Mexico's Cantarell production down 34% in one year

[SunnyJim]

I didn't mean you personally UCE.

I think it comes over each of us in waves. It takes quite some adjustment in point of view to really take on board how quickly things could move.

In some ways I have accepted it, but in others I still catch myself thinking in terms of 'temporary' steps to simply delay coming to terms with PO.

I mean how far do you take it? Should I sell the car now while it's worth something? Our family has two cars. One is ?300 60 mpg that is worth keeping until we can't afford to run it, and the other is ?2k's worth of small 4x4 that does 30 mpg. It was ?2k last year anyway. I use it to haul logs, wood, fencing etc. It is incredibly useful to me, but I know its only a 'stop gap'. Perhaps I'd be better to accept that in a few years it may be too uneconomical to run and sell it now while it's worth something. I could then put the money into a horse and cart! The thing is that just sounds bonkers! Swapping the convenience of a car for a horse and cart! It makes no sense to people, but if say in five years time we're looking at ?4 per litre for diesel (I just plucked that figure out the air) then having swapped the car for a horse and learned horse handling would look pretty sensible. In the context of my life time, I'm sure in 20 years time a horse and cart will be more use to me than a 30 mpg 4x4!

So, perhaps I should have been a bit more self critical and used myself as an example.

[biffvernon]

Nothing to do with geology then.

And the TRUTH shall set you FREE!!

Did someone say Americans don't do irony?

[Erik]

Cantarell is not Mexico's only oil production problem
Interesting analysis of Mexico's oil decline, with particular reference to the problems they are experiencing in the other two large fields, "the Chicontepec Basin and Ku-MaloobZaap [which] make up 72% of Mexico's non-Cantarell proven reserves". These two areas were expected to offset Cantarell's decline, but er... haven't done so 'yet'.

The author, who is among other things "a technical writer in the Homeland Security Department at San Diego State University", concludes:

Given the broad social, economic and political ramifications of declining oil production, it is difficult to fault government officials who hope for the best. Mexico has: (1) used its oil reserves as collateral for loans, (2) employed its oil profits to fund social programs, and (3) spent much of its increased wealth to develop a growing middle class with rising expectations. The grim reality of oil production decline, and the concomitant erosion of oil revenues, will take some time to filter through Mexico's national mindset.

[RevdTess]

Ku-Maloob-Zaap is easily my favourite oil field name.

Followed closely by Sausage in the north sea.

[snow hope]

Ah, so investment is the problem, nothing to do with Geology then...... So why has the North Sea oil declined almost 50% in the last 10 years? Is this also lack of investment too? (sigh.....)

[adam2]

declining oil production from existing fields is only partly due to geology, lack of investment certainly plays a part.
More sophisticated techniques that require additional investment dont of course magicly create more oil, but they do increase the % of the existing oil that can be extracted.
Higher prices make such investment more likely to be worthwhile.

I doubt that increased investment would actually increase production from canterell or the north sea, but I believe that the rate of decline could be slowed, at least for a few years.

The recent short term decline in oil prices has not encouraged investment, I would suspect that some oil producing countries wish to see a sustained price of say $150 before investing more.

Although figures from different sources vary a little, total world oil production appears to have been virtually static since 2005, it has certainly not dropped of a cliff as doomers predicted, neither has it grown much, if at all.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Ku-Maloob-Zaap is easily my favourite oil field name.

Followed closely by Sausage in the north sea.

Not a Sausage here!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oi ... _North_Sea

But there is a Dotty... ...Tess?

[RevdTess]

I may be mistaken. Maybe it's offshore Africa. I forget!

[clv101]

Once a decade update on Mexico. Now a net oil importer:
https://srsroccoreport.com/next-oil-dom ... -importer/

[vtsnowedin]

Once a decade update on Mexico. Now a net oil importer:
https://srsroccoreport.com/next-oil-dom ... -importer/

Things like that keep the peak oil discussion alive.
I wonder if oil gets scarce enough and high priced enough will powerful countries invade if necessary to put in place state of the art oil extraction technology to fill the gap between world demand and supply? I expect the answer to that is a resounding yes and anybody that wishes to stand in the way should dig a very deep fox hole.

[BritDownUnder]

Interesting to see about the Mexican situation and also the names of some of the earlier posters who have now left this forum. I wonder what they are up to now. Finished preparing perhaps?

In a lot of ways I agree with President Trump about building the wall. I think more effective employment regulations and enforcement in the US would also help.

[emordnilap]

Once a decade update on Mexico. Now a net oil importer:
https://srsroccoreport.com/next-oil-dom ... -importer/

Things like that keep the peak oil discussion alive.
I wonder if oil gets scarce enough and high priced enough will powerful countries invade if necessary to put in place state of the art oil extraction technology to fill the gap between world demand and supply? I expect the answer to that is a resounding yes and anybody that wishes to stand in the way should dig a very deep fox hole.

Indeed. You’re probably right. One of the reasons the US hasn’t invaded yet is they’re not so desperate. They will be one day.

[Vortex2]

They will be one day.

The final throw of the dice will be when we exploit the tar/oil sands in Venezuela.

[adam2]

With this and other depletion related news, I still find it very surprising that the oil price is not significantly higher than it is.

I forecast at least $100, and surpassing the previous peak of about $140 would not have surprised me.

In fact the actual price is only about $70.

[BritDownUnder]

With this and other depletion related news, I still find it very surprising that the oil price is not significantly higher than it is.

I forecast at least $100, and surpassing the previous peak of about $140 would not have surprised me.

In fact the actual price is only about $70.

I was inclined to think the same and agree with you but then I put my cynical hat on and thought of two possible reasons.

Possible Reason 1 - The world economy simply cannot take more than about $70 a barrel as with prices above that then the world economy crashes and demand is destroyed. Furthermore the US begins to make grain ethanol which begins a rise in food prices. This leads to lots of unhappy and hungry Arabs in Middle Eastern food importing regions who want to firstly overthrow and murder their leaders and then find and murder Westerners. Unfortunately for their leaders, who have power to set oil prices, it will probably be in that order. Hence the leaders set oil prices lower to avoid food crises and being murdered.

Possible Reason 2 - Those same hungry Arabs instead are 'persuaded' by their leaders to leave their countries and head for Europe. Arab oil price setters cut a deal with European leaders to keep the oil price low in return for Europe agreeing taking as 'immigrants' the 'excess' Arab population early before they become too hungry and murderous.

I suspect reality is a bit of both.