flood watch

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 25 Jun 2019, 14:04

raspberry-blower wrote:The flooding in the Mid West is turning out to be an agricultural nightmare:

Zero Hedge: Shocking Before & After photos reveal the awful truth about widespread US crop failures

Interesting that the pictures appeared to characterize late planting, and not "failure".

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 25 Jun 2019, 14:22

So much for more CO2 in the air being good for plant growth!!

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 25 Jun 2019, 14:29

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:Interesting that the pictures appeared to characterize late planting, and not "failure". Sorry Mr and Mrs Farmer, looks like you will be selling your crop later in the summer. The good news? You'll still be selling your crop, and because for some folks there was indeed failure because of the spring flooding (as though that has never happened before!) the prices should be higher than you would otherwise have gotten! Every cloud..silver lining....etc etc....sorry invisible friend of psychotic character in a movie...better luck making up next world is ending story.

A late planting can end up with a much smaller return or even no return. OK so those lucky ones with some return might make up for some of the loss in higher prices but what about the consumer who will have to pay extra for their food on paltry minimum wages? What about those people in third world countries who now rely on US and EU food aid because previous dumping of surplus crops have put them out of business?

I would summarise your attitude, RGR, as "I'm alright, Jack." Your world might not be ending but many poorer people's world will be.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 25 Jun 2019, 14:31

kenneal - lagger wrote:So much for more CO2 in the air being good for plant growth!!

Seems to me that these crop failures (delays) were related to early flooding, and don't have anything at all to do with crop growth other than that.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 25 Jun 2019, 14:36

According to some people on this forum, more CO2 relates to increased crop growth - period!!. We have nearly 50% extra CO2 ion the air but less crop growth. Who's to say whether the early flooding was or was not related to more CO2 in the air? But what is plain is that more CO2 doesn't always end up with more crop growth. Other factors apply.

careful_eugene · Post by **careful_eugene** » 25 Jun 2019, 14:55

kenneal - lagger wrote:According to some people on this forum, more CO2 relates to increased crop growth - period!!. We have nearly 50% extra CO2 ion the air but less crop growth. Who's to say whether the early flooding was or was not related to more CO2 in the air? But what is plain is that more CO2 doesn't always end up with more crop growth. Other factors apply.

I've heard this argument before from Patrick Moore (Co-founder of Greenpeace), he has put forward the idea that increased crop yields since the 1960's are due to higher levels of CO2 in the air, completely disregarding the effects of the green revolution.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 25 Jun 2019, 15:01

kenneal - lagger wrote:According to some people on this forum, more CO2 relates to increased crop growth - period!!.

My reference wasn't to people on this forum, but rather a NASA publication.

careful_eugene · Post by **careful_eugene** » 25 Jun 2019, 15:32

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
I don't believe anyone can make the claim we have less crop growth.

How about, cereal yields in the UK as one example.

Or total US corn output in this century alone.

What does it matter that the UK produces more now than in 1270 or that the US produces more than in 2001? From 2017 - 2018 there was a 5.5% decrease in UK cereal crop yields (entirely due to the weather last year). Doesn't that count as "less crop growth?"

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 25 Jun 2019, 16:42

My comments related to the post above and the crop loss in the US this year due to abnormal rains. It was not a comment on previous year's crop yeilds.

A poster on this forum has said that more CO2 in the atmosphere increases crop yields while I have said that to take CO2 in isolation is not the true picture as crop yeilds depend on a range of factors. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is related to a number of disturbances in weather patterns and these weather patterns will have a noticeable influence on crop yeilds.

One of the predicted outcomes of increased CO2 will be more extreme weather and the length of the rains and their timing is unusual. Last years spring heavy rain in the UK and the extremely dry summer following resulted in a more than 5% drop in wheat yeilds and nearly 8% drop in barley despite the extra CO2.

To say that all that increase in UK cereal yeilds is due to CO2 is certainly a fallacy as almost all commentators would put it down to plant breeding and increased fertiliser use. Neither was I talking about total crop yeilds in this century. You are cherry picking statistics for your own benefit.

Your opinion is that weather happens while my opinion, gleaned from my personal appraisal of the science and my observations of weather in the UK over the years, is that we are seeing the increased extremes in weather predicted by climate scientists. I would like to see action taken on the climate hile you, RGR, are happy to bury your head in the sand and just carry on with business as usual.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 25 Jun 2019, 17:33

careful_eugene wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
I don't believe anyone can make the claim we have less crop growth.

