Brexit process

[vtsnowedin]

If the Brexit party wins fifty one percent of the next vote will they not be able to form a government without any of the smaller parties joining them in coalition?

That's not how it works, and they won't get 50% of the vote.

They'd need 50% +1 of the seats. But because their vote is split over all the different seats, even if they get 25% of the vote, they would probably only get a handful of seats.

Voting intention for the EU elections is pretty stunning though. Latest Yougov poll: Britain Elects - European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 28% (+5)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 13% (-4)
CHUK: 10% (+2)
GRN: 10% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
UKIP 5% (-1) via @YouGov, 23 - 26 Apr

I mean WOW. Tories on 13%. They are so f***ed. That's a miserable rating for the liberal democrats also.

If that poll was accurate and uniform over all of the UK would not the Brexit party win all of the seats?
Of course even I know you have your own version of Red states vs. blue states so you have to get down to seat by seat polls to know (or think you know) who will win each seat.
Considering the resent accuracy of polls in the UK and US I would not bet the rent on their say so.

[Little John]

The latest UK GE election polling shows 2m votes lost over the course of the last year by labour as a result of their ongoing treachery. So, while some would like to focus on the hammering the Tories are getting, that hammering is also happening to labour.

The various parties now standing at:

Labour 30%
Conservatives 27%
Brexit Party 14%
Lib Dem 11%
Green 5%
Ukip 4%
Change UK 3%
Other 6%

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/04/27/2m-vot ... th-notion/

If the EU elections end up with the results the polls are pointing to, with a wipe-out of the Tories and a major setback in MEP numbers for Labour, then it is entirely feasible that the weakening of support for the Tories and Labour will continue in the UK GE polls to the extent that, by the time of the election, Labour and the Tories will be in the mid 20% range and the Brexit party will have topped at least 20%, At which point, neither the Tories or Labour will get to govern unless they either form an alliance with the Brexit Party - in which case, Brexit will happen. Or, they form an alliance with each other to keep the Brexit party away form power. In which case, any pretence of a meaningful difference between the Left and Right in mainstream politics in this country will have been removed.

[UndercoverElephant]

If the Brexit party wins fifty one percent of the next vote will they not be able to form a government without any of the smaller parties joining them in coalition?

That's not how it works, and they won't get 50% of the vote.

They'd need 50% +1 of the seats. But because their vote is split over all the different seats, even if they get 25% of the vote, they would probably only get a handful of seats.

Voting intention for the EU elections is pretty stunning though. Latest Yougov poll: Britain Elects - European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 28% (+5)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 13% (-4)
CHUK: 10% (+2)
GRN: 10% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
UKIP 5% (-1) via @YouGov, 23 - 26 Apr

I mean WOW. Tories on 13%. They are so f***ed. That's a miserable rating for the liberal democrats also.

If that poll was accurate and uniform over all of the UK would not the Brexit party win all of the seats?

That's polling for an EU election, NOT a general election. It's for the European, not the British Parliament. If those figures were repeated in a general election then the brexit party might well pick up 50 or so seats from the tories, maybe 10 or 20 from labour. Result overall would probably be a narrow labour victory.

The problem for the BP is that their vote would be evenly distributed, instead of concentrated in winnable seats. That's why UKIP have never won a seat in the a GE, even though they've hit 15% of the popular vote.

[UndercoverElephant]

The latest UK GE election polling shows 2m votes lost by labour as a result of their ongoing treachery.

The various parties now standing at:

Labour 30%
Conservatives 27%
Brexit Party 14%
Lib Dem 11%
Green 5%
Ukip 4%
Change UK 3%
Other 6%

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/04/27/2m-vot ... th-notion/

Labour has been consistently polling around 30% for months. This vote share in a GE would put Corbyn in Downing Street.

[Little John]

In early February of this year Labour stood three points higher than they are now.

A year ago, they stood at 41%.

