"Invest in gold NOW!" ... errr ... why?

MisterE · Post by **MisterE** » 10 Feb 2007, 23:54

Now we are talking, where do I get one from

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 10 Feb 2007, 23:56

Clever and witty reply Vortex, but for me alternative-energy has got it spot-on.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 11 Feb 2007, 08:09

alternative-energy wrote:There will be a slow re-adjustment of what society will regard as valuable.

You sound very confident in your predictions about the future. I tend to be a bit skeptic about people who claim certain knowledge about the future. Do you issue some guarantees? Humanity is in a situation we have never been in before, and making predictions seem like a rather risky business.

If you think gold have a place in a diverse portfolio, I think that razorblades also have a place. And salt.

Why bother having lifeboats and rafts on ferries? They are almost never used. In fact, most ferries never have to use the lifeboats during their entire existence, but nobody call anyone "anxious fool" because of the existence of unused lifeboats. For those few who does need them, on the other hand, everyone aboard were very happy they were there. Or at least the surviving few were happy.

I tell you what: Stocking up on things is a bit of a gut-wrenching experience. Shopping usually enhance the feeling of "normality" which most of us cling on to. Shopping for emergency supplies reduce the feeling of "normality", and most people just dont like such an experience.

alternative-energy · Post by **alternative-energy** » 11 Feb 2007, 10:00

Ha!
A golden gun and a golden razor blade... excellent!

Vortex wrote

I think that we are all agreeing in a funny sort of way.

Yes, you are probably right. My instinct would be to invest now to cover for inflation and stash later. Yours is probably to stash now.

Tell you what, if we make a gold to 'boot fair razor blade index' ratio then we track the price of the said items and see how they fair over the coming years... I'm game.

Gold is now at ?340 a oz, how many razor blades can you buy with that? I can see me popping into a boot fair to check... sad isn't it

Keela · Post by **Keela** » 11 Feb 2007, 14:41

MacG wrote:I tell you what: Stocking up on things is a bit of a gut-wrenching experience. Shopping usually enhance the feeling of "normality" which most of us cling on to. Shopping for emergency supplies reduce the feeling of "normality", and most people just dont like such an experience.

This is an interesting comment. Tying up hard earned cash in something that in times past was simply not necessary takes an change in mindset.

I certainly found that the first trip to C&Carry (knowing why we were doing it and so selecting long shelf life products) was a strange experience. Our second visit felt much more normal. Perhaps because we are actually using and rotating stuff from the store, but also because we had got used to the concept.

On the subject of gold, I wouldn't invest in gold right now simply because I believe paying off the morgage is more important.

I also regard as an investment any skilling up I and my family can do. Learning to garden effectively is a current priority, but paying for books etc is another form of investment.

Some-one said to keep a stash of cash in the house for short term chaotic situations - this too is something I am considering doing. I know it earns no interest, but I don't need to keep a big stash. But it would be silly to be totally dependant on cash machines always working.

For me therefore gold and indeed extra tradable consumables are considerably further down spending the line.

Some interesting points (and pictures

)

alternative-energy · Post by **alternative-energy** » 11 Feb 2007, 17:52

FROM BLADEMAIL
http://www.blademail.co.uk/acatalog/Bic_Twin.html

Bic Twin Easy sensitive 10 pack
The sensitive skin shaver for twin-blade users who want a close and precise shave

Twin-blade for a close and comfortable shave

A slim head to help shave those ?hard-to-reach? areas

Longer handle for better maneuverability and control

Price (UK?): ?1.99

So one razor costs 19.9p (lets call it 20p for ease).
So future calculations would be
Price of 1 oz of gold ?340 (London spot) / price of a single razor ( blademail bic twin easy)
Currently Ratio is 1 : 1700
Wow that's a lot of razors!!

Vortex. If you agree this we can have little fun over the coming months by tracking it. What you ya think?

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 11 Feb 2007, 20:47

I think we have a number of issues mixed up in here. My views are :-

1. As an investment to make money, I would suggest gold is a very good bet. It would not surprise me if Gold was worth $2,000/oz (currently about $650) in the near future, say 2 or 3 years. If the financial markets crash as I expect, then this is a strong likelihood.

2. I have often argued that "you can't eat gold" - when the SHTF and if society really does crumble as could occur in a worst case scenario, I would much rather have food, water and shelter than any amount of gold.

3. I don't have any gold and I do have lots of debts - mortgage, loans, etc. but I can see a situation when it might be a clever choice to buy gold for a quick killing to make enough to pay off a mortgage for instance. This is a risky choice, but will pay off (imo) if you have the balls to hold out over the ups and downs. I will keep this option open and will probably miss the boat and end up saying, if only I had had the balls to follow my convictions.....

4. I am not really interested in storing wealth for the long term, but I admit I might have a different opinion if I had ?100,000 sitting on deposit in a bank.

Now don't give me too hard a time for the above....

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 11 Feb 2007, 20:56

snow hope wrote:4. I am not really interested in storing wealth for the long term, but I admit I might have a different opinion if I had ?100,000 sitting on deposit in a bank.

