purposes. But it is hard to argue that a five-week suspension of parliament is anti-democratic, at least not more anti-democratic than parliament trying to overturn a referendum result.  

The political reality is that the anti-Brexit campaign has committed one strategic blunder after another, and failed to attract enough support. They lost two general elections, one European election and one referendum. The ferocity of their reaction is best explained as a sudden realisation that they lost. They did not see this coming.

[stumuz1]

One consequence already - Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Conservative leader:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-49509275
Brings Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK a little step closer ?

You say you are not a rabid remainer Mark, but that link shows how thin your arguments are.

Ruth Davidson is standing down for many reason NOT connected to Brexit.

They are all in the public domain, most are personal, and Nothing to do with Brexit.

[UndercoverElephant]

Beria:

Re: latest eurointelligence.

Yes, it is still possible the EU/Ireland are going to cave on the backstop. Nothing less will do. There has to be a time limit or a unilateral UK exit mechanism. If that is delivered, then I believe the WA would get through parliament on Labour votes, even if half the ERG continued to reject it.

I also still think it is possible that there will be a succesfull VonC followed by a Corbyn-led temporary government, and an extension to hold a GE.

The genuine threat of no-deal is likely to grease some wheels somewhere. The question is which wheels and where. But I honestly believe the Irish are now absolutely crapping themselves, having realised that Varadkar, no doubt egged on by Barnier, has overplayed his hand quite badly. No deal will well and truly F--k Ireland up.

[Little John]

I think if Johnson tries to get the May's WA minus only the Irish backstop, it may get through Parliament. But, will lead to a GE where the Brexit party will gain MP's How many is hard to tell. But, it will not be "all over" and merely stores more shit up down the years to come. Or, possibly a lot sooner if the EU suffers another major economic crisis in the near future. Which is likely.

[Mark]

One consequence already - Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Conservative leader:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-49509275
Brings Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK a little step closer ?

You say you are not a rabid remainer Mark, but that link shows how thin your arguments are.

Ruth Davidson is standing down for many reason NOT connected to Brexit.

They are all in the public domain, most are personal, and Nothing to do with Brexit.

There you go again, insulting those you don't agree with and attributing opinions to them. I can see why you and LJ are kindred spirits...
I am neither 'rabid', nor did I vote remain.
Another unpleasant post, but I understand that you can't help yourself.

Anyway, moving on to Ruth Davidson.
Yes, she quoted her family life, but all politicians say that, so you think it's just a coincidence that she's resigned 1 day after BoJo prorogues Parliament ?
If you listen to what she actually said, her main concern was the impact the a hard-Brexit would have on the business community.
I share that concern.

Most posters on here seem relaxed about losing Scotland from the UK.
If nothing else, we would lose the oil revenue, whiskey revenue, off-shore wind resources, a good chunk of the fishing grounds, etc. etc. etc.

A 'scorched 'earth' hard-Brexit forced through by English Nationalists is not the way forward....

[Little John]

One consequence already - Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Conservative leader:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-49509275
Brings Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK a little step closer ?

You say you are not a rabid remainer Mark, but that link shows how thin your arguments are.

Ruth Davidson is standing down for many reason NOT connected to Brexit.

They are all in the public domain, most are personal, and Nothing to do with Brexit.

There you go again, insulting those you don't agree with and attributing opinions to them. I can see why you and LJ are kindred spirits...
I am neither 'rabid', nor did I vote remain.
Another unpleasant post, but I understand that you can't help yourself.

Anyway, moving on to Ruth Davidson.
Yes, she quoted her family life, but all politicians say that, so you think it's just a coincidence that she's resigned 1 day after BoJo prorogues Parliament ?
If you listen to what she actually said, her main concern was the impact the a hard-Brexit would have on the business community.
I share that concern.

Most posters on here seem relaxed about losing Scotland from the UK.
If nothing else, we would lose the oil revenue, whiskey revenue, off-shore wind resources, a good chunk of the fishing grounds, etc. etc. etc.

A 'scorched 'earth' hard-Brexit forced through by English Nationalists is not the way forward....

The only people I see endlessly talking up potential problems via a vis Ireland and Scotland are EU-ideologically possessed Remainers dangerously and disgracefully prepared to dig up and reheat dark echoes of the past as part of their attempt to achieve their antidemocratic ends in a deeply cynical alliance with separatist elements in Ireland and Scotland.

These also tend to be the same people, I note, who are content to support the secret briefing of a foreign power, during negotiations against their own government as well as turn a blind eye to secretive (or, rather, not so secretive) conclaves in the political and media class plotting ways of overthrowing a legitimately elected government and a legitimate referendum result. Such people are the enemy within. Such people are traitors to this nation.

As I have already said, the damage wrought on the demos over the last three years by these people has poisoned politics in this country for a generation.

It will not be forgotten or forgiven.

[UndercoverElephant]

Spiked thinks parliament is going to hold its nose and put Corbyn in Downing Street:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/2 ... my-corbyn/

[Little John]

F*ck me, they are desperate to stop Brexit. Which only serves to further indicate to me why it was right to vote for it. Corbyn has become a fully willing accomplice to the ruling class and it is now irrelevant whether that is because he is spineless or duplicitous. The outcome is the same. Indeed, the Spiked article acknowledges this.

What an ignominious end for lifelong Eurosceptic Jeremy Corbyn and his tenure as Labour leader. He now leads a movement for the few, not the many; a movement for the EU, not against it; and a movement opposed to the working classes, not in favour of them. He came to shake the status quo, but he ended up preserving the status quo against the masses who so badly want it, and need it, to change.

Consequently, I and many, many other working class Leavers have nothing but contempt for Corbyn now

[UndercoverElephant]

F*ck me, they are desperate to stop Brexit. Which only serves to further indicate to me why it was right to vote for it.

From Twitter tonight:

Tory MP Ken Clarke tells Sky he "probably would" support @jeremycorbyn
as a caretaker PM to stop no deal. But only if he could be kept "under control" and "wouldn't have the slightest chance of implementing any bits of his Labour manifesto"

This puts Jo Swinson in a position where it will be very difficult for her not to support a temporary Corbyn government.

I think we're heading towards another extension and an election in November. And I still think it is impossible to predict who will come out of that election on top.

As for Corbyn becoming "one of them"...he's never cared that much about brexit. He wants to destroy the tories and engineer a labour government, and everything else comes second.

[Little John]

If a VoNC is passed and, following that over the next 14 days, a caretaker prime minister looks likely to be proposed or, even if one is not looking likely to be proposed, Johnson will immediately call a snap election to be held on 1st November and there is absolutely nothing in constitutional terms, so far as I can see, that can be done to stop him doing that.