Brexit process

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Apr 2019, 18:47

RevdTess wrote:Amused that Farage failed to register https://thebrexitparty.com/ for his new party...

Edit: Oh no it's spreading http://thebrexitparty.eu/

To be fair, people don't find their way to websites by typing in likely URLs. They google it, and if they do that, they will find https://thebrexitparty.org/

The bizarre thing is they've chosen "We are going to change politics for good" as their slogan. That one has sort of been taken.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 12 Apr 2019, 21:26

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ier-F.html

An early sign of the times? Imagine what will happen if Brexit is stopped.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Apr 2019, 21:58

Lord Beria3 wrote:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ier-F.html

An early sign of the times? Imagine what will happen if Brexit is stopped.

If brexit is stopped? It has been stopped, LB.

The EU has indicated it would consider a further extension, and this parliament will not allow no deal to occur. With no deal no longer a threat, May has no chance of getting the WA through parliament, and the EU have no reason to re-open it. Which means we are at a dead end, and nothing will change until there is either a revocation or a general election (I still don't believe a referendum is going to be possible this side of an election). If there's a referendum then no deal won't be an option and remain will win, and if there's an election then the parliament returned the other side will be less brexity than this one, simply because the brexit party and UKIP will hoover up most of the leave vote without much chance of winning seats.

To be honest I have no idea what is actually going to happen when brexit is stopped. Perhaps it will force major reform of the EU.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 13 Apr 2019, 18:16

Why would it do that? Nothing has led to EU reform which requires treaty change anyway.

If you are right and Brexit is de facto revoked it will lead to serious political problems in the UK and I wouldn't rule out mass civil unrest.

At the very least around 20% of the population will switch to the Brexit Party assuming it gets off the ground.

Its unlikely that either the Tories or Labour will get a majority again in that case. Our politics will turn European, with perma hung parliaments, a hard-right nationalists within parliament and painful coalition talks every time there is a ge.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 13 Apr 2019, 18:25

Lord Beria3 wrote:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ier-F.html

An early sign of the times? Imagine what will happen if Brexit is stopped.

No, there will be no mass protests/riots/insurrection if brexit is stopped. Some localised trouble perhaps but nothing along the lines expected from some people here imo.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 13 Apr 2019, 19:46

Who knows!

I think the key electorally is the Labour Leave vote. Will they finally desert Labour or will they carry on voting like donkeys for a party that betrayed the referendum result.

Post by **clv101** » 13 Apr 2019, 19:51

Over the last few days I've spent some time with several different groups of people, in the past some strong pro-brext and some pro-remain. For the first time in the last couple of years, Brexit didn't come up in conversation! It was actually a little strange *not* to have the obligatory Brexit debate. Just chance? Anyone seen similar over the last few days? Are people just getting bored of it?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 13 Apr 2019, 20:33

I don't think that a 'less Brexity' Brexit will work out.

A total revocation would be better ... but that would infuriate 50% of the population.

Difficult to square the circle.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Apr 2019, 21:45

Lord Beria3 wrote:Why would it do that? Nothing has led to EU reform which requires treaty change anyway.

This intake of new MEPs is going to change things, especially if the UK MEPs are a permanent fixture. The EU's problem is that people all over Europe, not just the UK, are starting to use EU parliament elections as a way to send a message to mainstream politicians about their dissatisfaction with the way the EU is currently run. We're going to end up with a majority of anti-EU MEPs.

If you are right and Brexit is de facto revoked it will lead to serious political problems in the UK and I wouldn't rule out mass civil unrest.

At the very least around 20% of the population will switch to the Brexit Party assuming it gets off the ground.

They certainly will at European elections. Not sure what will happen at a general election. Maybe.

Its unlikely that either the Tories or Labour will get a majority again in that case. Our politics will turn European, with perma hung parliaments, a hard-right nationalists within parliament and painful coalition talks every time there is a ge.

Very likely, yes.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Apr 2019, 21:46

Lord Beria3 wrote:Who knows!

I think the key electorally is the Labour Leave vote. Will they finally desert Labour or will they carry on voting like donkeys for a party that betrayed the referendum result.

I'm not so sure they will see Labour as having betrayed the referendum result. They are likely to blame the tories for that.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Apr 2019, 21:48

clv101 wrote: Are people just getting bored of it?

People are totally sick of it, but that doesn't mean they'll accept any old outcome just to get it over with. There will be a break now, until parliament comes back and the tories get a massive kicking in the local elections, and then we'll be staring down the barrel of some totally surreal EU elections. I am expecting the tories to be almost wiped out.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Apr 2019, 21:50

Vortex2 wrote:I don't think that a 'less Brexity' Brexit will work out.

A total revocation would be better ... but that would infuriate 50% of the population.

Difficult to square the circle.

That 50% do not want May's deal. If parliament won't deliver a no deal brexit then we might as well revoke. Starting again from scratch is better than trying to fix May's deal.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 Apr 2019, 04:37

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:Who knows!

I think the key electorally is the Labour Leave vote. Will they finally desert Labour or will they carry on voting like donkeys for a party that betrayed the referendum result.
I'm not so sure they will see Labour as having betrayed the referendum result. They are likely to blame the tories for that.

Not round here. Round here, the fury at Labour is white hot.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 Apr 2019, 08:05

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:Who knows!

I think the key electorally is the Labour Leave vote. Will they finally desert Labour or will they carry on voting like donkeys for a party that betrayed the referendum result.
I'm not so sure they will see Labour as having betrayed the referendum result. They are likely to blame the tories for that.
Not round here. Round here, the fury at Labour is white hot.

Labour are still likely to gain more than they lose if they back a second referendum. At the end of the day, Labour are not responsible for negotiating May's deal, and have a reasonable case (regarding large-scale loss of manufacturing jobs) for failing to support no deal. The polls indicate that the tories are suffering far worse than labour because of the long extension.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 Apr 2019, 11:11

The polls are indicating they are both suffering with the Tories suffering slightly more. Which is hardly surprising given they are in the driving seat. What is even more surprising, given they are not, is how much the labour vote has also suffered. However in truth, this is not that surprising given that Labour are seen as being traitors to the democratic vote of the referendum no less than the Tories. The Tories are only getting it in the neck slightly more due to them being viewed as having a bit more degree of control.

But, come an election, neither the Tories nor Labour will have any cover and they will both be hammered. Maybe not enough, this time around, to stop one of them limping into 10 Downing Street. But, enough to F--k things up and enough to provide a clear sign of times to come.