Brexit process

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 27 May 2019, 19:42

Corbyn backs second referendum:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22bQURK ... e=youtu.be

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 27 May 2019, 19:46

UE - the media are NOT deeply divided. Most members of our media class are Remainers and it is reflected in the coverage.

LJ - the breakdown of how the Brexit Party would do at a ge is fascniating. Of course, should the Tories adopt a hard Brexit plan then those figures would change, but less us assume that either a anti-no deal Brexit candidate wins or whoever wins bottles no deal no 31st October.

In either of the above scenarios, the Tory support will collapse as I have described in my blog with only a residual Remain Tories staying with the party.

The majority of the electorate will shift to the Brexit Party, giving the BP the kind of polling it has received in the European elections.

We are talking about a Brexit Party landslide.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 27 May 2019, 19:53

UndercoverElephant wrote:Corbyn backs second referendum:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22bQURK ... e=youtu.be

Of course he does. He has capitulated on every single issue to both the Remainers and Blairites - which are, let's be honest, not far off being the same people - since the very beginning.

Why should he change his pattern of behaviour now.

Labour is dead

But, then, so are the Tories. Or, at least, there is at least a slight possibility that their more venal drive to survive may yet cause them back away from bringing a Brexiteer leader down with a VoNC and go for WTO Brexit. But, there really is no way of knowing in these funny old times we live in.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 27 May 2019, 21:51

If I were Boris I would:

- have a sense of history. And want to be remembered as someone who achieved something. Rather than another Theresa May (was all that scheming really worth it?).
- go all-in on Brexit. In speech and deed, only concentrate on achieving brexit.
- be ruthless in achieving this. This is all that matters.
- from the start, publicly include the Brexit Party. (this will help re-unification in the future).
- dont give a frack what the fallout will be afterwards. Brexit is all-important. Who cares if the Government subsequently falls. Or remainers suffer collective spontaneous human combustion.

Boris Johnson - the father of brexit.

- privately, start a rumour that I would defect to the Brexit Party if I wasnt elected leader. Possibly, actually defect if I dont become leader.

---

Jeremy Corbyn shouldnt have compromised on the tie! This was his first step on the slippery slope.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 27 May 2019, 22:05

UndercoverElephant wrote:
The truth is that the whole country is split down the middle, and the mechanics of the brexit conundrum means there is no way out of the deadlock.

A conundrum within an enigma wrapped up in a lot of wishful thinking on both sides. Whatever way you slice and dice it though there is a not so small consolation that the tories are fecked. At the risk of repeating myself, whatever the outcome, nobody will be happy. Ho hum at least it's not Armageddon (yet).

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 27 May 2019, 22:42

For Remainers struggling with their maths, here is a handy breakdown of the share of votes in the UK EU Elections:

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 May 2019, 09:34

UndercoverElephant wrote: ....So that is how this ends: in a no deal vs remain election. If the tory+BXP+DUP gets a majority then the brexit process ends with no deal. If Lab+LD+SNP+PC+GRN get a majority then it ends with a revocation of article 50.

I thought you said Brexit was "dead" and no deal was "dead".

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 May 2019, 11:04

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: ....So that is how this ends: in a no deal vs remain election. If the tory+BXP+DUP gets a majority then the brexit process ends with no deal. If Lab+LD+SNP+PC+GRN get a majority then it ends with a revocation of article 50.
I thought you said Brexit was "dead" and no deal was "dead".

I think the tories+BXP will lose that election.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 May 2019, 12:43

I take you have seen the vote share breakdown I posted above?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 May 2019, 15:25

Little John wrote:I take you have seen the vote share breakdown I posted above?

I don't think it means much. It is very hard to tell from that EU election how people would vote in a general election, especially since we don't even know what the tory and labour policies would be.

The next tory leader could be anybody on the brexit scale from Raab to Stewart. Too many unknowns.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 May 2019, 18:50

rightho....

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 28 May 2019, 20:05

Out of interest LJ what's the overall mood in your area re Brexit and specifically labour party?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 May 2019, 20:15

This is the North East Coast.

This area has been, for as long as I can remember and know about, dyed in the wool Labour to its core.

As things stand, however, Labour is dead here. The sense of betrayal is palpable. Labour has have not been temporarily punished. It is dead. I wouldn't dare set foot round here right now if I was Labour campaigner.

This area is, it hardly needs saying, more or less 100% pro leave.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 29 May 2019, 01:08

Well, this is hilarious. All of the tory leadership hopefuls are either promising no deal, a renegotiated deal, or at least one out of those two. But...

Bercow announces that parliament will get a chance to block no deal: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48437596

And Juncker announces that there will be no new deal: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... reddit.com

So neither is deliverable by this parliament, regardless who the tories elect. Parliament can, and so will, stop no deal (and the EU will extend). And the EU can, and will, refuse to reopen the WA.

Which means it is very nearly game over, for both the tories and brexit. The only way to deliver brexit now is to call a general election with a tory-BXP pact and hope to get a majority of MPs willing to do a no deal.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 29 May 2019, 05:10

You think it is hilarious that democracy is being trashed?

You still think Labour are going to enter N10 at the end of all of this unscathed and able to govern?