Brexit process

[Potemkin Villager]

Amazingly the so called ERG seems to finally be getting around to apparently doing some research at last. More and more hardliners are proving to be no more than ludicrously huffing and puffing paper tigers and doing impressively shameless u-turns. Distinct lack of backbone.

The BBC in particular are letting people get away with ridiculous unjustified statements without challenge. Some nutjob says they believe such and such and no matter how dodgy the belief is it is never challenged by the obvious follow on question as to how they come to this conclusion and what their faith is based on.

Classic cult behaviour worthy of the Scientologists.

[Lord Beria3]

Interesting observation from SW1 coverage of Brexit, supporters of no deal are considered either cranks, UKIP entryists or marginal.

The truth is quite the opposite. Roughly 40 per cent want a no deal Brexit and that includes the majority of leave voters.

When will this political reality sink in to our media and political class?

[Little John]

They already know it. They are deliberately pushing a narrative they know to be untrue because, in the absence of that narrative being dominant, they will not be able to hold the line.

[UndercoverElephant]

The truth is quite the opposite. Roughly 40 per cent want a no deal Brexit and that includes the majority of leave voters.

When will this political reality sink in to our media and political class?

Doesn't make any difference whether it sinks in or not. No deal is not going to happen, and I don't think brexit is going to happen either. The tide has turned. If no deal is going to happen, it needs to happen this week. But it won't. Instead, May and parliament are going to agree to a one year extension to article 50.

What happens next? That depends on whether the tory party can force May out (or she finally develops a conscience and resigns).

If May goes then presumably the tories will replace her with a Brexiteer, but that person still won't have the numbers in the commons to force either no deal or May's withdrawal agreement through. There would then have to be a general election, which the tories would fight on finally delivering brexit. And I think they would lose, but the party would survive.

If May stays then she will continue to try to manipulate parliament into backing her deal, which will destroy the tory party as we know it. People don't seem to believe this is even possible, but look at the demographics. The tories already had a massive problem with an aging, ever-declining membership, and if May refuses to go it will trigger a mass-exodus of both members and voters, mainly to Farage's new party, but also potentially to CUK. They will be decimated at the local elections and wiped out completely in the EU elections.

I've compared to her to Nick Leeson before, and it's still apt. If the tories can't get rid of her, then she'll do to them what Leeson did to Baring's Bank. And when Labour eventually wins the inevitable election, they will hold a second referendum.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest... I'm sticking with my short term extension call.

EU first needs to decide what it wants from an extension: 2nd ref or ratification

There is really quite a bit of confusion in the news reports coming from Brussels last night and this morning. When EU leaders meet today, they will not mechanistically go through a series of dates. They will rather discuss what an extension should accomplish: do they want to put pressure on the UK parliament to ratify the withdrawal agreement; or do they want the UK to revoke Brexit, pending a second referendum? The best way to secure ratification, in our view, would be to agree a relatively short extension - until end-May or end-June, and to declare that extension final. That would take out all the Cooper-Letwin nonsense and other attempts to sideline the actual choice. It would force the UK parliament to focus on the three options that really are on the table: ratify, revoke or leave without a deal. 

Donald Tusk has never left any doubt that he wants the UK to cancel Brexit. Hence, his idea of a one-year extension. We presume that the leaks came from his office. But we know for sure that this is not everybody’s position in the European Council. There are huge risks for the EU in a second referendum, most notably the risk of another pro-Brexit vote and the certainty that the UK will continue to dominate the EU’s agenda at a time when it should really be thinking about something else. Furthermore, by agreeing a long extension, EU leaders are very likely to take away the incentive for the UK government and the Labour Party to agree a deal, because the second-referendum supporters would no longer feel obliged to seek a compromise. 

The EU is not only misjudging the potential outcome of a referendum, but also the debate likely to precede it. A second referendum is almost certain to confound two issues: Brexit and democratic legitimacy. We know of Remainers who are so revolted by the idea of a second referendum that they would support Brexit out of spite. Whatever the outcome, we don’t think it would settle the issue.

