The truth about the claim climate has always been changing

[kenneal - lagger]

Yes it has and here's why and here's why things are not changing as they used to. A masterclass of Milankovitch cycles, CO2, CH4, the sun and what ever else you might think is going on. Just take 56 minutes of really interesting and sometimes amusing time off to watch this.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Yes it has and here's why and here's why things are not changing as they used to. A masterclass of Milankovitch cycles, CO2, CH4, the sun and what ever else you might think is going on. Just take 56 minutes of really interesting and sometimes amusing time off to watch this.

I loved the end where he showed the 2m sea level rise and asked about the valuation of Florida real estate based on how much of it was within 10' of sea level.

See ya later Bourbon Street to!

Edited: Great presentation by the way. Love geologists who don't talk like pedantic academics, this guy does it right.

[kenneal - lagger]

Sea level might only rise by a certain level but once that sea level starts rising further erosion will set in and more extreme weather events will add to that erosion. So to decide what is your safe height to live above sea level you have to look at your local ground type and think how much will disappear in addition to what will be flooded. Granite will obviously be a safer bet than sand or clay.

[woodburner]

I have another 15mins to watch. Bear in mind this was published in 2012 and he said we “are heading for a maximum solar activity�. True at the time. However, this year there has been most days without any sunspots. The solar activity is going into a minimum.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

I have another 15mins to watch. Bear in mind this was published in 2012 and he said we “are heading for a maximum solar activity�. True at the time. However, this year there has been most days without any sunspots. The solar activity is going into a minimum.

It's all in the noise woodburner. I love geologists, they really do know better than to get all carried away in the now, and the guy doesn't like modeling much either, because it is too complex, and besides, it's all in the noise!

Let's hear it for geologic time! Hip Hip Huzzah!

[kenneal - lagger]

I have another 15mins to watch. Bear in mind this was published in 2012 and he said we “are heading for a maximum solar activity�. True at the time. However, this year there has been most days without any sunspots. The solar activity is going into a minimum.

We were heading for the peak on susnspot cycle 24 at that time. We are now at the minimum between the end of cycle 24 and the beginning of 25 as they run on a roughly 11 year cycle. The maximum of cycle 24 was a very low number compared to most in the last 100 years.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

I have another 15mins to watch. Bear in mind this was published in 2012 and he said we “are heading for a maximum solar activity�. True at the time. However, this year there has been most days without any sunspots. The solar activity is going into a minimum.

We were heading for the peak on susnspot cycle 24 at that time. We are now at the minimum between the end of cycle 24 and the beginning of 25 as they run on a roughly 11 year cycle. The maximum of cycle 24 was a very low number compared to most in the last 100 years.

And the guy claimed that because most of the expected sea level rise would arrive at the end of the still ongoing melting, the ocean front real estate looks to be in better shape than expected in the near to mid term. That is really going to chap the hide of the folks who figure like some significant fraction of the world's population is going to need to move next week to flee the rising seas.

[woodburner]

Move next week? They should have done it last week. It’s too late now.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Move next week? They should have done it last week. It’s too late now.

Not based on the current sales still happening in oceanfront real estate.

[kenneal - lagger]

More papers which show how unusual the current warming is.

Current warming 'unparalleled' in 2,000 years

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

More papers which show how unusual the current warming is.

Current warming 'unparalleled' in 2,000 years

I noticed that one. Looked to me like a retread of Mann's original hockey stick claim, hopefully without the statistical cockup.

[stumuz1]

Message for Ken:

Person on Radio 4 PM programme ruminating about plans for Zero carbon Britain 2050.

Gov' looking at GSHP/ASHP as a replacement to gas boilers. BUT, insulation must be super dooper.

I thought, Ken on PowerSwitch has been banging on about this for years!

Looks like you were right.

[kenneal - lagger]

Thanks, Stu. I have been banging on about higher insulation levels since the mid 1970s and it has always been the right way to go even if daft economists and even dafter builders said I was putting too much insulation in. The "economic" level of insulation in those days was practically nothing in the walls, an aircrete block would do, and two inches, 50mm, in the loft. The 100mm in the wall and 200 in the loft which I was specifying was way over the top and "uneconomic". The people who did put it in have been living in much more comfort with much lower bills than their neighbours ever since.

The 150 mm in the walls with 50 under the floor and 200 in the roof that was put in my own house has only recently been surpassed in the Building Regulations and resulted in a 2300 sq ft house with a 6kW heat load at a 21 degree temperature difference. The electricity supply to our lane was cut off during a blizzard in 1982, I think it was, and we were able to keep the house comfortable using only the wood burning stove in the living room. All the other houses were freezing so we were told.

[BritDownUnder]

Air source heat pumps are very much the standard in Australia, only Victoria seems to still have gas heating. Ground source are strictly for the one percenters at the moment, I have enquired and got nowhere. Pity as I estimate with a ground temperature of 23degC I would get a COP of 11 when in heating mode. Cooling on a 40 plus degree day would be less efficient COP but still useful.

From my experience the ASHP seem to struggle when the outside temperature gets close to zero. I think the COP is worked out at 7degC in Australia for heating.

A former poster got a GSHP at his residence in the country, a old farmhouse if I recall correctly and got a lashing about not having got insulated first.

Now I will have to go and look at all the links to see what this thread was originally about.

[kenneal - lagger]

Frank Luntz, the man who told the GOP that they should "emphasize a lack of scientific certainty around climate change and drop “global warming� for the less scary-sounding “climate change�" is now an advocate of climate change and its mitigation. One of the people whose propaganda against climate change/global warming our own woodburner listened to and followed closely has now had his mind changed by the reality of the changes that have affected him personally.

https://grist.org/article/the-gops-most ... te-action/

Is there hope for woodburner? Will he experience his own "road to Damascus"?