Boris poll surge: Tories gain ten points after new PM vows to deliver Brexit on October 31
MR JOHNSON becoming Prime Minister has boosted Conservative Party popularity by ten points according to a shock new opinion poll, which shows he could defeat the Labour opposition in a General Election....
Polls are still all over the place. Another one from yesterday had the tories on 24 and Labour on 23. The models are broken.
However, a bounce was expected. Always happens when a new leader takes over, and doesn't usually last very long, although there is bound to be a considerable number of ex-tories returning to the fold from BXP. This is likely to be the high water line for Johnson.
Make no mistake, the last thing I wanted was for a Tory recovery or, even worse, a GE victory on the back of Brexit. But, we have been led to this by a Labour party that has abandoned its heartlands due to a Labour leader who lacked both the brains and the balls, for all of his good intentions.
Little John wrote:Make no mistake, the last thing I wanted was for a Tory recovery or, even worse, a GE victory on the back of Brexit. But, we have been led to this by a Labour party that has abandoned its heartlands due to a Labour leader who lacked both the brains and the balls, for all of his good intentions.
One way or another, Brexit must happen.
Labour has not abandoned its heartlands. A hell of a lot of people are claiming, wrongly, the opposite - that it has betrayed remainers in London. The truth is that Labour is still resisting the pressure to go full remain.
We would be deep into the European summer lull were it not for Brexit. The big issue in the UK media is the Johnson administration’s full-throttle preparations for a no-deal Brexit. We never tire of writing that no-deal cannot be stopped on its own. It is the legal default. The Johnson administration has now made it the political default as well.Â
The other big news development over the weekend was a Times story on the government’s legal advice, according to which elections won’t stop a no-deal Brexit. We are not surprised by this, as the contrary argument rested on the false assumption that a no-deal Brexit constitutes a decision when it is an already legislated default. The attorney general has thus neutered the one trump card MPs thought they had in stopping a no-deal Brexit. They assumed, wrongly, that the government would have to request a Brexit extension in case of an election. The EU would, of course, grant an extension if a request were made. But there is nothing in UK or EU law that would force Boris Johnson to make such a request. We should always remember that it was Theresa May who sought the Brexit extensions in March and April. She could have frustrated parliament if she had wanted to.
In the meantime, the UK treasury will spend an extra £1bn on no-deal preparations. As we hear this morning, the government is also planning a big no-deal advertising campaign - all this while parliament is in recess. The government has some five weeks of uninterrupted propaganda from the bully pulpit with no parliament in attendance.Â
Johnson will set up three government committees. A war committee, as the media calls it, to prepare the exit strategy. It will include Johnson, Michael Gove, and Sajid Javid, the new chancellor. It meets twice a week. Then there will be a daily operations committee under Gove, and an economy and trade committee.
What should the EU make of this? Is this an empty scare tactic, bound to collapse when the reality of a no-deal Brexit approaches? There is a lot of commentary out there that misread the politics. We don’t think that Johnson is bluffing. Johnson and his team have concluded - as have we - that he must deliver Brexit before an election. It is as simple as that.Â
We still do not rule out a deal with the EU. The prospect of a no-deal Brexit - likely coinciding with a recession - might concentrate minds on both sides. But the political obstacles are even harder now. It is technically possible to envisage a fudge on the Irish backstop, but Johnson is now insisting that the backstop is formally dropped. The EU cannot accept that. We noted an article by Katy Balls in the Spectator reporting on comments by Dominic Cummings, who told Downing Street staff that no matter what happens the government will force through Brexit on October 31. Â
Wolfgang Munchau writes in his FT column that the EU too, should prepare for a no-deal Brexit. The EU is technically prepared - at the level of the European Commission - but not politically or economically. Munchau said he is not sure that EU solidarity with Ireland will hold up when it is apparent that a no-deal Brexit will bring job losses.
