Brexit process

[PS_RalphW]

And electoral reform

[UndercoverElephant]

And electoral reform

Possibly, yes. That might depend on opinion in the labour party though. The majority of labour members want a second referendum. I am not so sure a majority want electoral reform, though it is possible. Perhaps if there's a variant of electoral reform which seems likely to benefit Labour.

[Snail]

Just watching things after a time ignoring all things politics. Johnson doing everything right: staying true to himself, assembling a solid team, providing energy after stale May. Active rather than previous pacifist inactivity.

A lot of people who voted brexit party will return to the Conservatives. I've no doubt about that.

The labour and libdem leaders provide no great challenge to Boris.

[UndercoverElephant]

A lot of people who voted brexit party will return to the Conservatives. I've no doubt about that.

Of course. But not enough to offset the number who will switch from the tories to the libdems.

[Little John]

A lot of people who voted brexit party will return to the Conservatives. I've no doubt about that.

Of course. But not enough to offset the number who will switch from the tories to the libdems.

On what basis do you make that claim?

It is certainly the case that a significant number of Tory MP's are pro remain, either overtly or covertly However, it is far less clear that Tory voters would switch to Lib Dem as exemplified by the EU election results and it is a dead cert that next to none of the members would do so.

[cubes]

Just watching things after a time ignoring all things politics. Johnson doing everything right: staying true to himself, assembling a solid team, providing energy after stale May.

True to himself? Nobody knows what he really stands for (apart from whatever's best for Boris!). That solid team... some of whom would have been sacked from any other job with no hope of reemployment with some of the stuff they have done. The public knows he's full of flim-flam and lacks any real substance.

[Little John]

Just watching things after a time ignoring all things politics. Johnson doing everything right: staying true to himself, assembling a solid team, providing energy after stale May.

True to himself? Nobody knows what he really stands for (apart from whatever's best for Boris!). That solid team... some of whom would have been sacked from any other job with no hope of reemployment with some of the stuff they have done. The public knows he's full of flim-flam and lacks any real substance.

On what basis do you make the claim that "...The public knows he's full of flim-flam and lacks any real substance...."?

[Snail]

By "true to himself" I meant he hasn't altered his outward persona, or the way he does things.

I think its too easy to simply voice these obvious criticisms. Who can say how true they are? They're usually just oft-repeated sentences and ideas which have evolved into pleasurable memes.

Like little john asked, how do you know what the public thinks?
And what Boris Johnson is really like.

They're just opinions.

Personally, I got tired of the easy bs.

I suppose make sure you own your opinions. Swallow and regurgitate, and swallow again.

[UndercoverElephant]

A lot of people who voted brexit party will return to the Conservatives. I've no doubt about that.

Of course. But not enough to offset the number who will switch from the tories to the libdems.

On what basis do you make that claim?

A hunch.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think Johnson is trying to deliberately provoke parliament into VonCing him. I think he wants an election, hoping to increase his majority, but also wants to pretend that he doesn't want an election. So he's gone as full hard brexit as possible. For him it is a win/win - he gets to present himself as optimistic, determined, daring, and proves his credentials as a brexiteer. But he doesn't want to get blamed for calling an election if the tories lose it. He wants Grieve and Clarke to be blamed for that.

[BritDownUnder]

I think Johnson is trying to deliberately provoke parliament into VonCing him. I think he wants an election, hoping to increase his majority, but also wants to pretend that he doesn't want an election. So he's gone as full hard brexit as possible. For him it is a win/win - he gets to present himself as optimistic, determined, daring, and proves his credentials as a brexiteer. But he doesn't want to get blamed for calling an election if the tories lose it. He wants Grieve and Clarke to be blamed for that.

At first I thought your spellchecker was crazy but I presume VonC = Vote of no Confidence. Right?

[UndercoverElephant]

I think Johnson is trying to deliberately provoke parliament into VonCing him. I think he wants an election, hoping to increase his majority, but also wants to pretend that he doesn't want an election. So he's gone as full hard brexit as possible. For him it is a win/win - he gets to present himself as optimistic, determined, daring, and proves his credentials as a brexiteer. But he doesn't want to get blamed for calling an election if the tories lose it. He wants Grieve and Clarke to be blamed for that.