Furthermore, with the Labour Party currently at 30%, the Tories at 27% and the Brexit Party at 14%, what would there be to stop the Tories and the Brexit Party forming an alliance at 41% and assuming government? Or, at the very least, hobbling Labour in government in a manner that will make what has happened to May's government look like a walk in the park by comparison?

And all of the above is based on current polls. With the direction of travel of the Conservative Party, the Labour Party and the Brexit party, it is entirely feasible to conceive of the Tories and Labour being in the mid to late 20% region and the Brexit party breaching the 20% mark by the time that election comes round.

Tell me again how Labour's vote is holding up...

[UndercoverElephant]

In early February of this year Labour stood three points higher than they are now.

A year ago, they stood at 41%.

Yes, but as I keep pointing out, they are losing support much more slowly than the tories, and under FPTP this will deliver them a big majority.

For Corbyn this is about winning the next election. Not brexit.

[Little John]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... kers_w.pdf

Latest Euro election poll

Brexit Party - 30%

Labour - 21%

Conservatives - 13%

Lib Dems - 10%

Change Uk - 9%

Greens - 9%

UKIP - 4%

It is the Labour party that has seen the most significant fall in its percentage share of the poll since the last poll. Not the Tory party, who are already looking at a near wipeout and probably have not much further to fall.

So, the Brexit party is now looking set to rock UK politics.

2 weeks before the Peterborough by-election....

[PS_RalphW]

That opinion poll result is not so different from the previous EU election result - Brexit (AKA Nigel Farage) has gained a few percent from both Labour and Cons, as have the new ChangeUK. The other parties are little changed.

In other words, both main parties are being punished because they are both split down the middle, cons more than labour because they are supposed to be in charge.

In other news , the local election results so far are

Liberals and Greens (remain) big gains
Labour (Ambivalent) small losses
Cons (nominally brexit) big losses
UKIP (strongly brexit) nearly wiped out
Independent (positions will vary) big gains

[UndercoverElephant]

It is the Labour party that has seen the most significant fall in its percentage share of the poll since the last poll. Not the Tory party, who are already looking at a near wipeout and probably have not much further to fall.

So, the Brexit party is now looking set to rock UK politics.

Labour is also probably nearing its baseline. Remember we've had years now of vicious anti-Corbyn propaganda, and most hardline leavers have already abandoned Labour. The remaining Labour support is the people who think Corbyn's wider agenda is more important than brexit, plus tactical voters who will vote Labour to ensure the tories don't win.

The Brexit Party is indeed likely to rock UK politics though, and not least because the UKIP vote has collapsed (permanently this time). But there can be no doubt who their primary victim will be, and it is the tories. They may actually take quite a few seats off the tories, and if so they will be what until recently were considered very safe seats. Tory voters who have no fear of Labour winning are more likely to defect to BP.

I do have to keep repeating this though: this sort of distribution of votes is very good news for Labour, even though they are nominally losing vote share. The whole country is split over brexit, and Labour's strategy since the start was to minimise the damage to themselves because of this split. It currently looks like they've done that as well as could be imagined. They'd be in a worse position if they'd come out more strongly leave or remain.

[Little John]

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/05/04/in-22- ... -leave-eu/

In 22 areas, Labour lost five or more seats this week. ALL voted to leave EU

Labour centrists and their brethren in other parties continue to insist that this week’s local election results – massive losses for the Tories and a small loss for Labour – are a call for the party to push harder for a new referendum or to ‘stop Brexit’ altogether.

The fact, already shown by the SKWAWKBOX while results were still coming in, that most of Labour’s net loss in councillors was in leave-voting areas – not to mention that even election expert John Curtice sees nothing in the results to suggest a remain surge – undermines that spin.

But a more extensive analysis of Labour’s final results makes the point even more emphatically.