How about, cereal yields in the UK as one example.

Or total US corn output in this century alone.
What does it matter that the UK produces more now than in 1270 or that the US produces more than in 2001? From 2017 - 2018 there was a 5.5% decrease in UK cereal crop yields (entirely due to the weather last year). Doesn't that count as "less crop growth?"

I just presented some data.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 25 Jun 2019, 17:48

kenneal - lagger wrote:My comments related to the post above and the crop loss in the US this year due to abnormal rains. It was not a comment on previous year's crop yeilds.

I see. Then this statement wasn't meant to be factual.

kenneal-lagger wrote: We have nearly 50% extra CO2 ion the air but less crop growth.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 25 Jun 2019, 21:21

Supposedly some plants using the C4 metabolic pathway, rather than the more common C3 pathway thrive in tropical areas. Supposedly they evolved to tolerate extremes of heat and metabolise CO2 more efficiently. Examples of C4 food plants are maize, millet, sugar cane and sorghum. Most other food crops are C3 which are more common in temperate areas.

Perhaps the world will shift to these crops in an era of hotter temperatures and higher CO2 concentrations. Time will tell.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 26 Jun 2019, 19:59

kenneal - lagger wrote:My comments related to the post above and the crop loss in the US this year due to abnormal rains. It was not a comment on previous year's crop yeilds.

A poster on this forum has said that more CO2 in the atmosphere increases crop yields while I have said that to take CO2 in isolation is not the true picture as crop yeilds depend on a range of factors. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is related to a number of disturbances in weather patterns and these weather patterns will have a noticeable influence on crop yeilds.

One of the predicted outcomes of increased CO2 will be more extreme weather and the length of the rains and their timing is unusual. Last years spring heavy rain in the UK and the extremely dry summer following resulted in a more than 5% drop in wheat yeilds and nearly 8% drop in barley despite the extra CO2.

To say that all that increase in UK cereal yeilds is due to CO2 is certainly a fallacy as almost all commentators would put it down to plant breeding and increased fertiliser use. Neither was I talking about total crop yeilds in this century. You are cherry picking statistics for your own benefit.

Your opinion is that weather happens while my opinion, gleaned from my personal appraisal of the science and my observations of weather in the UK over the years, is that we are seeing the increased extremes in weather predicted by climate scientists. I would like to see action taken on the climate hile you, RGR, are happy to bury your head in the sand and just carry on with business as usual.

Cherry picking seems to be common then. I said plant growth increases with CO2 increases, crop yeilds is a different matter. Cereals for example are now shorter straw and more seed head, whereas they used to be longer straw and smaller seed head. One of the old varieties was square head master. Very good for thatching, as long as it was harvested correctly. Todays short straw varieties would be useless for thatching, though may be ok for straw bale houses.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 26 Jun 2019, 20:40

woodburner wrote:....Cherry picking seems to be common then. I said plant growth increases with CO2 increases, crop yeilds is a different matter. Cereals for example are now shorter straw and more seed head, whereas they used to be longer straw and smaller seed head. One of the old varieties was square head master. Very good for thatching, as long as it was harvested correctly. Todays short straw varieties would be useless for thatching, though may be ok for straw bale houses.

We will know in a year or two if there has been reduced plant growth over the last two years because of inferior growing conditions by an examination of tree rings. If tree rings are narrower despite increased CO2 content of the air that will tell of the lie of increased plant growth in any situation of increased CO2. As far as I know there aren't many measures of general plant growth apart from tree ring width and crop yeilds. If anyone know of any I would be pleased to be told.

What the hell have modern or traditional straw varieties and their straw length got to do with CO2 content of the atmosphere?

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 26 Jun 2019, 20:44

BritDownUnder wrote:Supposedly some plants using the C4 metabolic pathway, rather than the more common C3 pathway thrive in tropical areas. Supposedly they evolved to tolerate extremes of heat and metabolise CO2 more efficiently. Examples of C4 food plants are maize, millet, sugar cane and sorghum. Most other food crops are C3 which are more common in temperate areas.

Perhaps the world will shift to these crops in an era of hotter temperatures and higher CO2 concentrations. Time will tell.

The problem in the Mid West of the US at the moment is increased rainfall caused by higher temperatures and maize doesn't like a wet seed bed. Global warming is also known as climate change for a reason; global warming can cause huge changes in local climates and doesn't necessarily mean that current climate will just move north a bit each year.