Brexit process
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- UndercoverElephant
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It's on the front of tomorrow's Times. It's real. First time since polling began in the 1940s that a Westminster poll hasn't had either the tories or labour in the first two.Little John wrote:Lib Dems in the lead?
F--k me
Bullshit
Just imagine a general election on those figures. Total chaos. This may well break FPTP. We could end up with a BRX-LDWEM coalition to enact electoral reform, immediately followed by another general election.
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So, what happened to Labour's clever little triangulations leading them to walk into N10 then?UndercoverElephant wrote:It's on the front of tomorrow's Times. It's real. First time since polling began in the 1940s that a Westminster poll hasn't had either the tories or labour in the first two.Little John wrote:Lib Dems in the lead?
F--k me
Bullshit
Just imagine a general election on those figures. Total chaos. This may well break FPTP. We could end up with a BRX-LDWEM coalition to enact electoral reform, immediately followed by another general election.
If the above figure are true, then I would lay money the only one between now and the next GE with significant growth left in them is the Brexit party's
This is what happens when you F--k with democracy.
- UndercoverElephant
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On these stats, Corbyn would probably still end up as Prime Minister. Although I suspect it would force Labour to accept electoral reform, which certainly isn't what Corbyn wants.Little John wrote:]So, what happened to Labour's clever little triangulations leading them to walk into N10 then?
From my perspective, this is even better. It kills off the tory party for good, rather than just a couple of electoral cycles. I'm anti-tory more than I am pro-labour.
Labour's position still can't and won't change, because they need to hang on to their core socialist vote post-Brexit. They have to wait to see who the tories elect as new leader before they can adopt any new policy.
I'd say it is now very hard to predict anything at all. Polls themselves can change political opinions, and elections certainly do. I think this is what has happened here - its a reaction to the local and EU elections, with a load of extra people abandoning the main parties for brexit reasons. But it is entirely possible that neither Labour nor the tories will ever get a comfortable majority again.If the above figure are true, then I would lay money the only one between now and the next GE with significant growth left in them is the Brexit party's
This is what happens when you F--k with democracy.
- UndercoverElephant
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You still don't get it. Or, at least, to the extent you do, it is being dragged out of you.UndercoverElephant wrote:On these stats, Corbyn would probably still end up as Prime Minister. Although I suspect it would force Labour to accept electoral reform, which certainly isn't what Corbyn wants.Little John wrote:]So, what happened to Labour's clever little triangulations leading them to walk into N10 then?
From my perspective, this is even better. It kills off the tory party for good, rather than just a couple of electoral cycles. I'm anti-tory more than I am pro-labour.
Labour's position still can't and won't change, because they need to hang on to their core socialist vote post-Brexit. They have to wait to see who the tories elect as new leader before they can adopt any new policy.
I'd say it is now very hard to predict anything at all. Polls themselves can change political opinions, and elections certainly do. I think this is what has happened here - its a reaction to the local and EU elections, with a load of extra people abandoning the main parties for brexit reasons. But it is entirely possible that neither Labour nor the tories will ever get a comfortable majority again.If the above figure are true, then I would lay money the only one between now and the next GE with significant growth left in them is the Brexit party's
This is what happens when you F--k with democracy.
It seems every one has their line. That line informs us how far their understanding or, rather, acknowledgment of what is coming and what is going extends and where it hits the buffers of an entrenched world view.
So, with the likes of Biff Vernon, to take one example, he was unable to countenance any change from the way things had been and they way he expected them to continue, albeit with some nice little "civilizing" tweaks around the edges. For all of his protestations of being a radical Green with all that entails, he was fundamentally a bourgeois reactionary.
Similarly, we seem to have found your line.
Where, for all of your apparent understanding of the radical changes that are coming, when push has properly started to come to shove you have spent the last several weeks and months progressively revealing that your conception of politics is that somehow that it was all going to keep on trucking along with the same old dichotomies and that the existing political class would have their way because this is the way of things as it always has been.
I've got news for you.
That world is over.
It's dead.
This is only the beginning of God knows what and only a fool would predict where it will end.
- UndercoverElephant
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No idea what you are going on about, Steve. What is it that you think I don't get? I have at no point said or implied that "somehow that it was all going to keep on trucking along with the same old dichotomies and that the existing political class would have their way because this is the way of things as it always has been. "
The problem isn't what I have actually been saying, but what you've been reading into it that isn't there. I am well aware that civilisation is going to collapse, and that as it does so our political system will collapse. This does not change the fact that the tories (along with the private school system) are the glue that sticks our class system together. That would be true regardless of peak oil and collapse, and it is entirely legitimate for me to cheer the end of tory domination of politics.
You seem to have confused with me with a Corbynite who thinks Labour can save the world. I've never been that.
EDIT: I am guessing your post is actually a reaction to my insistence that Labour should not change its policy on brexit? If so, your post is still inappropriate. My point on that is very simple: Labour was created to defend and promote the rights of the working class, and they are still needed to do that regardless of brexit and regardless of collapse. Until there is no longer a class system, there will be a need for a labour party. All Labour should/can do right now is try to hold its core together so there is something left to build on once this whole brexit saga is over, however it ends.
The problem isn't what I have actually been saying, but what you've been reading into it that isn't there. I am well aware that civilisation is going to collapse, and that as it does so our political system will collapse. This does not change the fact that the tories (along with the private school system) are the glue that sticks our class system together. That would be true regardless of peak oil and collapse, and it is entirely legitimate for me to cheer the end of tory domination of politics.
