Brexit process

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 20 Jun 2019, 20:13

Well said Little John.

UE admitted it himself. He would prefer to surrender to the EU if that caused the death of the Tory party. Through his own words tonight he confirmed he would betray his own country for a narrow party agenda.

There is a word for that...

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 20 Jun 2019, 20:16

So, Gove narrowly lost to Hunt.

The overwhelming consensus is that Boris will win with the activists which I concur with.

Prime Minister Johnson looks inevitable (or at least as likely as you can be in politics!).

Interesting times ahead.

The position of Brexit Secretary is key. The Torygraph was reporting recently that the Johnson team are planning to put Steve Baker in as Brexit Secretary which will put the cats among the pigeons!

That will likely shock many on the Continent and will trigger a plunge in sterling. Good news for me as I have opened up a short on sterling

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Jun 2019, 20:47

Little John wrote:
The only reason the withdrawal date has been moved several times is due to the Prime Minister (May) choosing to do so.

Oh come on. You know that isn't true. It was moved because parliament forced her to move it.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Jun 2019, 21:31

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
The only reason the withdrawal date has been moved several times is due to the Prime Minister (May) choosing to do so.
Oh come on. You know that isn't true. It was moved because parliament forced her to move it.

Okay, so spell out precisely, in primary legislative terms, how they did that then

Post by **clv101** » 20 Jun 2019, 21:52

Lord Beria3 wrote:So, Gove narrowly lost to Hunt.

The overwhelming consensus is that Boris will win with the activists which I concur with.

Prime Minister Johnson looks inevitable (or at least as likely as you can be in politics!).

Agreed, Johnson's got no competition with the members. However, I think Gove would have put up a better challenge than Hunt will. I wonder how many of Boris' supporters tactically voted for Hunt today to head off the Gove challenge.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Jun 2019, 22:15

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
The only reason the withdrawal date has been moved several times is due to the Prime Minister (May) choosing to do so.
Oh come on. You know that isn't true. It was moved because parliament forced her to move it.
Okay, so spell out precisely, in primary legislative terms, how they did that then

Sorry, but I really cannot be bothered to go back over the entire complicated process. This is a stupid argument anyway. If you think parliament can't stop no deal then good for you. Maybe you will be proved right. We will find out soon enough.

ETA: If push comes to shove and there is no way to force an extension, I think anti-no-deal tories will bring down the government. Johnson isn't even going to try to go down that path. He will call an election. Jump instead of waiting to be pushed. Better optics.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 20 Jun 2019, 23:08

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: Oh come on. You know that isn't true. It was moved because parliament forced her to move it.
Okay, so spell out precisely, in primary legislative terms, how they did that then
Sorry, but I really cannot be bothered to go back over the entire complicated process. This is a stupid argument anyway. If you think parliament can't stop no deal then good for you. Maybe you will be proved right. We will find out soon enough.

ETA: If push comes to shove and there is no way to force an extension, I think anti-no-deal tories will bring down the government. Johnson isn't even going to try to go down that path. He will call an election. Jump instead of waiting to be pushed. Better optics.

So, I will take it from that you are indeed unable to show how, in primary legislative terms, May was forced to extend the date of departure. And we both know why you are unable to. It's because she wasn't.

All of the force exerted on May was political and that is assuming she was not complicit in any event. However, for the sake of argument, assuming she was not complicit, that political force took the form of an implied threat of bringing her government down or of Parliament overtly voting to revoke A50 if she did not comply. In other words, one of the only two ways I have already explained in which Brexit can be stopped.

So, the next question is will Johnson succumb to that same implied threat. I believe the answer is no for two reasons.

Firstly, he has correctly identified that this is an existential issue for the Tories and if Brexit is thwarted, they are finished. So, from Johnson's perspective, there is nothing to lose by calling Parliament's bluff.

Secondly, while Parliament has, for the last three years, aided and abetted by a compliant MSM, attempted to wear down the Leave contingent in the electorate on the basis that, at some point, they would be able to enact the final democratic treachery of revoking A50 or, at the very least, implementing a Brino, they have failed in that endeavor. Utterly.

As a consequence of that failure, as amply demonstrated in the EU election results, MPs minds are now becoming considerably more focused on their own potential imminent demise than they have hitherto been for the last three years. Therefore, there is every reason to suspect that, when push comes to shove, they will not vote for their own extinction - which would likely lead to Brexit anyway.

Oh, they will skawk and they will splutter to be sure.

But, they will not commit suicide. They are far too venal and self serving for that.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 20 Jun 2019, 23:19

We will see.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 21 Jun 2019, 07:13

Agree LJ.

