Brexit process

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 May 2019, 19:08

UE - Labour are sinking too. Something you keep on ignoring in your obsession with the Tories.

As LJ has said many times, the Leave vote will bot forgive Labour's two faced treachery on Brexit.

Regarding a hard Brexit, I concur with the view that whilst there may be very short term disruption, things will quickly settle down within weeks. Not sure why there is so much hysteria around the subject.

When SA recently imposed tight economic sanctions on Qatar, a state that imports virtually all of its food, there were warnings of panic and civil unrest. In reality, Qatar adjusted its trading relationships within weeks and is doing absolutely fine.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 May 2019, 19:15

The Conservatives are now only narrowly ahead of the Brexit party when voters are asked who they would vote for at a general election. The Tories are on 22% support, down 4% on a fortnight ago, with the Brexit party on 21% backing. Labour leads on 28%, but is down five points on the last poll.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... bined-poll

Brexit Party at 21% - very impressive stuff.

One wonders if, should Farage party do as well as these polls indicate (and presumably target Leave voting seats where they have a chance of winning under FPTP) that you may see a Tory-Brexit Party coalition after the next ge?

This is something Greer thinks is very possible (and yes, I do take him seriously given he forecast Trump victory in January 2016) - did you Cubes?

A hardline Tory leader working with Farage could deliver a hard Brexit.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 May 2019, 21:32

Lord Beria3 wrote: One wonders if, should Farage party do as well as these polls indicate (and presumably target Leave voting seats where they have a chance of winning under FPTP) that you may see a Tory-Brexit Party coalition after the next ge?

That could only happen if they did a pre-election pact not to stand against each other, which won't happen because Farage would have to be nuts to agree to it. If the tories and Brexit party are standing against each other, it splits the tory vote down the middle.

Labour might be suffering too, but the key question is how far the Labour vote can drop before there is a rump left that cares more about Corbyn's wider agenda and actually getting a Labour government than they do about brexit. If there's a general election with these sorts of figures

Con 22%
Lab 28%
LD 11%
UKIP 4%
GRN 6%
CUK 4%
BXP 21%

Put these into a seat calculator : http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... tedKingdom

The result? Labour gain 40 seats but are still 24 short of a majority. (Lab 302 seats, tories 238. This would put the balance of power into the hands of the SNP, so you can forget brexit.

The brexit party has to get to the high 20s before it starts taking significant amounts of seats. On those figures, it won't win any at all.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 May 2019, 21:40

UndercoverElephant wrote:Latest poll

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 34% (+6)
LAB: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 12% (+5)
CON: 11% (-3)
GRN: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
CHUK: 3% (-4)

OpiniumResearch, 08 May

Hahahahahahahahaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tories are so f*cked. What I want to know is who are the 11% of the electorate still planning to vote for them in these euroelections. Also CHUK on 3% is highly amusing. Not even a flash in the pan. Two weeks ago they were justifying refusing to do a Remain Pact with them because their intention was to "replace them". Mr Ummuna needs to find himself a new career.

Do you have a link?

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 May 2019, 22:01

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... and-labour

On the back of the latest polls both parties are panicking. I'm astonished by the complacency of UE with respect to labour.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 May 2019, 22:33

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Latest poll

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 34% (+6)
LAB: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 12% (+5)
CON: 11% (-3)
GRN: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
CHUK: 3% (-4)

OpiniumResearch, 08 May

Hahahahahahahahaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tories are so f*cked. What I want to know is who are the 11% of the electorate still planning to vote for them in these euroelections. Also CHUK on 3% is highly amusing. Not even a flash in the pan. Two weeks ago they were justifying refusing to do a Remain Pact with them because their intention was to "replace them". Mr Ummuna needs to find himself a new career.
Do you have a link?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... bined-poll

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 May 2019, 22:42

Thanks UE

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 May 2019, 23:09

Watched my first Brexit Party rally... fantastic stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BFO_0R_U0k

The level of energy at these rallies is palpable. Reminds of of the Trump rallies and indeed even Corbyn during the 2017 general election.

Farage is a brillant politician (and he gets in around 35 mins) and the comparison with May is clear. These Brexit Party rallies are happening across the country.

Do not underestimate the potential of Farage's new party.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 12 May 2019, 21:28

Lord Beria3 wrote:This is something Greer thinks is very possible (and yes, I do take him seriously given he forecast Trump victory in January 2016) - did you Cubes?

I've no idea who Greer is tbh, I'm not the one who criticised him either.

I stand by my view for 5 years after a hard/no deal brexit though. Only time will tell the actual outcome - the UK is not Qatar and not as tightly controlled either.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 May 2019, 22:07

Now we're talking.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/fo ... ats-tories

The new Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage is on course to win nearly 50 seats at the next general election after overtaking the Conservatives in a national poll for the first time.

Lab 27%
Brx 20%
Con 19%
LD 13%
CHUK 7%
Grn 5%
UKIP 3%

Labour still about 20 short of a majority on those figures, but Corbyn would be Prime Minister.

Post by **clv101** » 12 May 2019, 23:36

in a general election, I wonder how many Brexit Party candidates would be current Tory (ERG) MPs defecting in a hope to retain their seats?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 13 May 2019, 00:14

clv101 wrote:in a general election, I wonder how many Brexit Party candidates would be current Tory (ERG) MPs defecting in a hope to retain their seats?

From my view across the pond. I suppose some will try to make the party switch but expect most to fail. The Brexit party is looking for voters on both liberal and the Tory/conservative side so will be looking for new never before elected faces, not the same old retreads that have got things as muddled as they are.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 May 2019, 00:37

clv101 wrote:in a general election, I wonder how many Brexit Party candidates would be current Tory (ERG) MPs defecting in a hope to retain their seats?

Farage would obviously be happy to take any that feel like defecting. How many (if any) are likely to do so depends on how long it takes to get rid of May and who replaces her. What the hell will they even do?

If the tories rig the election so another anti-no-dealer gets it then I can't see any sensible path. The existing deal won't get through, the only other option is revoke, referendum or a general election where the tories would have to campaign on getting the withdrawal agreement through. That would lead to plenty of defections to BP, but I'll be amazed if it happens. The tories would never recover from it.

If it is a brexiteer then their only option is to go for no deal, but parliament won't let that happen so there would be a general election where UKIP/BP/tory are all competing for the no deal vote. Would Farage disband the BP? Surely not. Not until we actually leave the EU.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 13 May 2019, 08:23

If boris is elected BP goes down to 11 per cent in polls.

Presumably a Tory/BP/DUP coalition after the election would occur with a mandate to go for a hard Brexit if the EU refused to back down on the backstop.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 May 2019, 08:58

Lord Beria3 wrote:If boris is elected BP goes down to 11 per cent in polls.

Presumably a Tory/BP/DUP coalition after the election would occur with a mandate to go for a hard Brexit if the EU refused to back down on the backstop.

If the BP takes 10% of the tory vote then there will not be a tory/BP coalition because the BP won't win any seats and the tories will be nowhere near a majority. BP would be doing to the tories what the SDP did to Labour in 1983.