Brexit process

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Apr 2019, 09:30

Now one of the UKâ€™s top police chiefs has warned people to tone down their Brexit rhetoric when using words like "betray" and "traitor".

So, we now have a political class that are betraying the result of a democratic vote and a police that are attempting to criminalise the expression of anger and criticism in the population at this treachery.

This is the behaviour of a police state.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 05 Apr 2019, 09:51

Vortex2 wrote:It's Friday morning and I'm trying to find out what happened in the Lords yesterday.

Hardly a word in the news feeds that I can find.

So .. are they still sitting? Did they decide anything? Are they sitting today? Or are they sitting again on Monday? What's going on?

They are sitting again on Monday.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 05 Apr 2019, 09:53

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:It's Friday morning and I'm trying to find out what happened in the Lords yesterday.

Hardly a word in the news feeds that I can find.

So .. are they still sitting? Did they decide anything? Are they sitting today? Or are they sitting again on Monday? What's going on?
They are sitting again on Monday.

Thanks. No idea why the media are so quiet about this.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Apr 2019, 10:02

Get ready for a major distraction in the MSM.

Something like a major terrorist attack, or Assange being evicted from the Ecuadorian Embassy.

Post by **adam2** » 05 Apr 2019, 13:20

Please keep on the subject of Brexit.
If you wish to comment on the Assange affair, such remarks should be added to the long running thread on that subject.
It may be found here.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... &start=900

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Apr 2019, 19:02

If the Newport West by-election is anything to go by, it's not looking good for Labour. They held onto their seat, but dropped their votes by 12% and, more ominously, their loss of votes was 4% more than the Tories. Meanwhile, UKIP increased their vote to nearly double what they got at the last GE in this constituency.

If that is echoed across the country in a GE, Labour would be wiped out.

You reap what you sow.

Labour should have stuck by their promise to honour the result of the EU referendum,

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 05 Apr 2019, 19:12

Little John wrote:If the Newport West by-election is anything to go by, it's not looking good for Labour. They held onto their seat, but dropped their votes by 12% and, more ominously, their loss of votes was 4% more than the Tories. Meanwhile, UKIP increased their vote to nearly double what they got at the last GE in this constituency.

If that is echoed across the country in a GE, Labour would be wiped out.

You reap what you sow.

Labour should have stuck by their promise to honour the result of the EU referendum,

I don't think that by-election result tells us anything useful about what would happen in a general election. Turnout was low, weather was shit, the result wasn't really in doubt, there were important local factors (the previous Labour MP was very popular personally, and some people voted for him because they liked him, who wouldn't normally vote Labour) and a general election would have a different context (not least, new manifestos and campaigns). Although the general pattern of both tories and labour losing support in all directions may well be repeated nationally.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Apr 2019, 19:21

On no-deal, as with so much else, the public is streets ahead of our gutless politicians

...Pushed to extremes, the public is backing WTO. New YouGov polling reveals that just as MPs are rallying to take the no-deal option off the table, public opinion has crystallised behind it....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... it_premium

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 05 Apr 2019, 19:24

So these sham talks between the tories and labour have broken down, with Labour claiming there was no real attempt by the tories to compromise. What a surprise.

And May has asked for an extension to the end of May, with no reason given, and the EU has indicated it will refuse. Their conditions for an extension were quite clear, and this request quite clearly doesn't satisfy them.

What is she doing? She's wasted three more days with negotiations that she knew wouldn't go anywhere, then asked for an extension she knew the EU refuse. Presumably her cunning plan was to hope the EU would say yes to the extension anyway, and then run the clock down again, this time knowing no further extension is possible, in yet another attempt to force the commons to accept her deal.

On Monday the Cooper bill will become law, and May will be required to seek a long extension at the summit on Wednesday. The EU has said she needs to come up with a reason (ie commit the UK to a GE or referendum) by Tuesday. So what if she doesn't do it? What if Tuesday comes and goes and there's no commitment to a GE or referendum? What happens if we get to next Friday and the Prime Minister has failed to do what is going to be required of her by law?

