Brexit process

[stumuz1]

I've explained many times, you don't get it.

Off you pop to your chemical lobbyists website and cut and paste your favourite bits.

Legal requirement for safety data sheets= Global
Legal standard for nastiness/toxicity= Global

It's like brushing water uphill.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

A poll on October 31?

We noted a comment from Sebastian Payne in the FT, according to which the strategists inside Number 10 are mulling the possibility of an election on October 31, which is a Thursday, or November 1. We were amused to read a tweet claiming this date would be the sweet spot: Boris Johnson would have pushed us over the cliff but we would not have landed yet.

The trouble with elections a week or two weeks later is the uncertainty caused by severe disruptions from a no-deal Brexit. We have no idea how disruptive it will be. The government’s own intelligence seems to be that the process is manageable, but still disruptive. So it would make sense to pick an election day after Brexit has happened, but before the disruption sets in. If elections were held on October 31, the winner would not be installed until November 1 at the earliest. So, even if the Tories were to lose the election, the new prime minister would not be able to reverse Brexit. We think that this might even suit Jeremy Corbyn, who does not want to fight a Brexit election either.

The main news development yesterday was Labour's insistence that they would only countenance a government of national unity if led by Corbyn. To that end, shadow chancellor John McDonnell is enlisting the help of the SNP. In turn, he promised to support what the SNP wants the most - a second Scottish referendum. The LibDems categorically ruled out supporting a Corbyn-led minority government. So unless something shifts, the idea is dead in the water. 

The increasingly desperate MPs who spend their whole lives plotting how to stop a no-deal Brexit are now considering other parliamentary strategies - to force a delay in the parliamentary schedule of the early autumn break. The idea is to give time for legislation to draw up a new request for an extension. We have argued before that such legislation is futile for a number of reasons, if only because it does not bind the European Council. That process would meet serious practical, legal and political obstacles. 

And finally, as an aside, we see the old revolutionary Marxist coming out in McDonnell. He said yesterday: if Boris Johnson were to lose a vote of no-confidence, he would personally send Jeremy Corbyn to Buckingham Palace "in a taxi". Upon which Corbyn would demand that the Queen appoint him prime minister. The Tories are screaming coup d’etat. Will they send tanks to protect the Queen from Corbyn?

This story is telling us two things: the British have not entirely lost their sense of humour; and they are confused about their constitution. For us the situation is clear because we have read the Fixed Terms Parliaments Act. It overrides all the previous constitutional gunk, by setting out a clear procedure of what happens when a prime minister loses a vote of no-confidence. The FTPA is as clear as Article 50, and yet not much read and not much understood. Our advice is to trust the lawyers on this: under the UK’s constitutional law, as it is today, it is not possible to stop a no-deal Brexit through procedures outlined in the FTPA, except in case an alternative prime minister commands a parliamentary majority. It is as simple as that

[UndercoverElephant]

The LibDems categorically ruled out supporting a Corbyn-led minority government. So unless something shifts, the idea is dead in the water.

Yeah, right. What they are ruling out is a longer-term entity which actually tries to govern the country. If Labour offers an a50 extension and an election, when the alternative is an election immediately after a no deal, the libdems will bite their hand off.

[Little John]

Labour wont offer an a50 extension unless they really do want to commit political suicide in any immediately following GE.

[Mark]

I've explained many times, you don't get it.

Off you pop to your chemical lobbyists website and cut and paste your favourite bits.

Legal requirement for safety data sheets= Global
Legal standard for nastiness/toxicity= Global

It's like brushing water uphill.

Assume you can't explain any benefit to establishing UK REACH, so you revert to type by slinging personal insults and (deliberately ?) misinterpreting what was has been said.

Profiles available for all the Chemical Watch Team:
https://chemicalwatch.com/11162/

[stumuz1]

I've explained many times, you don't get it.

Off you pop to your chemical lobbyists website and cut and paste your favourite bits.

Legal requirement for safety data sheets= Global
Legal standard for nastiness/toxicity= Global

It's like brushing water uphill.

Assume you can't explain any benefit to establishing UK REACH, so you revert to type by slinging personal insults and (deliberately ?) misinterpreting what was has been said.

Profiles available for all the Chemical Watch Team:
https://chemicalwatch.com/11162/

Mark, there is no personal insults. You keep cutting and pasting whole texts from lobbyists.

Carry on, fill your boots!

Just revert back a hundred pages or so and you will find you have posted and I have answered this propaganda before.

