Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

Your "analysis" sounds just like the kind of "analysis" put up by the Democratic party talking heads in 2016.

Carry on

We'll have to wait and see, won't we. What we currently know is that the Brexit Party are going to win big on Thursday, the LDs and greens will make gains, Labour will tread water or lose a bit, and the tories will be minced.

But then what? Does May finally go? Something tells me she still won't. Labour may yet be forced to change its policy on brexit as a damage limitation exercise, but I don't see them doing so until May has gone and they know who is going to replace her.

I thought you said Brexit was "dead"?

Does something in my post suggest it isn't?

[UndercoverElephant]

He was found wanting and, indeed, now looks like a man who no longer wants the job.

Whatever else is true, in political terms, Corbyn is now a dead man walking. It's over.

Yes, I agree with this. However... There's still a fair chance he'll become PM! Shows how f***ed up our politics is.

If there is a fair chance he will become PM then he is not a dead man walking. Politics is changing. Winning the game is now just being the biggest party, not getting an overall majority.

[Little John]

This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4SYPcS ... ture=share

[UndercoverElephant]

This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4SYPcS ... ture=share

Only watched the first five minutes. I have to say again: this is not really about Labour. The Labour leadership never wanted to stop brexit, and still doesn't. What they've done is prioritise trying to force and win a general election. Meanwhile a large chunk of Labour MPs never really accepted the result of the referendum and would be happy to see it stopped, especially those whose seats heavily voted for remain.

But that is a side issue. The main point was made in the first two minutes: Theresa May negotiated a deal so bad that almost nobody believes it to be acceptable, and that has completely f***ed up brexit. The EU didn't want the UK to leave, or failing that wanted to punish the UK if it did leave, so it never intended to offer the UK anything but a bad deal. And May kept saying that no deal is better than a bad deal while her actions made clear that she had, in reality, ruled out no deal. Which means the UK is left with a choice between a no deal brexit that parliament can legitimately claim it has to prevent (for a whole bunch or reasons, whether or not you agree with them), a withdrawal deal so bad that nobody in their right mind would accept, or cancelling brexit.

Which all adds up to a very serious constitutional crisis.

I am now tending towards the opinion that this is eventually going to turn into a crisis of the same seriousness engulfing the whole EU. There is going to have to be an election, the result will be a very deeply hung parliament, maybe with 30 or 40 seats going to the Brexit Party. Labour will be the biggest party but well short of a majority, the LDs and/or SNP will demand a second referendum as the price of power, Labour will accept and remain will win. But that cannot and will not be the end of it, because after next week the European Parliament is going to be stuffed full of euroskeptic MEPs from about 20 other countries, along with about 30 English and Welsh Brexit Party MEPs. Ultimately we will end up with a situation where the EU is forced to choose between ongoing instability and chaos posing an existential threat to the EU itself, or accept that major reform is going to be required (including a rewrite of the Lisbon Treaty), or finally offer the UK an exit and future relationship deal which is politically realistic. In fact, it may even turn out that the EU can now see this coming, and makes some sort of attempt to prevent it before it happens, but we need a general election first. They might offer something new to a different government, but they can't negotiate with the tories any more.

Juncker and Barnier will eventually be held partly responsible for creating this mess, along with their remainer cheerleaders. They thought it was a clever move to try to punish the UK for leaving, and May's ineptitude made that very easy for them. There will indeed be consequences.

[Lord Beria3]

https://eqr.berenberg.de/showdoc/ial/49 ... tid=174781

BB take on the Brexit crisis... bullish as always about a prospect of a semi soft Brexit.

My gut feeling remains the same... we're heading towards a hard Brexit.

UE even if Corbyn agreed to a 2nd referendum what makes you think it would get through parliament. Only needs 30 odd labour mps to vote against, with the Tories and the Brexit party and it would fail.

As always you are being too complacent and confident about the position of labour going forward.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

May's last throw of the dice - a meaningful vote on June 4 or 5

Another meaningful vote has been called - and it does not even make the top slot in most of the media. There are clear signs of Brexit fatigue but we should not underestimate the importance of Theresa May's decision yesterday, to hold a formal vote on the second reading of the withdrawal bill in the first week of June, either on June 4 or 5. This has to be the final throw of the die. If the vote is lost, the bill cannot be reintroduced in the current session of parliament. May would have to go.

She will meet the backbench 1922 committee this Thursday, where she will come under pressure to set a date for her departure. After yesterday's decision, choices for a departure announcement narrow down to either immediately after the vote is lost, or a little later. In any case, the real deadline is the Tory party conference in the autumn. We see no chance that she can address the conference as leader.

If the House votes yes, the UK parliament would then try to get the legislation passed by the end of the parliamentary session - likely to be pushed back to late July. Brexit would then take effect on August 1st. 

May announced her decision in a meeting with Jeremy Corbyn last night. She said the vote would be held with or without Labour's support. 

