Brexit process

[fuzzy]

I think that is largely true, but I don't think 'the media' claims the EU is bad.

The EU does cause some problems with immigration and lobbyist designed rules.

We haven't been given a vote on other issues, or on immigration in general, since the city of london decided 80 years ago that it was gov policy.

[clv101]

I think that is largely true, but I don't think 'the media' claims the EU is bad.

The EU does cause some problems with immigration and lobbyist designed rules.

We haven't been given a vote on other issues, or on immigration in general, since the city of london decided 80 years ago that it was gov policy.

This comes back to what I said about Westminster Vs EU problems. Arguably, a major driver for UKIP etc was Tony Blair's handling of EU accession countries. Westminster had a lot more power under EU rules then they chose to implement.

[Little John]

The casual authoritarianism of Remoaners

Jo Swinson and Caroline Lucas say they would reject the result of a second referendum if it was pro-Leave. We can now see how dangerous and anti-democratic these people are. To overturn democracy again and again — that’s what tyrants do, says Tom Slater

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/07/2 ... remoaners/

In 1945, Clement Attlee said referendums were ‘the instrument of Nazism and fascsim’. In 1975, Margaret Thatcher, nodding to Attlee, said referendums are a ‘device of dictators and demagogues’.

These quotes have been dug out time and again since the EU referendum, by Remainers horrified by the result. They slot Attlee’s and Thatcher’s remarks into their own warped view that democracy equals fascism. People are so dumb and wicked, goes the thinking, that we’re just waiting to elect genocidal maniacs. Referendums are not democratic exercises because it is all too easy for demagogues to mislead the sheeple.

But if anyone has been trying to use nominally ‘democratic’ processes to authoritarian ends recently, who has been trying to use the language of democracy against democracy, it is the Remainer elite. And in recent days, two of the political leaders of the Remain outlook, Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson and Green Party MP Caroline Lucas, let slip their authoritarian intentions.

Swinson and Lucas are among those calling for a second referendum on Brexit. But when pushed by separate BBC interviewers as to whether they would accept the result of another referendum if the country voted Leave again, they both said no. On BBC News yesterday, Swinson said ‘No’, adding that ‘I’m going to do what I was sent here to do’. On Politics Live today, Lucas was at least more direct: ‘Um, no I probably wouldn’t.’

These admissions explode the argument the so-called People’s Vote campaign is still trying to make with a straight face. That is that while the electorate voted for Brexit, we didn’t vote for any particular Brexit deal. We should therefore have a right to vote on the terms, and if we now want to change our minds – that’s fine too!
What is the real ‘Orwellian nightmare’ now?
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Mick Hume

Clearly, this was always bollocks. A second referendum is not about us having a final say – it is a means to an anti-democratic end, and the result would also be ignored if it went the ‘wrong’ way.

Given the anti-democratic bile that has been been spewed from Remoaners these past three years, Swinson’s and Lucas’s slips are hardly shocking. But we need to make clear what they are saying here. They are saying they are only willing to accept the outcome of democratic votes if they win them. This is the attitude of autocrats, happy to hold an election but only if one party is on the ballot. They are willing to use the ballot box to bolster their position, but just as willing to reject the result if they lose.

It’s amazing how inured we have become to these kind of authoritarian Remoaner arguments. Remember when Donald Trump refused to say whether he would accept the result of the 2016 US election if he lost? Liberals lost their shit – and rightly so, for once. But when essentially the same attitude is voiced by two leading Remainers, it is deemed by commentators to be eminently sensible – the leadership Britain needs!

For all the pearl-clutching over Boris Johnson’s history of spicy statements, what Swinson and Lucas have said in the past 24 hours is far worse than anything our new PM ever dashed out on a deadline. And this casual authoritarianism has become worryingly mainstream among the chattering classes.

[Little John]

Anti democracy, in a nutshell

https://order-order.com/2019/07/24/caro ... eferendum/

[Little John]

And here is another anti democrat

https://order-order.com/2019/07/23/jo-s ... eferendum/

[UndercoverElephant]

So Raab is the Foreign Secretary (edit: and deputy PM) and the cabinet has been purged of anyone who won't support no deal. We now know that Johnson has no intention of being May Mk II.