This consideration alone should persuade EU leaders to think through the scenario of a long extension more carefully than they have so far. We don’t know for sure how long Theresa May will survive. Maybe until the autumn. If she does not deliver Brexit by December and is still prime minister then, she will surely be ousted in a vote of confidence by her own party. A new Tory leader will be in place by early 2020 at the latest. The EU would then rely on that leader to deliver Brexit.

There is talk of an agreement between May and the European Council that the UK would exercise self-restraint during the extension period. But the European Council cannot bind her successors. It cannot override treaty law. Until it leaves, the UK will remain a full voting member at the Council. 

A non-binding gentlemen’s agreement is certainly possible, but do EU leaders really believe that a future UK prime minister who openly advocates a no-deal Brexit would adhere to such an agreement? All Boris Johnson would need to do to trigger a no-deal Brexit would be to misbehave. The proposition of a gentlemen’s agreement seems ill-conceived to us, drawn up deep inside the European Council by people without a deep understanding of UK politics.

We have no doubt that Theresa May would adhere to anything she agrees with EU leaders, which is why the European Council should treat the foreseeable limit of her political life span as the outer date for a brexit extension. It is not clear that she can survive the summer. If the results of local and European elections next month turn out to be a rout for the Tories, the pressure on May to resign might become intolerable. 

So what should the European Council do? There have been a lot of leaks yesterday about the extension date - most of them pointing towards a long extension. A German journalist, Stefan Leifert from ZDF television, writes the discussion will focus on three extension dates: end of this year, end-March 2020, end-December 2021. The latter would have the advantage of coinciding with the EU’s budget period - a shockingly trivial reason considering what is at stake. We are not sure that this timetable would survive the actual discussions among leaders. 

We noted a brave prediction by the UK journalist Robert Peston who has been told that the EU is more likely to grant a short extension, since the current process of cross-party talks in the UK does not need more time. We all know that May will offer Labour a customs union, but she cannot do this right now. Maybe she will make a move after this week’s European Council.

It is possible of course that leaders are betting on a conclusion of the Brexit process after another UK election. May will be gone by the end of the year. But be careful what you wish for. An election remains vastly more probable than a second referendum. Under Jeremy Corbyn as leader, Labour will maintain its current Brexit stance - a customs union. The Tories could pivot towards a no-deal Brexit. We are not sure that the new centre party, campaigning in favour of a second referendum, will win many seats. The elections will thus offer the electorate an effective choice of customs union versus no deal. Why would EU leaders want to get to this point?

Little John would you vote Tory at a ge where boris is campaigning for a no deal against Labour?

[RevdTess]

Some interesting polling from Kantar:

Kantar voting intention polls (4th – 8th April 2019) show Conservative 32% (-9 vs Mar 2019), Labour 35% (+4 vs Mar 2019), Lib Dems 11% (+3), UKIP 7% (+1), SNP 5% (nc), Green 4% (-2), Plaid Cymru 1% (+1), Other 6% (+4).

As Prime Minister May returns from meeting with President Macron and Chancellor Merkle to garner support for an extension to Article 50, Kantar’s research finds that remaining in the EU/Revoking Article 50 is the most popular outcome for the public, with one in three saying this is their most favourable scenario (33%).

Leaving the European Union with ‘No Deal’ is the preferred outcome for one in four Britons (24%). Just over 1 in 10 (12%) want to Leave the EU with Theresa May’s deal, and 1 in 6 want Britain to leave the EU but remain in the Single Market / Customs Union (15%).

Over half of Britons are in favour of any final deal or agreement reached by the government being put to a public referendum (51%). A third of Leave voters (35%) and two thirds of Remain voters (67%) say they want any agreement to be put to a public vote. 1 in 3 Britons (32%) do not want any final deal put to a public vote, and the remainder do not have an opinion (17%).

How would the public vote if a new referendum was held?

Leave 35% (+3 vs Mar 2019), Remain 41% (+1), Would Not Vote 15% (-6), Don’t Know 9% (+1).

https://uk.kantar.com/public-opinion/po ... blic-vote/

I have to say though, there is a ridiculous amount of volatility in their published polling history.

[RevdTess]

Also from same report:

Over 1 in 4 (27%, +6 vs Mar 2019) say it is very or somewhat likely that they would vote for ‘Change UK – The Independent Party’ at the next General Election (if a candidate stood in their constituency). Of people who said they would consider voting for them, support is seen from those who voted for Labour (38%)and Conservatives (24%).