The negotiations with Labour are ongoing. We remain cautiously pessimistic. We continue to see that both May and Corbyn have an incentive to strike a deal. A victory by the Brexit party - even if perfectly forecast by the current polls - will still come as a massive shock to both Labour and the Tories. We would not rule out the leadership of both parties concluding that, for better or worse, they need to deliver some version of Brexit to save their own skins.

But we also see that Corbyn faces one insurmountable hurdle: there is no way they can Boris-proof a deal. Boris Johnson already said he would not respect a custom-union deal. We do not believe that it can be legally anchored into the withdrawal treaty. We also note that Olli Robbins was in Brussels yesterday to explore some technical options in this respect. But, even if the EU were to agree to reopen the withdrawal treaty to include a more explicit link to a future customs-union agreement, it cannot preempt the political process in the UK. Any deal on the future relationship will have to be ratified by a future UK parliament as well as by the EU and national parliaments. As a prime minister who lives on borrowed time, May is not in a strong position to strike any deal.

What about binding votes on competing versions of the future relationship? That may be the best way forward in case there is no formal deal with Labour. But parliament would still need to pass a meaningful vote and ratify legislation - with the required majorities.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://eqr.berenberg.de/showdoc/ial/49 ... tid=174781

BB take on the Brexit crisis... bullish as always about a prospect of a semi soft Brexit.

My gut feeling remains the same... we're heading towards a hard Brexit.

UE even if Corbyn agreed to a 2nd referendum what makes you think it would get through parliament. Only needs 30 odd labour mps to vote against, with the Tories and the Brexit party and it would fail.

As always you are being too complacent and confident about the position of labour going forward.

Not sure what "hard brexit" means any more. I know what no deal brexit means, and there's no way this parliament will let it happen. There's only two possible winners of the next general election: Corbyn or Farage and I'd personally be happy to see either of them in Downing Street. My personal nightmare would be Hunt, but I just cannot see how that can happen.

[Little John]

Not sure what a hard Brexit means? You are taking the piss now... right?

No single market

No customs union

No subjugation to the ECJ

Any subsequent deal may be struck. But, if it compromises the above three it is not leaving the EU and is not what was voted for in the EU referendum.

The only way any of the above could be legitimately compromised would be on the basis of not being binding on any future government.

As for this parliament not letting it happen, you may be right. But, I would not be as supremely confident of being right as you appear to be.

Irrespective, if parliament continues in this way, parliamentarians are going to face an electoral rout sooner or later with the probability of sooner rising by the day.

[Lord Beria3]

Looks like May will be going within 6 weeks.

So, who should succeed her. As a Tory supporter I've got the vote. Boris or not is the question?

[UndercoverElephant]

Irrespective, if parliament continues in this way, parliamentarians are going to face an electoral rout sooner or later with the probability of sooner rising by the day.

What does that mean? They can only be replaced by other parliamentarians. The question is which parties they are going to belong to.

[Snail]

Looks like May will be going within 6 weeks.

So, who should succeed her. As a Tory supporter I've got the vote. Boris or not is the question?

When I mentioned his name here years ago I was rather immature with my reversed snobbery, but what about Rory Stewart? A life with interesting experiences, and not afraid to wander the more difficult paths. Tainted by sticking with May, tho. Boris feels like yesterdays news.

[clv101]

Boris feels like yesterdays news.

Yeah, I don't think Boris will get enough support from MPs.

However, looking down the list of hopefuls... hard to be confident in any of them! I think Raab is most likely, followed by Gove.

[Lord Beria3]

We will see.

The European elections will be a car crash for the Tories (and I voted for the Brexit Party today in them) and that will increase the panic within the party.

Polls show that Boris seems the only candidate who can bring back some of the defecting Leave voters although he will certainly put off some Remain Tories as well.

I suspect that given a straight Corbyn versus Johnson choice Remain Tories will in most cases reluctantly vote for Boris.

Lets not forget that in domestic policies Boris isn't that much different to Cameron. Its his backing of Brexit, in particular a hard Brexit, that made him a form of extremist to liberal Britain.

[emordnilap]

Looking from the outside, if you’re thinking of electing again, yet another coven of rich Etonian establishment toffs, then fúck me, things are bad.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think the last two will be two from Gove, Raab and Johnson, with Rory Stewart as a dark horse. Hunt is just too loathed, and the tory MPs won't choose Javid because they will be scared of the membership rejecting him for being an asian/muslim. The rest of the runners are a load of nobodys.

I don't think the tory membership will trust Stewart on brexit. He's been too anti-no-deal. I think if Johnson makes it to the final two, he'll win, and if he doesn't then Raab will win.

Then what? They'll have to threaten the EU with a no deal brexit unless they ditch the backstop, and they'll have to mean it. But if they do that, and the EU doesn't move, then the anti-no-dealers in the tory party will collapse the government and trigger a general election.

There's going to be another extension to hold a GE.