Brexit process

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 13 May 2019, 21:31

Their starting to get scared LJ.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... pse-future

Check out this article in the Remoaner Guardian...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 May 2019, 21:44

F--k me, that was the funniest article I have read in the Guardian for some time. And that's saying something given their puerile output in recent years.

They really are shitting bricks

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 13 May 2019, 21:56

Boris isn't a hard brexiteer, he's a "become pm by any means possible" politician. Hardly someone to be trusted with the top job.

LJ talks about politicians ignoring the people, the only reason Farage et al "listen" to certain parts of the public is because those parts are saying what Farage wants to hear. Brexit will not help these people. The EU have provided far more support for their communities than our government ever has or will, they will have no greater say in the running of the country (bring back democracy as you may call it) than they did before, it's all a joke imo.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 May 2019, 00:36

Lord Beria3 wrote:
If the Tories can bounce back to 35% plus the BP in support

That doesn't work. Under FPTP, if the BP gets 10% it won't win any seats, so can't give the tories any support. As already explained, a tory-BXP deal only works if there is an agreement beforehand not to stand against each other, but the BP won't do this because it and a lot of leavers simply do not trust the tories any more.

The tories cannot deliver brexit, and that means they will have to fight the next election against a Brexit Party which will take at least half their vote. The result will be a hung parliament and a minority labour government which will have no choice but to hold a second referendum as the price of power. Which remain will win.

If that scenario plays out then British politics will be transformed forever. The tory party will have to choose between merging with the Brexit Party and becoming an all-out hard brexit party, or becoming a pro-EU centre-right party that never wins another election under FPTP.

UE - are you panicking yet?!!!

No. As I keep explaining to you, the tories are currently facing an existential crisis and labour are not. At the end of the day, there is a solid rump of labour supporters who accept Labour's brexit position and/or prioritise a socialist government over brexit. If the Brexit Party actually manages to start taking seats, it will take 5 off the tories for every one it takes off labour.

What I want to see is the tory party destroyed. Why on Earth would I be panicking? This is looking better than 1997.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 May 2019, 03:23

Labour are not facing an existential crisis?

hahahahahahahahaha

F--k me.........

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 May 2019, 08:37

Little John wrote:Labour are not facing an existential crisis?

hahahahahahahahaha

F--k me.........

Sorry to disappoint you, Steve, but that is correct. Labour does not face an existential crisis. That's why it is consistently beating the tories in all polls, and consistently out in the lead in polling for a general election.

There is a core of Labour voters who agree with Labour's brexit position precisely because it is the position which is most likely to put Corbyn in Downing Street. Those people aren't going to stop voting Labour so they can vote for a remain or no deal party, which puts a floor under how far Labour can fall. The tories have no such luxury, and it is now looking possible that the Brexit Party will take enough of their vote to make FPTP start working in their favour. IOW people on the right who previously voted tactically tory to keep Corbyn out will switch to the BP if they think the BP will poll more than the tories. That threat is existential - it is becoming possible that the tories will never govern again.

What on earth do you think Labour should do? Pivot towards no deal? No point in doing that when there's already UKIP and the BP offering that, and the tories under severe pressure to join them. And no point in pivoting the other way either, since the Greens, LibDems and Nats have already claimed that ground.

Labour is in opposition. What are you expecting it to do? What do you want it to do?

If the two-party system falls apart, Labour is best placed to capitalise.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 May 2019, 18:05

Your "analysis" sounds just like the kind of "analysis" put up by the Democratic party talking heads in 2016.

Carry on

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 14 May 2019, 18:09

Agree LJ.

Farage is openly talking about targeting labour's Leave voting northern strongholds at the next election.

They don't know what will hit them!

Post by **clv101** » 14 May 2019, 21:02

Here she goes again:

â€�Laura Kuenssberg
â€�"No 10 confirms they will bring back withdrawal bill back week after MPs recess - same first week of June as Trump here - less clear whether there will be deal with Labour by then that would give the bill a real chance of passing"

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 14 May 2019, 21:11

https://blondemoney.co.uk/2019/05/forget-brexit/

Excellent article on how the UK political landscape is being transformed by the rise of the Brexit Party.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 May 2019, 21:50

Little John wrote:Your "analysis" sounds just like the kind of "analysis" put up by the Democratic party talking heads in 2016.

Carry on

We'll have to wait and see, won't we. What we currently know is that the Brexit Party are going to win big on Thursday, the LDs and greens will make gains, Labour will tread water or lose a bit, and the tories will be minced.

But then what? Does May finally go? Something tells me she still won't. Labour may yet be forced to change its policy on brexit as a damage limitation exercise, but I don't see them doing so until May has gone and they know who is going to replace her.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 May 2019, 21:51

Lord Beria3 wrote: Farage is openly talking about targeting labour's Leave voting northern strongholds at the next election.

Sure. But you can bet he'll actually a choose a seat with a five figure tory majority in East Anglia or Lincolnshire to stand himself, because those are the ones his party are most likely to actually win.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 May 2019, 23:18

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:Your "analysis" sounds just like the kind of "analysis" put up by the Democratic party talking heads in 2016.

Carry on
We'll have to wait and see, won't we. What we currently know is that the Brexit Party are going to win big on Thursday, the LDs and greens will make gains, Labour will tread water or lose a bit, and the tories will be minced.

But then what? Does May finally go? Something tells me she still won't. Labour may yet be forced to change its policy on brexit as a damage limitation exercise, but I don't see them doing so until May has gone and they know who is going to replace her.

I thought you said Brexit was "dead"?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 15 May 2019, 07:30

Corbyn will be hung out to dry by the neo-lib globalists in his own party irrespective.

If Labour convincingly win the Euro and UK elections on a ticket of remain (the former now looking vanishingly unlikely and the latter only barely likely) then Corbyn's socialist vision is effectively dead due to the political class using such wins as "evidence" that the British public have "changed" their mind about leaving the EU, resulting in continued effective EU membership.

If, however, they lose, which is now entirely possible in both elections, the blame will be pinned on Corbyn, he will be replaced with a neo-liberal clone and his socialist vision is dead anyway.

There are moments in history, few to be sure, when action must be taken, not on the basis of a cynical political calculation of the probability of success, but on the basis of what is right.Corbyn lacked the political courage to shit or bust when his moment in history arrived. He was found wanting and, indeed, now looks like a man who no longer wants the job.

Whatever else is true, in political terms, Corbyn is now a dead man walking. It's over.

Post by **clv101** » 15 May 2019, 08:27

Little John wrote:He was found wanting and, indeed, now looks like a man who no longer wants the job.

Whatever else is true, in political terms, Corbyn is now a dead man walking. It's over.

Yes, I agree with this. However... There's still a fair chance he'll become PM! Shows how f***ed up our politics is.