Brexit process

[adam2]

It seems to me that UKIP and the relatively new Brexit party have somewhat similar aims.

If these two parties agreed to work together, perhaps by not standing against each other, then they might each win significant numbers of seats, and thus upset the establishment.

I consider it more likely though that UKIP and the Brexit party will remain competitors thereby splitting the "leave the EU" vote.

Note that in the recent Newport by-election, that the two major parties still did reasonably well, with relatively few votes for other parties.
Labour did fairly well, they held the seat, though with a significantly reduced majority.
Conservatives did fairly well, they lost, but by a much smaller margin than last time.
Not much sign in Newport of any huge change in support for the two major parties.

[UndercoverElephant]

Those numbers will be reflective of every Labour marginal outside of the South East. Labour would be slaughtered in those marginals if a GE were held tomorrow.

But, I am guessing Conservative marginals will be facing the same.

There WILL be consequences to all of this.

The first consequence is likely to be the local elections on May 2nd. These are local elections in England (but not London) last held on the same day as the 2015 general election. ie a lot of tory held councils, last contested on a day the tories outperformed expectations and won a GE.

If my prediction in the previous post is correct - that we are heading towards revoke - then both main parties will be annihilated in those local elections. We are going to see hung councils up and down the country, with brexit party and UKIP making hundreds of gains.

[Vortex2]

Listening to LBC today it was said that if the EU refuse an extension, the ONLY option on our side is to revoke.

MPs have blocked almost every other route.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -shattered

Ever since the 2016 referendum put the UK on course to leave the EU, both May and Corbyn have tried to manage the deep divides on Europe in their own parties over Brexit. But managing division by avoiding hard choices is no longer possible if a consensus is to be reached. The UK is due to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April unless the House of Commons reaches agreement. It is decision time. But the moment of choosing what sort of Brexit the country should have has brought internal divisions even more to the fore. As one former Tory minister who resigned recently over Brexit said on Wednesday: “A cross-party solution to Brexit should be possible – in theory. What makes it impossible in practice is that neither leader can afford to give any real ground. If they do, they know the consequences would be to split their parties irreparably. Take the issue of a permanent customs union which Labour is demanding. If May endorses that half her cabinet resigns. Corbyn is trapped too. If he is seen to have helped get a Tory Brexit over the line, he will never be forgiven by most of his own party who are against Brexit and want a second referendum. We’re all just screwed.�


If there is agreement on one thing at Westminster these days, it is that the two main parties almost certainly cannot survive Brexit in their current forms. Neither the Conservatives nor Labour offers a comfortable home either for convinced Brexiters or ardent Remainers. Conversations with MPs and ministers about the future of politics post-Brexit increasingly move towards a conclusion that Brexit will accelerate a realignment. Two-thirds of the Tory party is made up of hardline Brexiters and the other third comprises soft and hard Remainers. As one Remainer Tory MP put it: “After all this, it is impossible to see the likes of Dominic Grieve [strongly Remain] sitting in the same party as Jacob Rees-Mogg or Boris Johnson. A split is coming.�

It does look like we could be heading towards a no-deal versus revoke option within weeks (or months).

Question is would MP's really revoke Article 50 given the explosion that would cause from Leave seats. I'm thinking, of course, in particular Labour seats in the north.

Those MP's would be akin to turkeys voting for Christmas, given that the Brexit Party would be well positioned to sweep the north in the aftermath.

[UndercoverElephant]

Question is would MP's really revoke Article 50 given the explosion that would cause from Leave seats. I'm thinking, of course, in particular Labour seats in the north.

Those MP's would be akin to turkeys voting for Christmas, given that the Brexit Party would be well positioned to sweep the north in the aftermath.

Sure, some Labour MPs would vote for no deal. I just don't think there will be enough to produce a majority for no deal over revoke.

[RevdTess]

I can really only see two options out of the impasse. Either the govt agrees to put the whole question to the electorate in a three-way-referendum of May's deal vs wto terms vs remain using a fair voting system (eg STV), or they revoke A50.

The referendum would at least offer Brexiteers the hope that the public will go for their option either as first or second choice, enough to beat remain again. And remainers have all promised to shut up if Leave wins now that everyone knows what they're voting for.