Nos da

[Little John]

Latest Yougov poll:

Tories: 31%
Labour 22%
Lib Dems 21%
Brexit 14%
Green 7%
Other 5%

If these parties are totted up according to Remsain and Leave:

Leave:

Tories 31%
Brexit 14%
50% of Labour vote 11%
50% of other vote 2.5%
total = 58.5%

Remain:

Lib Dems 21%
Green 7%
50% of Labour vote 11%
50% of other vote 2.5%

Total = 41.5%

The only way that Remain could be assumed to be winning would be if an assumption was made that 100% of Labour voters were Remainers. Given that 70% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave, the chances of that being true are precisely zero.

If the Tories get Brexit over the line on October 31st and then call an immediate election, they will win.

If the traitors in parliament stop the Tories getting Brexit over the line on October 31st and force and election, the Tories, possibly in a pact with the Brexit party, will win.

Labour have destroyed any chance they had of government.

[UndercoverElephant]

Yougov have consistently under-estimated the labour vote compared to all the other polling companies, and got the election result badly wrong (with their standard method - they also tried a new method, and that was right).

The moving average tells a different story. Latest Comres poll has Labour one point in the lead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

If the traitors in parliament stop the Tories getting Brexit over the line on October 31st and force and election, the Tories, possibly in a pact with the Brexit party, will win.

We've been through this already. How can this pact actually work? It's a mirage. It seems like a good idea, until you try to flesh out the details, at which point it collapses.

If the no deal vote could be united, it could win a general election. If the tories stood down all their candidates and allowed the brexit party to run candidates in all constituencies on a "pure no deal" ticket, it could win. But the tories can't be anything other than tories, and millions of people simply will not vote for them, under any circumstances.

I'm bored of this now. I just want parliament to return, and get the VonC done. I'd say it is now a dead certainty that Labour will call that VonC on September 4th, and it will succeed. I also believe Johnson will resign and that we will have a general election at the end of October, before Brexit. And anyone who thinks they can predict the result is a fool. It will be both the most important election of our lifetimes, with the least predictable result.

[Little John]

Rightho

Meanwhile, you have been confidently predicting the death of Brexit for months and, alongside that, have been predicting with equal confidence the myriad of ways in which that death will be achieved. But, like a typical weather reporter, your "predictions" have morphed and shifted as much as the weather.

Yeah.... right...

[UndercoverElephant]

Rightho

Meanwhile, you have been confidently predicting the death of Brexit for months and, alongside that, have been predicting with equal confidence the myriad of ways in which that death will be achieved. But, like a typical weather reporter, your "predictions" have morphed and shifted as much as the weather.

Yeah.... right...

Actually my position has been quite consistent. Until the end of March, I was predicting the situation would end with either no deal or a general election. Since the end of March, I've been saying no deal will be stopped and that the only way it can end is a general election.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... n-election

The Liberal Democrats are drawing up an aggressive new election strategy targeting more Conservative seats, including that of foreign secretary Dominic Raab amid alarm among senior Tories about the threat posed by Jo Swinson’s party.

Research by the Lib Dems conducted over the summer has convinced officials to rip up the party’s existing plans and adopt a more ambitious targeting strategy after concluding that it was on course to win more than 70 seats – a result that would represent its best ever return.

Tory former cabinet ministers are among those now warning that the arrival of Boris Johnson and his acceptance of a possible no-deal Brexit has opened up a huge opportunity. “The route the PM and [his senior adviser] Dominic Cummings have taken is really blind to the fact that you’ve opened up this yawning chasm in the centre of politics,� said one. “The Lib Dems have always been at their best in a crisis.�

There are almost no libdem-labour marginals any more, because Labour mopped all those up when tactical anti-tories deserted the libdems in 2015. So Swinson might as well just target all the libdem-tory marginals where there was a decent remain vote. And if the libdems take 60 seats off the tories, that means the tories have to win 60 off Labour just to stand still. Possibly more if the tories lose some Scottish seats back to the SNP.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... ories.html

Hodges latest. Concurs with eurointeligence analysis.

[Little John]

So, Caroline Lucas has said the UK needs an ".....emergency cabinet...." and, furthermore, she believes this "....should be a cabinet of women..."

This really is moronic peak neo-liberal identity politics.

And, of course, it barely needs mentioning it is about as antidemocratic is it gets.

[UndercoverElephant]

So, Caroline Lucas has said the UK needs an ".....emergency cabinet...." and, furthermore, she believes this "....should be a cabinet of women..."

This really is moronic peak neo-liberal identity politics.

And, of course, it barely needs mentioning it is about as antidemocratic is it gets.

She appears to have alienated almost everybody with this comment. Even people who normally stick up for idiotic identity politics think it was misjudged and counterproductive. Labour will be eyeing up her seat.

The condemnation is universal. Not one voice defending her: https://new.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/com ... come_over/

[Little John]

It would appear a majority of British citizens support Brexit by any means including proroguing parliament if necessary.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... YG?rpc=401