Brexit process

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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:You think it is hilarious that democracy is being trashed?
It was a joke anyway. With a bit of luck, this process is going to trash both the two-party system and the tory party. Result.

And anyway...there is nothing left now but a straight fight between no deal and remain, either via a general election or second referendum. That is democracy.
You still think Labour are going to enter N10 at the end of all of this unscathed and able to govern?
Unscathed? No. Able to govern? Yes.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

A general election and a second referendum would be ideal, giving the electorate 2 chances to express its current views, and a means to separate the single issue of brexit from national issues.

The EU election gave no clear indication of the public mood on brexit, only half the people who voted in the referendum voted in the EU election. Only the more engaged in brexit voted, leading to a swing to both pro and anti brexit parties, although the Nigel Farage party only increased his share by a few percent.

The latest uk opinion poll shows both LD and greens getting a boost from their EU results, and Brexit up to 18%, which is enough to cut deep into the disaffected Tory heartlands. The resulting map shows a country deeply divided and regionalised, Scotland is SNP, the southwest LD, London and the major industrial areas Labour, weathly rural England Tory and poorer rural England (narrowly) Brexit.

Small swings between the 4 (non regional) parties will have a big impact on the next election, as the FPTP system will exaggerate the percentages of between 17% and 21% each. The end result will inevitably require a coalition government, but it is hard to see any of the current party systems being prepared to make the necessary compromises.

Being a huge block of 50+ MPs on 4% of the votes, the SNP will hold a huge amount of power, more than the DUP does at the moment.

The future of UK politics is changing, which is why both Tories and Labour are desperate to prevent the electorate from having a say for as long as possible.
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Post by fuzzy »

I thought we had an election last week that separated EU from other UK politics? What was the result again?
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Superb analysis from eurointeligence...
Untangling the confusion about a no-deal Brexit

In this note we explain in detail why we think the risk of a no-deal Brexit is much larger than most commentators and financial-market actors believe. Over the last couple of days we noted a series of misleading comments from journalists and politicians, who are either ignorant about the legal procedures - Article 50 and the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act - or obfuscating. The key issue will be how these procedures will interact with the politics. 

We can never emphasise enough that the reason why the UK did not leave the EU without a deal on March 31 was Theresa May's reluctance. It was not the House of Commons. The role of the prime minister will remain critical because of the way Article 50 has framed the withdrawal process. A no-deal Brexit cannot be stopped by parliament except through ratification of a withdrawal treaty or outright Brexit revocation. The UK parliament has rejected both, which is why no-deal remains the default position, not only theoretically, but actually.

What about a vote of confidence? Under the FTPA, the leader of the opposition can call a vote of no confidence. If successful, that would trigger either a general election or the election of another prime minister. The latter is perhaps the Remainers' best hope. MPs could, for example, vote in favour of Dominic Grieve as prime minister with a limited mandate to ask the European Council for an extension, and to legislate for a second referendum or else trigger the FTPA provisions for an election. That would require an astonishing degree of self-sacrifice by Jeremy Corbyn.

If that doesn't happen - and we don't think it will - the no-confidence procedure is likely to be self-defeating. Any Tory MPs who vote against their own party leader will be deselected. The eleven MPs from Change UK would also lose their seats. Their best hope would be to merge with the LibDems, but it is not clear that this will happen, or that it will happen in time.

And then consider the FTPA timetable. The new Tory leader will be in place by mid/late July. The UK parliament will be in recess from 20 July until 5 September. When MPs come back from the holidays, it could be already too late. 

If, say, they vote on a confidence motion on September 10 and the motion passes, there would be a period of 14 days until parliament is dissolved and new elections are called. In that period the prime minister remains in office, but parliament is dissolved. The Tory party conference will take place from Sep 29-Oct 2 and would coincide with the beginning of the general election campaign. The newly elected prime minister would come under massive pressure by the conference to deliver Brexit on time. And if he or she believed that a no-deal Brexit would be less suicidal than asking for an extension, there is nothing parliament could do because it would already have been dissolved. 

So, when considering the question of a no-deal Brexit, we have to look at how the procedural timings and the politics are likely to interact. The key variable in all of this is who the next prime minister will be, and how determined they will be to accept no-deal. If they hesitate like Theresa May, Brexit will be dragged out. If they want a no-deal Brexit, they can have it.

We would also urge caution against false security from opinion polls. We noted a poll yesterday in which Labour, Conservatives, Brexit Party and LibDems are all around 20% - a mind-boggling combination in a first-past-the-post electoral system. What will be decisive in the upcoming general election is not the absolute number of Brexit vs Remain voters, but the marginal distribution across seats and the willingness of the various camps to co-operate. Only a fool would extrapolate from the European election results, and conclude that the Tories must at all costs avoid an election this year. 

We agree with the pollster John Curtice that delivering on Brexit is the singular key variable for Tory success of failure. If they deliver Brexit, we would not rule out that their support will surge. The certain road to perdition for the Tories is to agree another long Brexit extension, and for the Brexit Party to develop an effective national network of candidates in time for the regularly-scheduled elections in 2022. 
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

fuzzy wrote:I thought we had an election last week that separated EU from other UK politics? What was the result again?
The Nigel Farage party increased their share of the vote by 3%. Tories and Labour lost heavily, LD made big gains, and greens small ones.

