Brexit process

[clv101]

If Chris Davies does stand on the Tory ticket and The Brexit Party also field a candidate... then surely this will be a LibDem victory.

.. which means that Farage and the Tories need to work TOGETHER ...

Absolutely, this will be a big challenge for Johnson. He needs to figure out how to prevent BP taking dozens of Tory seats if we get a 2019 general election. A pact that sees BP not standing in Tory seats, in exchange for some top jobs in government? Farage for Foreign Secretary?!

[UndercoverElephant]

If Chris Davies does stand on the Tory ticket and The Brexit Party also field a candidate... then surely this will be a LibDem victory.

.. which means that Farage and the Tories need to work TOGETHER ...

Except this is brexit, and that won't work. Working with the tories will be the kiss of death for Farage. The moment that happens, the Brexit Party just becomes an appendage of the tory party, and loses all its anti-tory supporters. Massive decision for Farage.

[UndercoverElephant]

A pact that sees BP not standing in Tory seats, in exchange for some top jobs in government? Farage for Foreign Secretary?!

Does not work! The instant Farage does a deal with Johnson, people like me will stop voting for him. I want brexit, not a right-wing tory government with a solid majority.

[Lord Beria3]

Guardian reporting... sounds like Boris was the calm one and far more flattering.

Another neighbour, a nursery teacher who lives with her husband and four-year-old son in the top flat next door, told the Times that she could hear “shouting and screaming�.

Fatimah, 32, said: “It was really loud, loud enough to make me turn down the TV and see what was going on. I could hear shouting and screaming from a lady, she sounded really angry. There was a man’s voice too, but he was much calmer and he was telling her to calm down but she was still chucking things about,� she said. “It went on for about 10 minutes. I’ve never heard anything like it. I was considering calling the police but then a [police] van and car came.�

If this is a one off incident Johnson should be fine. His girlfriend needs to calm down and realise she's not a private citizen anymore. Shes a public figure.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -br03hdsv9

Boris Johnson has been warned that he is at high risk of being prime minister for just one day as Tory MPs launched a secret plot to stop the Queen asking him to replace Theresa May.

The Conservative chief whip, Julian Smith, told Johnson campaign chiefs Gavin Williamson and James Wharton on Thursday that there was a high likelihood he would lose a vote of no confidence within 24 hours of taking the job.

Smith revealed that two Tory MPs were on a “high-risk� watch list to defect from the party, destroying its majority in parliament and that a “handful� could jump ship to bring him down.

Key aides of Johnson and Jeremy Hunt were summoned to a meeting at Conservative campaign headquarters (CCHQ) on Thursday where Smith and the party chairman, Brandon Lewis, outlined plans for May to tender her resignation to the Queen after a final appearance at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, July 24.

Smith explained that Labour MPs had been placed on a “hard three-line whip� for the following day, when Jeremy Corbyn is expected to table a motion of no confidence in the new government — and warned that it could easily be lost.

Former ministers Guto Bebb and Phillip Lee are on Smith’s high-risk watch list. After the Tory MP Chris Davies was removed on Friday for expenses fraud, the Tories have a working majority of just four.

If they lose next month’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, caused by Davies’s demise, that will go down to three — meaning just two MPs switching votes could bring Johnson down.

Chief whip Julian Smith said two Tory MPs were on a ‘high-risk’ watch list to defect Chief whip Julian Smith said two Tory MPs were on a ‘high-risk’ watch list to defect. In one “doomsday� scenario, party bosses fear Bebb, who holds another Welsh seat, could defect to the Liberal Democrats in order run in the by-election against the Tories.

Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:

â—� Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.

â—� Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.

� A cross-party group of MPs is planning a second attempt to seize control of the parliamentary timetable to force a binding vote that could stop no-deal in its tracks. A previous attempt failed because the motion was proposed by the Labour front bench. “We won’t make that mistake again,� said one plotter.

� In an effort to press Johnson towards keeping a version of May’s Brexit deal, a group of 26 Labour MPs in leave seats, who say Brexit must happen, have held secret talks about bringing forward their own Brexit motion in order to show that Labour leavers would support leaving the EU with a deal over no-deal.

� Leading Brexiteer hardliners, headed by former Brexit minister Steve Baker, are warning Johnson that they are prepared to force a no-confidence vote of their own in the autumn if Johnson does not stick to his pledge to take the UK out of the EU at the end of October. “We made him and we can break him,� said one MP. “If Boris reneges on his promises, he’ll be out quicker than May was.�

The most serious immediate threat is a no-confidence motion in the final week of July. The Sunday Times has spoken to several MPs involved in the plot who claim they are prepared to risk a Corbyn government to stop a no-deal Brexit.

Remain-supporting MPs, including Lee, Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington and Antoinette Sandbach, were seen plotting in Portcullis House on Thursday afternoon.