But Revoking A50 doesn't need to be the end either. They could continue to negotiate the full post-Brexit deal and once agreed, put it to the country in referendum or GE manifesto. The next time the Tories have a proper majority, they can push the whole thing through in one parliament.

As a Remainer, the last thing I want to see is MPs revoking A50 outright. Only the people should be able to do that, not parliament.

[Little John]

Question is would MP's really revoke Article 50 given the explosion that would cause from Leave seats. I'm thinking, of course, in particular Labour seats in the north.

Those MP's would be akin to turkeys voting for Christmas, given that the Brexit Party would be well positioned to sweep the north in the aftermath.

Sure, some Labour MPs would vote for no deal. I just don't think there will be enough to produce a majority for no deal over revoke.

Every single region in the UK bar Scotland and the city of London now back leaving with no deal. It's not just the Northern Labour heartlands that would face a backlash. It has dawned on ordinary citizens this is about more than Brexit now. It's always been about more than Brexit.

[UndercoverElephant]

I can really only see two options out of the impasse. Either the govt agrees to put the whole question to the electorate in a three-way-referendum of May's deal vs wto terms vs remain using a fair voting system (eg STV)...

Won't happen. No deal will not appear on a ballot paper, ever.

But Revoking A50 doesn't need to be the end either. They could continue to negotiate the full post-Brexit deal and once agreed, put it to the country in referendum or GE manifesto. The next time the Tories have a proper majority, they can push the whole thing through in one parliament.

Sure, revoke would not be the end.

[Vortex2]

The Conservative Party cannot afford a general election .. apparently due to cancelled memberships and cancelled donations.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetor ... paign.html

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.astro.com/astrology/iam_art ... SYKuo4vsKk

It seems that the need of Great Britain to leave EU is actually the need of late Margaret Thatcher’s Soul, and they are implemented by the present prime minister Theresa May, very unconsciously, through her retrograde Mars at 13° Pisces...

[kenneal - lagger]

But Revoking A50 doesn't need to be the end either. They could continue to negotiate the full post-Brexit deal and once agreed, put it to the country in referendum or GE manifesto. The next time the Tories have a proper majority, they can push the whole thing through in one parliament.

Sure, revoke would not be the end.

But I thought that the EU won't/can't negotiate on a post Brexit deal until we've left the EU so we can't vote on a known deal before leaving.

[RevdTess]

But I thought that the EU won't/can't negotiate on a post Brexit deal until we've left the EU so we can't vote on a known deal before leaving.

Are you sure about that? My understanding was that we couldn't negotiate on a trade deal with the EU until the withdrawal agreement had been ratified, and we couldn't make trade deals with 3rd countries until we'd left the EU, but there was nothing to stop us negotiating a future relationship with the EU during the A50 process if we'd been able to ratify the WA quickly.

IIRC one of the proposed solutions to the current impasse (by some Tories I think) was to extend A50 for two years while we both sorted out the WA *and* agreed our future trading relationship.

Still, if you're right, I agree it makes solving the problem even harder. The main reason Labour (and ERG and DUP for that matter) won't support the WA is that it leaves the future relationship with the EU too open to question.

[UndercoverElephant]

IIRC one of the proposed solutions to the current impasse (by some Tories I think) was to extend A50 for two years while we both sorted out the WA *and* agreed our future trading relationship.

EU point blank refused to do that, because the negotiations would have been fair, instead of the EU holding nearly all the cards.

[clv101]

Wow, that video. Purposefully shaky camera pointing at our PM on her couch, trying to laugh and talk like a normal person. Such careful wording 'This week parliament...' sounding like 'This weak parliament'. It's intentional and desperate. She isn't one of us. She has to be trained to try and sound relateable. Reports of our continuing surge to the far right and people suggesting they wouldn't mind an authoritarian government. This is going to be a desperate week in Westminster.

Extension, deal (+Labour addition) or no deal.

One thing not many seem to be talking about is the day after no deal, not the disruption, but the negotiations. First day of no deal, is the first day of negotiation with EU for what will be the ongoing relationship - and the starting point will be the WA text.

[UndercoverElephant]

the starting point will be the WA text.

It will be if May remains in charge. What is required is a new prime minister who will take that WA, squat over it, and deposit a large turd on top. Then turns to the EU and says "Shall we start again?"