Only 36% of the electorate voted

Edit - the Nigel Farage increased by 4% over 2014, and turnout was 38%?
Last edited by PS_RalphW on 29 May 2019, 12:54, edited 1 time in total.
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

Not ideal at all. It was a simple referendum question: leave? remain?

The votes were in favour of leave, and this is what was promised by the two-faced politicians who have been trying to scupper the decision ever since. Of course, the remain voters are super intelligent and worldly wise, while the leave voters are stupid and narrow minded.

The result of the referendum ballot was ............LEAVE!!

If the decision was a mistake, tough, we all make mistakes, and seem to be able to live with them.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
Little John

Post by Little John »

PS_RalphW wrote:. The EU election gave no clear indication of the public mood on brexit, only half the people who voted in the referendum voted in the EU election. Only the more engaged in brexit voted, leading to a swing to both pro and anti brexit parties, although the Nigel Farage party only increased his share by a few percent.
Complete and utter bullshit. As usual.

Image

Disingenuous Remainers like yourself, aided and abetted by a lying, bullshitting MSM are, laughably, trying to make out that Conservative and Labour votes were for Remain because only that way can you even remotely attempt to make the truly reality defying claim that the result "was not clear".

Okay, to take the claim about Conservative votes first:

Utter cock-walloping bullshit....

There... that's all that needs to be said about the Conservative vote claim.

On now to the claim about Labour votes:

Arguably, we may reasonably assume that at least half of the voters of Labour in the Euro elections were Leave voters who were still daft enough to believe that what Labour has been proposing is still Leave. Clearly, the above must be true since Labour were trying to make out precisely that all the way up to the Euro elections. That being the case, even if we re-apportion Labour's votes, 1/2 and 1/2 to the Remain and Leave groupings, Leave still wins by a comfortable margin.

However, for the sake of argument, let's go the whole hog and remove Labour's votes out of the Leave/Remain equation altogether. Guess what, Leave still wins. Albeit by a much reduced margin.

There is no amount of spin that can be placed on the above results that even remotely allows for an assumption that Remain won the largest share of the votes.

Anyone who does claim the above is either a moron, a hypocrite or a liar.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

I knew you would swear at me John.

There is no absolute way of knowing what proportion of each party's voters (except three) would vote leave or remain in a referendum tomorrow. Existing party loyalties remain for all the established parties , and for some the question of brexit counts for less than other issues.

An analysis I read in the guardian gave very different numbers to yours.

The fact that only half the people who voted in the referendum bothered to vote in the EU elections, suggest that a lot of people did not see the EU election as a proxy referendum at all.

All I am saying, is that the result is overall very similar to the 2014 EU election, that there hasn't been a massive swing to anybody.
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

There is so much wish fulfillment and perception bias around this so to make much speculation pretty meaningless.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Potemkin Villager wrote:There is so much wish fulfillment and perception bias around this so to make much speculation pretty meaningless.
Yep, and it appears to be getting worse. The number of people on social media currently claiming that the EU election results mean a "confirmatory referendum" or "people's vote" is "inevitable now", is mind-boggling. Most of them also appear to believe that this inevitable referendum cannot possibly have no deal as an option.

Even the tory leadership hopefuls are all still talking bollocks. At some point, sooner rather than later, reality is going to have to start sinking in.
Little John

Post by Little John »

PS_RalphW wrote:I knew you would swear at me John.

There is no absolute way of knowing what proportion of each party's voters (except three) would vote leave or remain in a referendum tomorrow. Existing party loyalties remain for all the established parties , and for some the question of brexit counts for less than other issues.

An analysis I read in the guardian gave very different numbers to yours.

The fact that only half the people who voted in the referendum bothered to vote in the EU elections, suggest that a lot of people did not see the EU election as a proxy referendum at all.

All I am saying, is that the result is overall very similar to the 2014 EU election, that there hasn't been a massive swing to anybody.
What are you talking about "different numbers"?

The numbers I have given are the official published vote shares, and the position of the parties I have given are explicitly based on their manifestos and official public pronouncements,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Euro ... ed_Kingdom

Oh, and by the way, there does not need to be a massive swing to anybody because we already had the debate and the decision has already been democratically arrived at.

Leave won.

But, as it happen, the results of the EU election do provide an indirect index of the fact that the number of people wishing to leave the EU has, at the very least, not decreased and, more likely has increased.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... arty-surge

Can you smell the fear of our political establishment?
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Yougov poll puts Lidbdems in the lead:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 37581.html

Projected results if this actually happened in a general election:

Image
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Another projection of how this turns into seats. The pollster's models are broken:

https://www.businessinsider.com/yougov- ... ?r=US&IR=T
If repeated at a general election, it would result in a hung parliament with no single party able to form a government.

Despite being in fourth place, Labour would be expected to win 202 seats with the Liberal Democrats on 119 seats and the Conservatives on 110, according to the Electoral Calculus website.
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Post by woodburner »

No wonder the “negotiations� are so ineffective

https://youtu.be/L0iIY_R65Qg
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
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