A former minister said: “There comes a time when you believe something will be so damaging for the country that you come to the decision that the only way forward is to lie in front of the tanks.�

Another former minister said he would prefer to sit as an independent than continue to represent a party that has been “taken over by extremists�.

Johnson is being urged by his allies to reach out to the rebel remainers and vow to protect them from deselection if they promise to support him in motions of no confidence in the Commons.

This weekend, Johnson finds himself at the heart of a tug-of-love over his Brexit policy. Members of the European Research Group group of hardliners, who want a no-deal departure from the EU, are demanding that two of their number — Baker and Marcus Fysh — join the negotiating team, along with trade experts Crawford Falconer and Shanker Singham.

However, Johnson allies say the job of chief negotiator is more likely to be taken by David Frost, a former diplomat and businessman who was Johnson’s special adviser when he was foreign secretary.

At the same time, The Sunday Times can reveal that EU diplomats have launched a secret outreach effort to Johnson.

A senior European diplomat last week used an intermediary to tell the Tory leadership frontrunner that EU leaders in German, France, Holland and the European Commission are prepared to do business with him.

Both commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have signalled that they want to get Brexit finalised “on their watch� before the autumn and both are prepared to break off their summer holidays to meet him.

While the EU remains resistant to reopening the withdrawal agreement, Johnson has been told that they could add to it, will rewrite the political declaration on a future relationship and could wrap the whole thing up in a new “umbrella� deal.

That is unlikely to go far enough for Brexiteer hardliners whom Johnson has had to woo to help him secure the leadership.

[Lord Beria3]

Tough talk by tory rebels.

Are they really prepared to commit political suicide and let in a Corbyn government?

One assumes they would need to sign a formal agreement with labour to ensure corbyn had a stable majority

[UndercoverElephant]

Are they really prepared to commit political suicide and let in a Corbyn government?

It's not suicide if you are Clarke, Bebb or Lee. They all know they are in their last parliament anyway, due to retirement or deselection. And if the libdems win the by-election, it will only take these three.

One assumes they would need to sign a formal agreement with labour to ensure corbyn had a stable majority

I very much doubt it. I think they'd just indicate they are willing to vote with the opposition to trigger an election. The situation in this parliament is fundamentally unstable - there are no stable majorities on offer for anybody, and there cannot be until there has been an election which resets the mandates of the parties.

[Little John]

So, if a few MP's write to the Queen asking her to not let Johnson be PM, then that'll work...right?

Jesus, you are clutching at straws now.

It's pathetic

[Vortex2]

So, if a few MP's write to the Queen asking her to not let Johnson be PM, then that'll work...right?

Jesus, you are clutching at straws now.

It's pathetic

There is a precedent - the Queen has refused to approve at least one bishop IIRC.

[adam2]

The Queen can, in theory, decline to approve any potential prime minister.
The chances of this happening are virtually zero.

By long tradition, the Sovereign is non political and never gets involved in such matters.

Such traditions might of course be broken in truly extreme circumstances, but the chances of this happening over Brexit are negligible.

[Lord Beria3]

So, if a few MP's write to the Queen asking her to not let Johnson be PM, then that'll work...right?

Jesus, you are clutching at straws now.

It's pathetic

+1 - not going to happen UE.

Agree that an early general election is likely.

[UndercoverElephant]

So, if a few MP's write to the Queen asking her to not let Johnson be PM, then that'll work...right?

Jesus, you are clutching at straws now.

It's pathetic

Stop calling me pathetic, Steve. All I am doing is playing a game of trying to predict what is or is not going to happen. Why are you getting so upset about it? If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right, I'm right. And I've told you what I actually want out of this situation, and I don't really understand why you should have a problem with that either. Hating the tories isn't pathetic; it's normal.

[UndercoverElephant]

Agree that an early general election is likely.

Then tell me whether you think that Farage will do a deal with the tories, what sort of deal you think they'll do, and how it might affect the outcome.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48736968

Jeremy Hunt has added his voice to calls for Tory leadership rival Boris Johnson to answer questions about a row with his girlfriend which led to police being called to their address.

Hunt is playing a clever game here. I don't like him one little bit. I follow politics closely, and have thought he was a complete c*nt for many years now. But look at him in this clip - tie off, very relaxed, showing he's actually got his own campaign under control. Basically accusing Johnson of being a coward with no coherent policies. Hunt playing the "I'm a normal person, and will be a diligent, responsible prime minister" card, and it might just work.

Johnson needs to up his game, or he could lose this.

[clv101]

Johnson needs to up his game, or he could lose this.

I think it's very hard for him to lose this, his Tory party member electorate, just don't seem to care much about the personal qualities. Domestic with his (24 years his junior) girlfriend, whilst still married? It's hardly a statesmen like image.