How long until the election is declared?

EDIT. Priti Patel is Home Secretary. WOW. The remainer wing of the tory party must be wondering what hit them.

Sacked (10, so far):
Hunt
Mordaunt
Fox
Clark
Hinds
Bradley
Wright
Mundell
Brokenshire
Nokes

Resigned (4):
Hammond
Gauke
Stewart
Perry

Retired (2):
Grayling
Lidington

[woodburner]

And here is another anti democrat

https://order-order.com/2019/07/23/jo-s ... eferendum/

Jo Swinson has all the appeal of Nicola Sturgeon.

[UndercoverElephant]

And here is another anti democrat

https://order-order.com/2019/07/23/jo-s ... eferendum/

Jo Swinson has all the appeal of Nicola Sturgeon.

She is very appealing to a specific demographic. Not so much to anybody who falls outside of that demographic.

[Lord Beria3]

So far so good.

Boris seems determined to bring a new government and sweep away some of the old guard.

Prospects of a change to the withdrawal treaty looks unlikely with the EU digging in their heels.

Can Boris deliver Brexit, no-deal if necessary, by the end of 2019? I have no idea tbh.

Eurointelligence latest...

Johnson has more options than you think
The big news is that something that was going to happen, did happen.

So, where now? There is broad consensus among political commentators in the UK, and especially in the rest of the world, that Johnson is flaky and will fail to get anything done - including Brexit. We cannot rule out that this might indeed happen. But our view on him right now is more nuanced. He may play the jester, but he is no fool. The fools are usually those who are distracted by appearances.

The first thing we note is that political events are conspiring in his favour. One of those is the decision by Jeremy Corbyn to postpone a no-confidence vote until after the UK parliament returns from its holiday on Sep 3. The timing is critical. As we explained in a previous article, this gives Johnson time to seek a new deal while retaining at least the option to trigger a no-deal Brexit since parliament would be suspended during an election campaign.

The interim-leader scenario is also becoming less likely. Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, a vote of no confidence would give the Commons an opportunity to replace Johnson with an interim prime minister. But that would require unity among opposition parties, which is simply not there. Jo Swinson, the newly LibDem leader, said yesterday that she will not enter into coalition with Corbyn, provoking a furious response from Labour. She was a business minister in the Tory/LibDem coalition under David Cameron. Her election as party leader has reopened old wounds.

Readers might also want to cast their eye towards the second big news item yesterday. It concerns Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, who has been engulfed in a sordid scandal involving false child-abuse allegations. Watson has been, until now, the most effective and most senior Labour campaigner in favour of a second referendum, and his political future is now in doubt.

So, in the week that Johnson takes over, the opposition is less effective than it was a week earlier. And there is no sign yet of a Tory rebellion against Johnson. The scenario in which such a rebellion could unfold - Johnson actively seeking a no-deal Brexit - might never come.

One of Johnson’s most important and immediate strategic decisions will be whether to trigger elections before October, or deliver Brexit first and hold elections afterwards.

We think he will try to negotiate a new deal first. The EU will, of course, not agree to big changes. It will certainly not drop the Irish backstop. But what it could offer, a combination of a longer transition period with a new political declaration, might still generate a useful smokescreen.

It is hard to predict whether the Commons would vote in favour of a revamped deal. We know that some Labour MPs are more open to supporting the withdrawal deal now than they were before. But as we game this scenario further down the line, more uncertainty sets in. Corbyn may recover. Or he may be replaced. Johnson’s honeymoon may be over. The mood in the country could shift in one or the other direction. It is a mug’s game to make a prediction.

What suggests that Johnson will at least have a go at serious negotiations was his appointment yesterday of David Frost as his new EU sherpa. Frost is a former special adviser to Johnson, with a lot of experience of European affairs.

Our own recommendation to Johnson would be to seek immediate elections. But this is not a forecast of what will happen. We think that Labour is currently in its most vulnerable position. Corbyn’s popularity is at an all-time low. Watson is a diminished figure. The stench of anti-semitism still hangs over the Labour party. And the party's Brexit strategy is still not settled. We also expect to the pro-Remain vote to split more than the pro-Leave vote.

