Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

Neither UKIP nor the BXP will continue to exist in an electorally significant way if we leave with no deal.

I can imagine one or both of them sticking around to try to 'win the peace' so to speak, and keep the Tories 'honest'. UKIP also has an agenda beyond Brexit - they want to oppose multiculturalism - so I doubt they'll feel their work is done.

Very hard for them to have much of a voice without the EU elections as a protest vehicle. They won't win many council seats on that platform and they certainly won't be able to make inroads at westminster elections.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off the Tories winning the next election. They've got another 2.5 years to rebalance the economy after a no-deal Brexit. If they manage it, I expect they'll win again. They're notoriously good at winning elections they've no right to, especially when Labour can't decide who they are any more. Of course if the economy totally tanks, it'll be "I told you so" time en masse, and the Tories will be gone for a generation.

Well, if that happens then at least we got a decent brexit.

[kenneal - lagger]

Just posted this on Facebook and waiting for the outcry

As a No-Deal Brexit creeps ever closer reality seeps into the corridors of power in the city. You Remoaners can take your thumbs out of your mouths and dispense with the comfort blanket of the EU as, according to this pro EU German bank, things will be OK after 31st October. No need for the Project Fear lies any more.

Tess, the Labour Party knows who they are and that is mainly London centric champaign socialists. The wider Labour support is, unfortunately for the Party, more socially conservative, definitely with a small "c", lives north of Watford and can't stand what the London centric lot stand for. Who they would vote for if it came down to a Tory who was offering them continued independence or a Labour prospect offering them a rejoining of the EU I don't know. Large numbers have voted for the Conservative Party in the past and with those options could do so again, especially, as you said, if the Tories can put together a good record before the next election.

A QE for the people funded National Insulation Scheme might be an option, especially if it has a Green Deal like cash take back. The city might just OK that option as it wouldn't give too much away to the plebs!

[UndercoverElephant]

north of Watford

Just a quibble...

That should be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watford_Gap

[Lord Beria3]

Greers take on it...

Forecastingintelligence, the Tories at this point realize that if they don’t make Brexit happen on October 31 their party will be destroyed in the next election, and Nigel Farage will be heading for No. 10 with a coalition consisting of the Brexit Party and a few dozen surviving Tories. I stand by my prediction that there’ll be a hard Brexit, there will be maximum screaming and handwaving beforehand, then it will happen with minimal fuss and Britain’s working classes will get to experience the same kind of boom a lot of Americans in flyover states are enjoying right now.

And my take!

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... recession/

Enjoy!

[Lord Beria3]

Recent thinking from the pro EU German bank berenberg bank...

https://www.theglobalist.com/boris-john ... t-eu27-uk/

No deal? Think twice

Of course, the UK could choose to leave the EU without a deal and hence without a transition period.

The immediate economic disruption would probably be limited, for the EU27 much more so than for the UK. Planes would still fly, lorries would still roll, medicines would still be delivered and financial regulators would see to it that existing derivatives contracts would not blow up.

In practice, the transition to general border controls and the ensuing damage to cross-Channel supply chains would probably be gradual.

The UK would feel the pain mostly over time through significantly lower trend growth. Many companies using the UK as their key base to serve the entire European markets would scale down their UK operations. Some skilled migrants from the Europe would likely leave the UK.

Interesting comments.

Key is that no deal is not the economic nightmare of Remainer fears within the uk.

The geopolitics is far more interesting. I think BB underestimate the medium term implications of a hard Brexit and the uk shifting towards America.

Also the British voted for Brexit and have priced in a degree of short term disruption. No continental voted for Brexit. The pain threshold is far lower across the channel.

That psychological aspect to any no deal fallout has not been properly thought through it seems.

[UndercoverElephant]

To be honest, I don't think anybody (at all) actually knows what a no deal would be like. The remainers are certainly exaggerating at least some of the bad consequences, and it is extremely hard to predict what, if any, the benefits would be. It would be a massive leap in the dark.

Personally speaking, it would still be my preferred brexit outcome, given that the only alternatives currently on offer are known to be terrible. I'd rather roll the dice than go for a known bad outcome.

[Lord Beria3]

Agree.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... k-gym.html

Interesting report.

Sounds like there are widespread chatter within Westminster of Corbyn's health and I wouldn't rule it out. A party leader role, let alone a PM, is hard work, particularly for a 70 year old man.

If these reports are genuine, it is probably reflects a power struggle within Labour over Corbyn's refusal to go along with demands to endorse a 2nd referendum.

Hard Brexit supporters should pray Mr Corbyn clings on a little longer... on that note, at work, our resident Labour Red fan himself said he was disillusioned with Corbyn as leader.

Anecdotally (and polls support this), Corbyn mania seems to have peaked and melted away since 2017.

[fuzzy]

It is worrying that there isn't someone younger with the same qualities who is in the labour party, so he could retire.

[boisdevie]

"UKIP also has an agenda beyond Brexit - they want to oppose multiculturalism - so I doubt they'll feel their work is done. " I live in a town where we've had a growing muslim population for the last 50 years. Do you know how much they've integrated? Not one bit. That's just how great your beloved multiculturalism is in my neck of the woods.