You seem to have confused with me with a Corbynite who thinks Labour can save the world. I've never been that.
EDIT: I am guessing your post is actually a reaction to my insistence that Labour should not change its policy on brexit? If so, your post is still inappropriate. My point on that is very simple: Labour was created to defend and promote the rights of the working class, and they are still needed to do that regardless of brexit and regardless of collapse. Until there is no longer a class system, there will be a need for a labour party. All Labour should/can do right now is try to hold its core together so there is something left to build on once this whole brexit saga is over, however it ends.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 31 May 2019, 09:14, edited 1 time in total.
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If we get a no deal Brexit by default in October those voting figures could well change. Also Farage might leave the scene again once Brexit is achieved. He would have got what he wanted although he would always be there if a future government looked like rejoining the EU.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
You've said far more than that.UndercoverElephant wrote:No idea what you are going on about, Steve. What is it that you think I don't get? I have at no point said or implied that "somehow that it was all going to keep on trucking along with the same old dichotomies and that the existing political class would have their way because this is the way of things as it always has been. "
The problem isn't what I have actually been saying, but what you've been reading into it that isn't there. I am well aware that civilisation is going to collapse, and that as it does so our political system will collapse. This does not change the fact that the tories (along with the private school system) are the glue that sticks our class system together. That would be true regardless of peak oil and collapse, and it is entirely legitimate for me to cheer the end of tory domination of politics.
You seem to have confused with me with a Corbynite who thinks Labour can save the world. I've never been that.
EDIT: I am guessing your post is actually a reaction to my insistence that Labour should not change its policy on brexit? If so, your post is still inappropriate. My point on that is very simple: Labour was created to defend and promote the rights of the working class, and they are still needed to do that regardless of brexit and regardless of collapse. Until there is no longer a class system, there will be a need for a labour party. All Labour should/can do right now is try to hold its core together so there is something left to build on once this whole brexit saga is over, however it ends.
You have repeatedly stated, in terms: that
(a) Brexit is dead
(b) Labour would easily form the next government
You have never been in a position to say either of this things with any degree of confidence. Which means the only reason for stating them is because they are founded on an entrenched world view that has been unwilling or unable, when push has comet to shove, to countenance its replacement.
- UndercoverElephant
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And as things stand, Labour are still predicted to be the largest party in a hung parliament, even if they come 3rd in the popular vote (by a close margin). What I have actually said is that Labour has had no choice but to sit on the brexit fence, and until now any other action would have left them in a worse position. I stand by that for now, and stress that it may well change depending on who becomes the new tory leader.Little John wrote:You've said far more than that.UndercoverElephant wrote:No idea what you are going on about, Steve. What is it that you think I don't get? I have at no point said or implied that "somehow that it was all going to keep on trucking along with the same old dichotomies and that the existing political class would have their way because this is the way of things as it always has been. "
The problem isn't what I have actually been saying, but what you've been reading into it that isn't there. I am well aware that civilisation is going to collapse, and that as it does so our political system will collapse. This does not change the fact that the tories (along with the private school system) are the glue that sticks our class system together. That would be true regardless of peak oil and collapse, and it is entirely legitimate for me to cheer the end of tory domination of politics.
You seem to have confused with me with a Corbynite who thinks Labour can save the world. I've never been that.
EDIT: I am guessing your post is actually a reaction to my insistence that Labour should not change its policy on brexit? If so, your post is still inappropriate. My point on that is very simple: Labour was created to defend and promote the rights of the working class, and they are still needed to do that regardless of brexit and regardless of collapse. Until there is no longer a class system, there will be a need for a labour party. All Labour should/can do right now is try to hold its core together so there is something left to build on once this whole brexit saga is over, however it ends.
You have repeatedly stated, in terms: that
(a) Brexit is dead
(b) Labour would easily form the next government
I also still believe brexit is dead, although it is not impossible that a general election or no deal vs remain referendum could produce a result that delivers a no deal. I just think it is highly unlikely.
We'll see about that. I have made some predictions. If they are right they are right, and if they are wrong they are wrong.You have never been in a position to say either of this things with any degree of confidence. Which means the only reason for stating them is because they are founded on an entrenched world view that has been unwilling or unable, when push has comet to shove, to countenance its replacement.
I'll make another one now: the next Prime Minister is going to be Michael Gove, and he'll steer the tories away from no deal.
- UndercoverElephant
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I think the two party system and first past the post are both now doomed, so even if the tory party survives, it won't be able to play the same role. I think this is actually bigger than brexit - it is the latest stage in a series of reforms including Magna Carta, the transfer of sovereignty to parliament from the monarchy, the Reform act that got rid of the rotten boroughs, and universal suffrage. I think the whole era of tory domination of british politics may be ending.Little John wrote:If the Tories put up Gove as Leader, they are finished. They're probably finished anyway. But, to any extent they stand an outside chance of merely surviving the next GE, it will be with Johnson.
No. the whole era of large, "centrist" governance is over. This includes, here in the UK, both Labour and the Tories. Being only ever two cheeks of the same arse. There will still be Left and Right, Radical and Conservative and Authoritarian and Liberal . But, these perennial forms will need to be reborn from the ashes of the current political class.
- UndercoverElephant
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Nope, we are not looking at a continuation of two-party politics but with more extreme differences. That is absolutely not what is happening.Little John wrote:No. the whole era of large, "centrist" governance is over.
The centre of the brexit debate might have gone, but that is not true in a wider sense, or the libdems wouldn't be surging.