We think there is now only one undisputed way to stop a no-deal Brexit. Parliament holds a vote of no confidence in the government in September. If there is a majority against the government, parliament could unite around an alternative prime minister within 14 days as foreseen in the fixed-term parliaments act. That would mean that Labour, rebel Tories, LibDems and assorted nationalists and independents would agree to elect one person - a technical prime minister as the Italians would call it - with the sole mandate to ask for a short Brexit extension and pave the way for elections. We do not think there is such a majority in parliament - not by a long shot. And, as Jeremy Corbyn has made it clear over the weekend, he is getting his party ready to fight an election on the theme of poverty.Â
Meanwhile, we noted more Guardian and Observer journalists descending into outright panic over the prospect that Johnson could succeed in uniting the Brexit vote, while the more diffuse Remain vote is split across three parties in England - Labour, LibDems, and Greens - plus nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales. The polls are beginning to register this trend too, with the Tories regaining the voters they lose to Nigel Farage.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Lord Beria3 wrote:
The other big news development over the weekend was a Times story on the government’s legal advice, according to which elections won’t stop a no-deal Brexit. We are not surprised by this, as the contrary argument rested on the false assumption that a no-deal Brexit constitutes a decision when it is an already legislated default. The attorney general has thus neutered the one trump card MPs thought they had in stopping a no-deal Brexit. They assumed, wrongly, that the government would have to request a Brexit extension in case of an election. The EU would, of course, grant an extension if a request were made. But there is nothing in UK or EU law that would force Boris Johnson to make such a request.
This is misleading. There is a mechanism for stopping forcing an extension in the case of an election, it just doesn't involve forcing Johnson to request it. The path to an election involves a VonC, but a successful VonC is not immediately followed by an election. Instead, there is a two week period when parliament can try to assemble an alternative government. This is exactly what it would do, with somebody like Yvette Cooper as a temporary Prime Minister of an administration which had the sole purpose of asking the EU for an extension before dissolving itself for the election.
We think there is now only one undisputed way to stop a no-deal Brexit. Parliament holds a vote of no confidence in the government in September. If there is a majority against the government, parliament could unite around an alternative prime minister within 14 days as foreseen in the fixed-term parliaments act. That would mean that Labour, rebel Tories, LibDems and assorted nationalists and independents would agree to elect one person - a technical prime minister as the Italians would call it - with the sole mandate to ask for a short Brexit extension and pave the way for elections. We do not think there is such a majority in parliament - not by a long shot.
Utter nonsense. If there's sufficient numbers to win a VonC then there is sufficient numbers to install a temporary government. Exactly the same people would vote for both. Which MP is going to vote to VonC the government then not vote to extend article 50?
Labour rebels don't have to vote for the government in a VoNC all they have to do is stay at home on the day and abstain in sufficient numbers. They can then say to their constituents that they haven't vote Remain and haven't voted in support of the Tories if they find that necessary to keep their seat.
I was off at CAT running a cob building course over the weekend and met a Serbian gentleman taking the course who has been here for 26 years. He is vehemently a Brexiteer because he sees that the way the Euro is going is going to start a war in Europe between those who are imposing austerity and those who are on the receiving end of the austerity. He sees the UK leaving Europe as a way of destroying the Eurozone to the benefit of southern Europeans who would revert to their own currencies and be able to print their way out of monetary austerity.
I an also reading a book called "How the Euro Dies" by Nickolai Hubble who is editor of Southbank Investment Daily which looks at the history of failure of currency unions throughout the world and the history of illegality and fudges used to keep the Euro going in recent years. He concludes that with the German economy having too low an interest rate and the southern European economies having too high a rate the Eurozone is due for catastrophic collapse very soon, with the collapse of the Italian economy being the trigger, and that we stand a better chance of survival being out of Europe than being in when the collapse happens and being sucked down with the sinking ship.