[kenneal - lagger]

But is multiculturalism about integration or different cultures living their separate lives alongside each other? The British way of life has usually been about new cultures being subsumed into the way of life that those people came to this country to enjoy. Most now just come for the money.

[boisdevie]

But is multiculturalism about integration or different cultures living their separate lives alongside each other? The British way of life has usually been about new cultures being subsumed into the way of life that those people came to this country to enjoy. Most now just come for the money.

They come for the money and freebies but are not interested in the host culture at all and a lot seem actively hostile. They are taking the piss and we're letting them do it.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

Why no-deal Brexit has emerged as a strong probability

The hustings of the two Tory candidates for the leadership campaign continue, with the only difference that Jeremy Hunt has moved its position on Brexit - yet again. Yesterday he laid out his no-deal timetable. In doing so, he is picking up some votes. 

In the meantime, and perhaps more important, the UK parliament is also moving away from what appeared to be its intractable position on a no-deal Brexit. Nicholas Watt, the political editor of BBC Newsnight, said last night that the majorities in the UK parliament in favour of a Brexit-stopping no-confidence vote are simply not there. We always wondered whether MPs would really be ready to end their careers in a single heroic act. Some would, but not as many as needed. Over the weekend we heard a warning from Matthew Parris in the Times, a strong pro-Remain newspaper columnist and former Tory MP, who said he feared that Tories MPs would not go through with it. Watts has the numbers: there are 12 Labour MPs ready to accept a no-deal Brexit. On the other side there are only 6 Tory MPs who are ready to vote down their government over no-deal. With the current majorities they would need at least 15 or 16. Yesterday John Bercow, the Speaker of the Commons, ruled out another no-deal wrecking amendment brought by Dominique Grieve. The UK’s archaic parliamentary rules also conspire against MPs. They will have only few opportunities after the summer break to set legislation in motion that could stop a no-deal Brexit. But if they manage that - which we think they might - we don’t think the majorities are there for the few instruments that could stop a no-deal Brexit in October: outright revocation, legislation for a second referendum, or a no-confidence vote. In any case, the House of Commons is not in charge of its own timetable. The opposition has a few allocated days, in which it could take charge.

The reason for this shift is an overwhelming desire in the country to get Brexit done with. We have argued that it was a grave strategic error by MPs in favour of a customs union and/or the single market to vote against the withdrawal agreement - especially when that was offered as a separate choice without the political declaration. The EU is, of course, right to say that the withdrawal agreement is the only deal on offer. Where the soft Brexiteers and second-referendum supporters miscalculated was the idea that they could take no-deal off the table. There has never been any evidence to support that view. We see no majorities in favour of a Brexit revocation, so this leaves no-deal as the legal and political default position. We also believe that the European Council has underestimated the probability of a no-deal Brexit throughout - having relied too much on what they have been told by Theresa May and Olly Robbins.

Most recently, we noted that support for the Brexit Party has fallen, but be careful not to arrive at premature conclusions. People will vote for whoever they think will deliver Brexit by end-October. That is Boris Johnson for now. The reason Hunt is shifting his position is that he realised he would have no chance to win the Tory leadership contest otherwise. He is now picking up Brexit-supporting Tories who despise Johnson for personal reasons. But, even in the unlikely case that Hunt were to win the contest, Brexit politics will be the same. If the next PM doesn’t deliver Brexit, Tory voters will desert massively to the Brexit Party. If he does, the Brexit Party will fade away. It really is that binary

.

[Mark]

But is multiculturalism about integration or different cultures living their separate lives alongside each other? The British way of life has usually been about new cultures being subsumed into the way of life that those people came to this country to enjoy. Most now just come for the money.

They come for the money and freebies but are not interested in the host culture at all and a lot seem actively hostile. They are taking the piss and we're letting them do it.

Suspect that some 'communities' integrate better than others....
In general, the ones from the EU - Spain, Poland, France, seem to integrate fairly well...., whilst those from certain other parts of the world remain (and wish to remain) segregated....

That's the conundrum for those people that voted Brexit on immigration grounds....
The UK already has control of non-EU immigration, but has made a 'Horlix' of it for many years...
Why do people think that 'regaining control' of EU immigration will be handled any better ??
In fact, no-deal Brexit will probably result in much higher non-EU immigration....
For example, India's price for a trade-deal is more relaxed visa controls....

[Mark]

He also pointed out that UK animal welfare and environmental regulations were, in most cases, more stringent than those of the EU. In many other cases the government had been unable to act because of EU legislation.

So much for the Remainer lie of the environment being in danger if we leave the EU.

Really ?
Before we joined the EU, we were known as the dirty man of Europe....
Currently, the vast majority of our environmental laws are defined by EU Directives, which are then transposed into national legislation
ie they're all pretty much the same in every country - with the aim of a level playing field
Accept that the implementation/policing can vary from country to country, but the UK has been dragged through the courts time after time for non-compliance, so we're hardly a leader, but much better than when we joined....