Almost 1 in 4 Britons (23%) say it is very or somewhat likely that they would vote for ‘The Brexit Party’ at the next general election (if a candidate stood in their constituency). Of people who said they would vote for them, a third of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2017 would consider supporting them (36%).

[UndercoverElephant]

Eurointeligence latest... I'm sticking with my short term extension call.

EU first needs to decide what it wants from an extension: 2nd ref or ratification

These people still don't get it. The withdrawal deal cooked up between Berlin and Downing Street is NOT going to be ratified with the backstop unchanged. EVER.

Even Theresa May, belatedly, understands this now.

[UndercoverElephant]

Tory vote is in freefall:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-ele ... elections/

Theresa May’s Conservatives would face a crushing defeat if the UK were to take part in next month’s European elections, according to a poll published on Wednesday (10 April).

May’s party would take only 23% of the vote compared to 38% for the Labour party, according to the poll for the Open Europe think-tank by Hanbury Strategy. Nigel Farage’s newly created Brexit party would take 10%, while his former party UKIP would claim 8%.

[RevdTess]

These people still don't get it. The withdrawal deal cooked up between Berlin and Downing Street is NOT going to be ratified with the backstop unchanged. EVER.

Once the Brexiteers and DUP had decided that leaving with the WA basically effectively keeps us trapped by EU rules, they no longer see any difference between Remain and the WA and there's no point voting for the WA even if Brexit is at risk.

I'm not convinced the WA is really that bad, otherwise how could it meet May's red lines of no free movement, no customs union etc? But the Brexiteers seem convinced it's basically the same as Remain, so that's how they're behaving.

[UndercoverElephant]

the Brexiteers seem convinced it's basically the same as Remain, so that's how they're behaving.

The backstop is worse than remaining. Much worse.

[UndercoverElephant]

So...extension to October 31st it is. That's when the EU has to replace Juncker. Pretty much forces a UK general election, I think.

[UndercoverElephant]

Anyone still believe a no deal brexit is likely to happen?

Looks completely dead to me, as does May's deal.

Tory leadership election --> GE --> referendum --> revoke.

[RevdTess]

Anyone still believe a no deal brexit is likely to happen?

Looks completely dead to me, as does May's deal.

Tory leadership election --> GE --> referendum --> revoke.

I'd say there's an increased chance of an agreement around Labour's customs union with or without a referendum. There's six months to negotiate that now. I suspect Corbyn will use the referendum demand as a bargaining chip, and eventually May will agree to put the customs union into the political declaration in exchange for not having a referendum and preferably getting the WA through before the EU elections which the Tories are understandably desperate to avoid.

If the talks break down it will be because May has refused to break her red line on the customs union. Then there could be some legally binding votes on how to move forward if Labour dares to agree. That is also likely to lead to a customs union and possibly a referendum.

I'm not convinced the Tories can get rid of May at the moment any more than the Labour MPs could get rid of Corbyn. May is so totally determined to fulfil her promise and gain her legacy, I don't expect a new PM until the WA is agreed, or possibly after June 30th if we still haven't got anywhere. If we reach July and there's still nothing agreed, then I think a GE becomes more likely, even though a GE seems suicidal for Tories at the moment, given how much their vote will be split by UKIP and the Brexit Party.

[UndercoverElephant]

I'd say there's an increased chance of an agreement around Labour's customs union with or without a referendum. There's six months to negotiate that now. I suspect Corbyn will use the referendum demand as a bargaining chip, and eventually May will agree to put the customs union into the political declaration in exchange for not having a referendum and preferably getting the WA through before the EU elections which the Tories are understandably desperate to avoid.

But that would be suicidal for Labour, wouldn't it? They'd have to be bonkers to put their fingerprints all over May's deal without a referendum. And if there's a referendum between that deal (+CU) and remain, remain will win.

I'm not convinced the Tories can get rid of May at the moment any more than the Labour MPs could get rid of Corbyn.

There is currently an attempt to get rid of her by changing the tory party constitution. Requires a petition with 10,000 signatures of members, which should be a doddle.