Firstly, they'd have to make it through continental Europe
Secondly, continental European countries, by that point, would have done away with all delusions of niceties and the Mediterranean would be red with Arab and African blood. This would likely take the form of allied military engagement of several European countries acting in concert.
In other words, the Northern European countries, including the UK, would take part in such allied engagements because they would know that if they did not the Southern European countries would just wave the migrants through. And who could blame them under such circumstances.
Thus, the numbers reaching the UK, by that point, would be far fewer than tens of millions
Update from the Archdruid Greer
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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Lord Beria3
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Lord Beria3
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ReserveGrowthRulz
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Stunning indeed! Like a mullet!
Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on 17 Jun 2020, 20:43, edited 1 time in total.
Yes certainly better than his average over the last couple of years!
I don't think he's right the draw a comparison between the post 2010 collapse of the peak oil movement and that climate change activism and environmentalism generally will similarly stop being fashionable.
The overwhelming reason for peak oil's collapse was on the ground reality of unconventional oil and <<$100 oil prices. Climate change faces an opposite future, there's every expectation for temperatures to rise further, extremes of drought and flood to increase in impact etc. We'll have another big El Nino event one day (like 1997-1998) that will further underline the predicament.
Climate change is not facing a $35 oil event like peak oil did.
It is a good observation that the peak oil concerned folk have tended to be more likely to make significant lifestyle changes than the solely climate change concerned people.
I don't think he's right the draw a comparison between the post 2010 collapse of the peak oil movement and that climate change activism and environmentalism generally will similarly stop being fashionable.
The overwhelming reason for peak oil's collapse was on the ground reality of unconventional oil and <<$100 oil prices. Climate change faces an opposite future, there's every expectation for temperatures to rise further, extremes of drought and flood to increase in impact etc. We'll have another big El Nino event one day (like 1997-1998) that will further underline the predicament.
Climate change is not facing a $35 oil event like peak oil did.
It is a good observation that the peak oil concerned folk have tended to be more likely to make significant lifestyle changes than the solely climate change concerned people.
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Lord Beria3
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When your at it you can read my latest post as well!
https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... dark-ages/
https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... dark-ages/
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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Lord Beria3
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ReserveGrowthRulz
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Sounds to me like he is jealous of all the attention Greta is getting.Lord Beria3 wrote:https://www.ecosophia.net/the-dream-of- ... d-society/
Greer's latest. Incredible read.
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Little John
The so-called "extinction rebellion" and their poster child in the form of Greta Thunberg popping up out of literally thin air has got to be the most rapidly embraced "movement" by the ruling class, that has ever been seen. So, immediately, my bullshitometer starts pinging furiously.
What this is really about is the inevitable decline of all industrial civilizations across the world over the course of this century. The only variable being that some declines will occur sooner and proceed faster than others.
The reasons, depending on where you wish to focus your lens, are various, but can be boiled down to:
a) Climate change. Some of it is man made. Some of it is part of natural cycles. The earth will no doubt recover from it, whatever the cause. But, "recover", might not be particularly relevant in human timescales or even human civlisational timescales.
b) The biggest mass extinction event since the end of the Permian. Indeed, the speed of the current mass extinction is happening faster than any of the previous five major extinctions that have occurred in the history of life on Earth. It is absolutely 100% down to humans. And it will bite us in the ass at some point because we are a part of the same web of life as everything else. When that web collapses, as it already is in certain part of the world, it will take us down with it.
c) The limits to human economic growth on a finite planet due to the one time draw down of the stored solar energy of eons in the form of hydrocarbons and there is literally nothing to replace them other than, in the short term, methane clathrates which, in the medium to longer term, only serve to exacerbate (a) and (b).
d) Underneath all of the above - because it is the driver of all of it - a massive global overshoot of the human population. A die-off is coming and there is absolutely nothing that can now be done to avert it.
e) Everything outlined above leading to ever more conflicts in the world as humans scrabble and squabble over diminishing resources in a desperate bid to keep their respective industrial civilizations afloat.
There will be winners and losers along the way. But, all will fail eventually.
Having said all of that;
Those at the very top of our industrial civilization here in the West know that a storm is coming. They know our people are going to start getting rebellious as hard times begin to really, properly bite. Indeed, that rebellion is already gathering a head of steam on both sides of the Atlantic in a variety of forms. And they know there is little that can be done other than manage the decline. Part of that management is to begin to foster a growing panic in the population about things like climate change. Hence, the sudden rise, as I said, as if out of nowhere, of "movements" like "Extinction Rebellion" and totemic figures like Thunberg.