The Tories currently have a working majority of two seats - including those of the Northern Irish DUP. On August 1, they will almost certainly lose another seat in a by-election in Wales, so the majority will be down to one. Minority governments can, on occasion, be surprisingly stable. But Brexit cannot be delivered, let alone managed, with such a small majority. We agree with the Times columnist and Tory peer Daniel Finkelstein that an election will be forced on Johnson sooner or later, and his chances will never be as good as they are now.

But this view goes against the conventional wisdom in Westminster, that Johnson’s main objective is to avoid going down as the shortest-lived prime minister in British history. The trouble with that argument is that this might happen in any case.

[UndercoverElephant]

The first thing we note is that political events are conspiring in his favour. One of those is the decision by Jeremy Corbyn to postpone a no-confidence vote until after the UK parliament returns from its holiday on Sep 3. The timing is critical. As we explained in a previous article, this gives Johnson time to seek a new deal while retaining at least the option to trigger a no-deal Brexit since parliament would be suspended during an election campaign.

Parliament will not let this happen, for the same reason it won't let Johnson prorogue parliament. This new administration will not get away with delivering any brexit that is against the will of parliament. Bercow will rewrite the parliamentary rulebook to ensure this.

And there is no sign yet of a Tory rebellion against Johnson.

It's coming. It'll start to emerge on the next few hours.

[UndercoverElephant]

OK, crystal ball time.

I think this cabinet makes it very clear that Johnson knows he is going to be fighting an election before October 31st. There is no attempt to appease the anti-no-deal faction, and he's got no prospect of getting the EU to change the backstop. The idea is to show he means business.

Farage has said he's willing to do a deal, but the devil really is in the detail. I still don't see how such a deal could possibly work, unless the tories are willing to hand the brexit party seats that the tories themselves are hoping to win.

I guess the plan will be for the brexit party to stand in the leave-voting bits of the midlands and northern England, with no tory candidate. I think this tactic will fail spectacularly. I think it will play into Labour's hands, because the no deal vote will end up split between those who can stomach voting for a right-wing tory government, and those who can't. Meanwhile, the tories will haemorrhage remain-voting seats to the libdems.

I think the tories will be reduced to fewer than 250 seats, and Labour will end up gaining about 30, so about 280. Brexit Party won't win any seats at all, and we'll get a Corbyn government propped up by the libdems, and a deal vs remain referendum.

[clv101]

Yep, I think he expects an election before Brexit. As I said a few weeks ago he is trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party. Pro-active action to limit the damage they can inflict whilst hoping the LibDems take enough votes off Labour for Tories to be the largest party. Problem with this strategy is that it won't return an outright majority and coalition partners will be thin on the ground!

Could end up with a Labour led coalition even if Labour take fewer seats than Tories.

[UndercoverElephant]

...he is trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party. Pro-active action to limit the damage they can inflict whilst hoping the LibDems take enough votes off Labour for Tories to be the largest party. Problem with this strategy is that it won't return an outright majority and coalition partners will be thin on the ground!

Could end up with a Labour led coalition even if Labour take fewer seats than Tories.

I agree completely. The tories can't be the brexit party, because the brexit party's main appeal is that it is a no-deal party that isn't the tories.

[PS_RalphW]

The latest yougov poll has Tories 25%, LD 23% Labour 19% Brexit 17%

If this trend continues more and more Tory voters will defect to LD and they will be the largest party by vote share, yet get less than half the seats of the Tories.

Brexit would be below 20 seats if flavible is accurate.

An election now would be a big gamble for Johnson, we could end up with 5 parties that simply refuse to go into coalition with each other.

[UndercoverElephant]

The latest yougov poll has Tories 25%, LD 23% Labour 19% Brexit 17%

If this trend continues more and more Tory voters will defect to LD and they will be the largest party by vote share, yet get less than half the seats of the Tories.

Brexit would be below 20 seats if flavible is accurate.

An election now would be a big gamble for Johnson, we could end up with 5 parties that simply refuse to go into coalition with each other.

Don't need a formal coalition. LDs will do a C&S agreement with Labour in return for a second referendum.