At first I thought your spellchecker was crazy but I presume VonC = Vote of no Confidence. Right?

Yes.

[Little John]

I think Johnson is trying to deliberately provoke parliament into VonCing him. I think he wants an election, hoping to increase his majority, but also wants to pretend that he doesn't want an election. So he's gone as full hard brexit as possible. For him it is a win/win - he gets to present himself as optimistic, determined, daring, and proves his credentials as a brexiteer. But he doesn't want to get blamed for calling an election if the tories lose it. He wants Grieve and Clarke to be blamed for that.

That sounds plausible

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest... the fear from the guardian is palpable...

Could Johnson succeed?

Yesterday was an important day in British politics. It shifted previous expectations that a Boris Johnson premiership would be short-lived. Perhaps the intruding event was the appointment of the feared and revered Leave-vote mastermind, Dominic Cummings. This appointment sends out the clearest signal that this is not a team to govern but a team to win an election, as Fraser Nelson put in his Telegraph column. We have been arguing for some time that an early election is not a threat for Johnson but a promise. He is ready. So are the LibDems. But Labour is not. The perfect scenario for Johnson.

We need to read Johnson’s categorical rejection of the Irish backstop and his do-or-die promise of October 31 as Brexit day in this context. Johnson is not negotiating right now. There is no point in the EU responding to him. Michel Barnier is right when he writes that the EU should do nothing, except wait and see.

Johnson’s strategy is to get back all the voters who deserted the Tories for the Brexit party. The more he pushes for a hard Brexit, the more voters he will get back. At the same time, he is shifting the Tories towards liberal cosmopolitan positions on social issues, for example on immigration.  

The preference of his team is to deliver Brexit first, and then hold elections. At the same they are getting ready for early elections if need be. We don’t think that the current polling numbers give an accurate prediction of the likely political dynamics. If Johnson succeeds in uniting the Leave vote, the game is over. Remainers are split between Labour and LibDems nationwide, and between these and the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales. 

Peter Foster offers an interesting variant of the above theme. His scenario is one in which parliament tries to prevent a no-deal Brexit by forcing an early election. The Johnson/Cummings team will campaign on a theme of betrayal, and win big. After the victory, Johnson goes back to the EU and starts negotiating in earnest. Only then will his position shift. 

One of the bellwethers for a shift in UK politics is the sheer sense of panic among Guardian columnists. They all agree that Johnson is really bad news. But we noted Rafael Behr now predicting that Johnson will be in Number 10 for a very long time. And we thought that this, from Suzanne Moore, is truly remarkable:

"While everyone, most importantly the EU itself, says that Johnson cannot achieve what he wants to, it feels as if at last a decision has been made. Do not underestimate how appealing to the electorate that may be."

A potentially opposing force are the bloody rivalries within the pro-Brexit camp. Cummings is probably the smartest political operator in UK politics right now. But he is also divisive. He famously described David Davis as "thick as mince". His hobby is to invent expletives to describe the European Research Group crowd. Its deputy, Steve Baker, yesterday rejected a government job fearing that he would be sidelined. For now, the discontented sceptics have indeed been sidelined. We predict that party unity will hold until the elections. If Johnson wins and delivers Brexit, all is well. If not, then not.

[UndercoverElephant]

We have been arguing for some time that an early election is not a threat for Johnson but a promise. He is ready. So are the LibDems. But Labour is not. The perfect scenario for Johnson.

Nonsense. Labour is absolutely ready for an election. They've been agitating for an election for months. If they thought they would win it, they'd call a VonC on Monday.

The preference of his team is to deliver Brexit first, and then hold elections. At the same they are getting ready for early elections if need be. We don’t think that the current polling numbers give an accurate prediction of the likely political dynamics. If Johnson succeeds in uniting the Leave vote, the game is over.

This really is incredibly naive. Johnson has no chance whatsoever of uniting the leave vote. Not unless he commits to raising taxes on the rich and raising the minimum wage.

"While everyone, most importantly the EU itself, says that Johnson cannot achieve what he wants to, it feels as if at last a decision has been made. Do not underestimate how appealing to the electorate that may be."

That much is true. Johnson has already shown how impotent and useless Theresa May really was. What has changed is that she was terrified of both an election and any alternative to her deal, whereas Johnson is willing to go for both an election and no deal.