Eurointeligence recent analysis said the same re parliament and the myth that they stioped no deal.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 21 Jun 2019, 12:04

Eurointeligence latest...

No appetite for extension

The biggest misconception among commentators in the UK is that the EU will in the end agree to a Brexit extension. The EU surely does not want to be blamed for a hard Brexit. But we ask: blamed by whom? Leo Varadkar did a really good job yesterday to instil at least some doubt into this complacent attitude. He said the mood in the Council was shifting against an extension - a judgement we can confirm. There is no unanimity on this point, but unanimity is not required. Any member can veto an extension. We are not saying that anyone will do this. Emmanuel Macron and Pedro SÃ¡nchez are not threatening a veto. But they are winning the argument.

Also consider that EU leaders do not really care whether UK newspapers blame them for a hard Brexit. What matters to them is whether their own electorates will. Why on Earth should they do this? It was the UK that triggered Art. 50. It was the House of Commons that failed to ratify the withdrawal agreement. We yield to no one in our criticism of the EU and its policies. But not even we would go the extreme of blaming the EU for a no-deal Brexit.Â

We think the notion of an automatic Brexit extension is probably the biggest Brexit delusion of all. Another delusion is the presumption that Boris Johnson will necessarily ask for one. And that parliament can stop a no-deal Brexit - short of revocation or legislating for a second referendum.Â

Here is the universe of Brexit choice the next PM will confront:

elections before end-October;elections after end-October, either in December or in 2020;second referendum;no-deal Brexit without elections;unilateral revocation by the House of Commons;ratification of the existing withdrawal agreement with a new political declaration;a negotiated change in the withdrawal agreement, back to the original version of a Northern Ireland-only backstop.

We are excluding all the unicorn options from this list - like the fabled Malthouse compromise. If we go through the list from the perspective of Boris Johnson as prime minister, an early Brexit-delivery election appears the best out of a series of risky options. If he were to present a withdrawal deal to the UK parliament, there is a good chance they would reject it once again, given the narrow majorities. He would end up at exactly the same point where Theresa May ended up. A second referendum would have the same political effect.Â

We are aware, of course, that a newly-appointed prime minister does not want to go down as the PM with the shortest term of office in history. Early elections are risky. But there are no good alternatives. Johnson has a reasonable chance of winning an election on a platform to commit to Brexit before October - or at year-end perhaps - deal or no deal. This is the only scenario in which the Tories could come out of thisÂ with their head not just held high, but still attached to their bodies. In all other scenarios they face extinction at the hands of Nigel Farage. The point is not whether Farage could win an election outright. This is theoretically possible but unlikely. But his potential to damage the Tories is massive. The national election polls currently showing Farage in the lead really have an impact on the views of Tory MPs.

Johnson yesterday predictably won the first leg of the leadership race, and even managed to get his favourite opponent, Jeremy Hunt, in the final run-off. The colourless Hunt stands no chance. His position on Brexit is all over the place. And remember that, whenever Tory politicians go on hustings in the shires, they discover that Brexit is the only issue that matters.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 21 Jun 2019, 12:32

Mark Field suspended from party after being filmed making an unprovoked assault on a woman. Police investigating.

Another Tory MP recalled to a by-election after being convicted of fraud. Latest yougov poll has LD making gains, leading to a 5 way split of seats, with no 2 party coalition possible.

GDP growth forecast downgraded to zero.

Will Johnson be brave enough to call an election before a no confidence vote?

ps Looks like my charity sector job is on the line again as both government money and public donations dry up.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Jun 2019, 13:06

No it wasn't an an "unprovoked attack"., What a load of old bollocks. She wasn't injured, she and others were trespassing and, given recent events on the streets, if they were frog-marched out while being held by the neck, so what?

Post by **adam2** » 21 Jun 2019, 13:37

Little John wrote:No it wasn't an an "unprovoked attack"., What a load of old bollocks. She wasn't injured, she and others were trespassing and, given recent events on the streets, if they were frog-marched out while being held by the neck, so what?

I agree.
Whilst I have some sympathy with the views of Greenpeace, it must be accepted that gatecrashing a high profile event carries certain risks, including being manhandled.
AFAIK the law permits of "reasonable force" being used to remove intruders, the force used looked reasonable to me.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 21 Jun 2019, 14:36

I wrote assault not attack. Please do not miss-quote me. Assault does not need to cause injury to be an offence.

I guess it comes down to the definition of reasonable force when the woman was given no chance to leave peacefully.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 21 Jun 2019, 17:48

He did nothing wrong.

Would have been wiser to call security but that's that.