My thoughts are that if we are somehow forced to stay in Europe by Parliament that the EU would give us an ultimatum to join the Euro or be chucked out of Europe. Europe has always responded to adversity by adopting policies for "Ever Greater Union" and this would be their logical reaction to help save the project to which they are addicted. Parliament as currently constituted might well be stupid enough to "be forced" into accepting the ultimatum and going into the Euro. This would lead to austerity in the UK the likes of which only the Greek people know.
If there is a general election before 31 Oct then the labour rebels (leaver supporting MPs) are screwed no matter what they do imo. They will all lose their seats to brexit party candidates, they're still labour no matter what they do and the pro-brexit majority in their constituencies (which I assume is one of the reasons they have this stance in the first place) will vote brexit party as they're more assured of brexit that way.
Brexit party to get 40ish MPs. Labour to gain a few MPs overall. Tories to lose 70-90MPs with the balance of seats from that (30 or so) shifting to the lib dems who will poll well but not have concentrated support to really gain the MPs they should for the %age. An interesting parliament with, unfortunately, Corbyn as PM for a few months before his coalition falls apart and we do this all over again. God only knows what the result would be that time.
Why would Corbyn stand aside and let a blairite or worse, a Tory, become PM - it would effectively hand power within the Labour party to the right-wing factions and destroy his credibility.
Corbyn and his hard left faction have waited decades to gain control of the Labour party. They won't give up now, even if it is to stop no-deal Brexit.
Well, it strikes me as highly unlikely.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Forex shifts are object lesson in costs of complacent analysis
Until a few weeks ago, we kept on saying that the markets were wrong on Brexit - the probability of a no-deal Brexit was higher than the market consensus believed. Complacent observers bought into the notion that the UK parliament would somehow find a way to stop a no-deal Brexit. Since then, market expectations have adjusted to what we think is a more realistic position - that the risks are substantial but still well below certainty. There is still the possibility of a pre-Brexit election, or some other form of political or legal backlash in the UK. And, who knows, the EU and the UK might still end up agreeing a deal. We think the slide of sterling broadly reflects this shift in expectations. If no-deal Brexit happens, sterling will slide further. The current levels seem to be better aligned with the risks we know - while previously markets were clearly underpricing the risks of a no-deal Brexit.
The slide in sterling is one of several factors that makes it hard to predict the economic impact of a no-deal Brexit. The exchange rate has already fallen by more than tariffs would rise. This would be the big shock absorber - along with monetary and fiscal policies.
The Economist offers an intelligent, and mercifully prejudice-free, discussion on the difficulty of estimating the future impact of Brexit on the economy. We agree with their classification of the three effects - tariffs, non-tariff barriers and dynamic effects. We disagree with the assertion that the latter are mostly negative on the grounds that the departure from a single market could depress productivity growth. We note that the UK was a productivity laggard even during its period in the single market. There could be offsetting effects on productivity growth. Being outside the EU’s regulatory regime could bring advantages depending on what you do, for example in areas such as artificial intelligence and biotech research. Brexit could shift the specialisation of the economy over a long period. Or it could end up being a missed opportunity. But whether it is one or the other will depend on policies that have yet to be decided. It is not something one can forecast.
But we welcome the more sober nature of the debate compared to 2016.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Why would Corbyn stand aside and let a blairite or worse, a Tory, become PM - it would effectively hand power within the Labour party to the right-wing factions and destroy his credibility.
Because they'd only be PM for about a week, and there would be an election. It's just a mechanism, not a "real" prime minister. The moment such a person tried to anything other than strictly get an extension and call an election, that temporary government would immediately collapse again.
Corbyn and his hard left faction have waited decades to gain control of the Labour party. They won't give up now, even if it is to stop no-deal Brexit.
Corbyn would remain leader of the Labour Party. There's nothing that says the Prime Minister needs to be the leader of a party. Yvette Cooper could be temporary PM while Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party. She wouldn't even appoint a cabinet. She'd just go to Brussels, get the extenstion, and call an election.