I reckon the EU will offer her a long extension anyway, and according to the Cooper bill she will then be obliged to put it to a vote in the commons, and the commons will accept it. Which will leave us with an end date of December 31st 2019 or March 31st 2020, but no fixed plan to end the deadlock.

Surely at that point she will be forced out of office, even if it requires tory MPs to march into Downing Street and physically pull her out kicking and screaming. If she refuses to go, Labour will table a VonC and win.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Apr 2019, 19:28

Cooper's bill is meaningless if the EU does not play ball and, if that happens, the UK leaves on WTO on the 12th. Short of revocation of A50, it is the EU that dictates any extension to the departure date. Also, don't count on a VonC winning. The recent YouGov poll and the recent by election result will be concentrating the minds of a fair few spineless MPs in the commons with one eye to winning their seat again.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 05 Apr 2019, 20:59

Little John wrote:Cooper's bill is meaningless if the EU does not play ball and, if that happens, the UK leaves on WTO on the 12th.

The EU will offer a long extension, I think. They will refuse May the short one she has requested. And she will be legally required to ask for a long one.

Also, don't count on a VonC winning. The recent YouGov poll and the recent by election result will be concentrating the minds of a fair few spineless MPs in the commons with one eye to winning their seat again.

It is possible the VonC will fail again. Pity the tory party if it does, though. They will be annihilated in both the EU and local elections. Another nine months of May "running" this country doesn't bear thinking about.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 05 Apr 2019, 23:57

Latest signs are:

1) talks between Labour and Tories are collapsing into a blame game.

2) French are leading a hard-line faction within the EU to kick us out within weeks.

3) the public prefer no deal to remain (outside London and Scotland)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... eal-brexit

I admit I had a brief wobble on my Hard Brexit call the last few days but things appear to be falling into place.

We will see!

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 06 Apr 2019, 00:28

Lord Beria3 wrote: I admit I had a brief wobble on my Hard Brexit call the last few days but things appear to be falling into place.

The final hurdle is always going to be a vote to revoke A50 to avoid 'no deal'. Those who want to vote for that will be able to justify it by saying it's only temporary and we can leave later once a plan has been properly agreed.

On the other hand, if May holds to her promise to bring a series of votes to parliament next week, I fully expect that the second-to-last vote will be 'no deal' vs 'revoke A50' followed by the last vote being 'no deal' vs 'May's deal'. By having the votes this way round, she'll reduce the 'revoke A50' votes by leaving one final way - her deal - to avoid no deal. MPs wont vote for the revoke option unless there's absolutely nothing else they can do.

It's all pure political power play at this point.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 06 Apr 2019, 00:32

UndercoverElephant wrote: It is possible the VonC will fail again. Pity the tory party if it does, though. They will be annihilated in both the EU and local elections. Another nine months of May "running" this country doesn't bear thinking about.

I'm not convinced the Tories are going to suffer too much unless they go into an election with May still leading. Even if Brexit fails entirely, with Boris at the helm, Tories will come back in droves.

And to think he only finally decided to support Leave on the eve of the referendum campaign. Remember when he had speeches prepared supporting both views because he hadn't decided whether to stab Cameron yet.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 06 Apr 2019, 00:46

Revoking Article 50 could be voted for by parliament but can the government ignore the vote? Just asking.

The Tories would be destroyed for a generation if they stopped Brexit.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/h ... ing-point/

I am not sure whether itâ€™s me or ministers who are the more naive.

Because last night I was persuaded by Cabinet sources a breakthrough was nigh in talks to resolve the Brexit deadlock between the Government and Labour.

But the talks are already on the verge of collapse â€“ with each side making charges it is the other side which is negotiating in poor faith.

Labour sources say the memorandum sent by the PM to Jeremy Corbyn this afternoon shows Theresa May has not shown the flexibility her colleagues expected.

Don't know the full details but these talks look like they are in real trouble.

The idea that Corbyn and May would take on their own parties to do a deal was always far fetched, given the tribal nature of our political system and the personalities involved.