In twenty-two authorities, Labour lost five or more councillors. Below is a list of those authorities along with their result this week – and their vote in the 2016 referendum:

Ashfield -20 (Leave 70%)
NE Derbs -17 (63%)
Bolsover -14 (71%)
Redcar & C -13 (66%)
Middlesbrough -13 (66%)
Sunderland-12 (61%)
Alderdale -11 (59%)
Chesterfield-10 (60%)
Stockton -8 (62%)
Darlington -9 (56%)
Lancaster -8 (51%)
Barnsley -7 (61%)
Bolton -7 (58%)
Derby -6 (57%)
NE Lincs -6 (70%)
E Yorks -6 (60%)
Carlisle -6 (60%)
Blackpool -6 (68%)
Forest of Dean -6 (59%)
Stoke -5 (69%)
S Tyneside -5 (62%)
Newark & S -5 (60%)

These results strongly support the analysis put forward by some Labour commentators that Labour’s losses this week were driven by leave-supporting Labour voters staying at home in protest at the continuing noise made by Labour remain MPs about a new referendum, many of them making that noise in spite of the votes of their constituencies.

The results also suggest that in cases where remain parties picked up seats from Labour – relatively few in number – it was because supporters of those parties were motivated to turn out at the same time as leave-supporting Labour voters stayed away.

As Curtice observed to Radio 4’s Today programme yesterday, he sees no evidence LibDem gains were linked to support for remain, or for a new referendum they say they want. Analysis of Labour’s results suggests the same.

[UndercoverElephant]

Steve,

You appear to be parroting the same angle on this as the BBC: "Tories and Labour BOTH given a bloody nose because of Brexit." True, but very misleading.

Labour lost 82 seats. The tories lost 1334. Over sixteen times as many losses as Labour. If we really are seeing the end of the two party system, then the winner at the end of it, on these figures, will be Labour. They will be the biggest party. They'll have the largest base level.

What do you think Labour could have done, or do, to be higher in the polls or get better results nationally?

[Little John]

Firstly, what they could have done is stand on principle instead of political expedience and taken the risk of leading at the time when this country is both in dire need of leadership and so equally bereft of it. This may be said irrespective of the direction taken, though I have my own obvious preference.

Secondly, the Skawkbox could hardly be said to be a BBC Tory supporting clone. Have you actually read the analysis? If so, which part do you specifically contest?

[UndercoverElephant]

Firstly, what they could have done is stand on principle instead of political expedience and taken the risk of leading at the time when this country is both in dire need of leadership and so equally bereft of it. This may be said irrespective of the direction taken, though I have my own obvious preference.

How can Labour "stand on principle" when its own members don't agree on what that entails? One lot say standing on principle means respecting the referendum result, and another lot say it means doing what Labour MPs genuinely believe is best for the country (and a majority believe that means remaining in the EU).

Have you actually read the analysis? If so, which part do you specifically contest?

I don't disagree with it. Where I disagree with you is that it would be better for Labour to push for a no deal (which is what presumably you'd like them to do). It might win them some votes in some places, but it would lose them more votes in others.

[Little John]

And what they are going to do, is lose it all like the Tories, for precisely the same reason. Sure, enough, they have some cover as a consequence of being in opposition. But, that excuse is fading fast and will disappear completely when a GE hits. At which point, Labour's slow motion collapse will turn into a full speed one just like the Tories.

[UndercoverElephant]

Sure, enough, they have some cover as a consequence of being in opposition. But, that excuse is fading fast and will disappear completely when a GE hits. At which point, Labour's slow motion collapse will turn into a full speed one just like the Tories.

I can't agree. The two situations are fundamentally different, it's not just because the tories are in power and labour is not. All Labour can actually do is to either support May's deal or not support it. Presumably you don't want them to support it, right? They can't do anything else apart from try to force a general election.

What will happen at that election? Assuming it is while there is still a deadlocked extension of article 50 going on then the Brexit Party and UKIP could get 30-40% of the vote between them, taking half of the tory core vote and a significant chunk of labour leavers. The result will be a very deeply hung parliament with labour as the largest party and the only party with any hope of leading a coalition government. And that government would only be possible if the labour party agrees to hold a referendum of some sort.