Not as part of fixing anything, I hasten to add. It's way too late for that. But, as a political and cultural mechanism by which the people can be herded into accepting ever more draconian limits on their freedoms and ever more privations in life as we accelerate down the slope towards de-industrialization. Meanwhile, those at the top intend, so far as they are concerned, to continue living their 20th century industrial lifestyle in the background. Or, at least, until the pitchforks come out.
All of it is bullshit and all of it ends badly, one way or another.
For everyone.
But, I reckon America will be one of the early causalities and is at risk of descending into fascism a decade or two down the line. And I don't mean as a consequence of Trump in the way that infantile liberals would have it. I mean the real deal. And it will probably be driven, irony of ironies, by what the liberals will have become by then.
What this is really about is the inevitable decline of all industrial civilizations across the world over the course of this century. The only variable being that some declines will occur sooner and proceed faster than others.
The reasons, depending on where you wish to focus your lens, are various, but can be boiled down to:
a) Climate change. Some of it is man made. Some of it is part of natural cycles. The earth will no doubt recover from it, whatever the cause. But, "recover", might not be particularly relevant in human timescales or even human civlisational timescales.
b) The biggest mass extinction event since the end of the Permian. Indeed, the speed of the current mass extinction is happening faster than any of the previous five major extinctions that have occurred in the history of life on Earth. It is absolutely 100% down to humans. And it will bite us in the ass at some point because we are a part of the same web of life as everything else. When that web collapses, as it already is in certain part of the world, it will take us down with it.
c) The limits to human economic growth on a finite planet due to the one time draw down of the stored solar energy of eons in the form of hydrocarbons and there is literally nothing to replace them other than, in the short term, methane clathrates which, in the medium to longer term, only serve to exacerbate (a) and (b).
d) Underneath all of the above - because it is the driver of all of it - a massive global overshoot of the human population. A die-off is coming and there is absolutely nothing that can now be done to avert it.
e) Everything outlined above leading to ever more conflicts in the world as humans scrabble and squabble over diminishing resources in a desperate bid to keep their respective industrial civilizations afloat.
There will be winners and losers along the way. But, all will fail eventually.
Having said all of that;
Those at the very top of our industrial civilization here in the West know that a storm is coming. They know our people are going to start getting rebellious as hard times begin to really, properly bite. Indeed, that rebellion is already gathering a head of steam on both sides of the Atlantic in a variety of forms. And they know there is little that can be done other than manage the decline. Part of that management is to begin to foster a growing panic in the population about things like climate change. Hence, the sudden rise, as I said, as if out of nowhere, of "movements" like "Extinction Rebellion" and totemic figures like Thunberg.
Not as part of fixing anything, I hasten to add. It's way too late for that. But, as a political and cultural mechanism by which the people can be herded into accepting ever more draconian limits on their freedoms and ever more privations in life as we accelerate down the slope towards de-industrialization. Meanwhile, those at the top intend, so far as they are concerned, to continue living their 20th century industrial lifestyle in the background. Or, at least, until the pitchforks come out.
All of it is bullshit and all of it ends badly, one way or another.
For everyone.
But, I reckon America will be one of the early causalities and is at risk of descending into fascism a decade or two down the line. And I don't mean as a consequence of Trump in the way that infantile liberals would have it. I mean the real deal. And it will probably be driven, irony of ironies, by what the liberals will have become by then.
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ReserveGrowthRulz
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Little John wrote:The so-called "extinction rebellion" and their poster child in the form of Greta Thunberg popping up out of literally thin air has got to be the most rapidly embraced "movement" by the ruling class, that has ever been seen. So, immediately, my bullshitometer starts pinging furiously.
We know. It is how conspiracy nutters react naturally. Don't worry, this type of psychosis can be cured.
Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on 17 Jun 2020, 20:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Lord Beria3
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Little John is spot-in RGR.
https://standpointmag.co.uk/issues/june ... s-crusade/
Have a read of this...
https://standpointmag.co.uk/issues/june ... s-crusade/
Have a read of this...
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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Lord Beria3
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Greer on Brexit.
Forecasting, one of my newsfeeds mentions that the UK has just signed a post-Brexit trade arrangement with South Korea, which is a good sign. More generally, BoJo seems to have hit the ground running, and he’s clearly not afraid to fight hard, and dirty. I plan on having some good English pub ale handy come October 30 to celebrate Britain’s newly won independence.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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ReserveGrowthRulz
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Interesting read. But it doesn't read as the kind of conspiracy people want it t be.Lord Beria3 wrote:Little John is spot-in RGR.
https://standpointmag.co.uk/issues/june ... s-crusade/
Have a read of this...
Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on 17 Jun 2020, 20:44, edited 1 time in total.