Good.

Nobody can store real wealth for very long in The Real World. All the stuff wee need to survive and thrive is in constant decay and has to be created from scratch again and again and again. Food decay, clothes decay and houses decay.

The idea of "storing wealth" is just some delusional form of collective hypnosis which require a functioning society to be maintained.

alternative-energy · Post by **alternative-energy** » 11 Feb 2007, 21:22

Nobody can store real wealth for very long in The Real World
The idea of "storing wealth" is just some delusional form of collective hypnosis which require a functioning society to be maintained.

Ok take this senerio. A Roman centurion seeing the end of the empire decides to store his wealth for his future progeny.
He doesnt really know when his future generation will need his wealth. So he collects a number of items salt, gold, silver, sandles, the deeds for the house, a painting, some fine silk , a sword etc. He places them in a box in the ground and a map is made. This map is handed down through the generations each successive generation knows that if times are bad they can dig up the box and they will benefit from their ancestors foresight.

Which items will be worth most at any given time in the next 2000 years? Which items will have perished, rotted, blunted etc.
Perhaps the box is not strong enough and this too decays.
Which items can still be retreived? Archaeology aside, which will be still worth the most on the open market at any given time?
I think we all know what the answer is.

Is 2000 years enough time in the real world?

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 11 Feb 2007, 21:45

alternative-energy wrote:
Nobody can store real wealth for very long in The Real World
The idea of "storing wealth" is just some delusional form of collective hypnosis which require a functioning society to be maintained.
Ok take this senerio. A Roman centurion seeing the end of the empire decides to store his wealth for his future progeny.
He doesnt really know when his future generation will need his wealth. So he collects a number of items salt, gold, silver, sandles, the deeds for the house, a painting, some fine silk , a sword etc. He places them in a box in the ground and a map is made. This map is handed down through the generations each successive generation knows that if times are bad they can dig up the box and they will benefit from their ancestors foresight.

Which items will be worth most at any given time in the next 2000 years? Which items will have perished, rotted, blunted etc.
Perhaps the box is not strong enough and this too decays.
Which items can still be retreived? Archaeology aside, which will be still worth the most on the open market at any given time?
I think we all know what the answer is.

Is 2000 years enough time in the real world?

You dont know crap about life in the afterlife of the Roman Empire. Neither do I. But at least I understand that I dont know crap about it.

Adolescent fantasies. Phfew!

alternative-energy · Post by **alternative-energy** » 11 Feb 2007, 22:03

Sorry, this wasnt meant to be a historical record of what actually happened at the end of the Roman Empire: it was a thought experiment to highlight the appeal of gold and silver through the ages.
Perhaps is has lost something in translation, still I think your response was a little rude.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 11 Feb 2007, 22:22

alternative-energy wrote:Sorry, this wasnt meant to be a historical record of what actually happened at the end of the Roman Empire: it was a thought experiment to highlight the appeal of gold and silver through the ages.
Perhaps is has lost something in translation, still I think your response was a little rude.

Agree. I was a bit rude. But just a bit. And I was a bit entitled to be a bit rude.

Better rude than dead. Anyone? Darwin dont negotiate. Either you are dead or not dead. Rude or not rude dont matter that much if you are dead. Might matter a bit if you are not dead, but just a bit.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 12 Feb 2007, 01:29

MacG, I think you are being unfair to alternative-energy. I agree with the point a-e made and I don't understand what point you are making.

The point that a-e is making is that gold lasts through the centuries and retains value. Despite you aserting that "nobody can store real wealth for very long". Now what the heck is wrong with that fact??

The point is that IF somebody chose to bury a box with gold in it for their future generations it would retain and indeed multiply in value to whatever currency pertained at the time.

I really can't see what the problem is with that statement. Can you clarify your line of argument?

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 12 Feb 2007, 07:06

snow hope wrote:MacG, I think you are being unfair to alternative-energy. I agree with the point a-e made and I don't understand what point you are making.

The point that a-e is making is that gold lasts through the centuries and retains value. Despite you aserting that "nobody can store real wealth for very long". Now what the heck is wrong with that fact??

The point is that IF somebody chose to bury a box with gold in it for their future generations it would retain and indeed multiply in value to whatever currency pertained at the time.

I really can't see what the problem is with that statement. Can you clarify your line of argument?

Gold is pretty much useless and of no practical value. You cant eat it and it cant keep you warm. The only value it might have is the value people put on it for strange fetishistic reasons. I dont see any guarantees that people will stick with such delusions forever.

The only situation where people assign "value" to gold is when there is a stratified civilisation where the upper classes want to manifest their superior status and demonstrate affluence by showing off with gold. Scarce but utterly useless.

On a sidenote, if you would try to buy a full tank of gas and offer to pay with a krugerrand, you would probably just be stared at. Even as the kruger is worth eight times the full tank.

I think that this "buy gold" encountered on PeakOil sites is invented by people without skills who desperately try to find something to do about their miserable situation. I would suggest taking up shoe repair as a hobby instead. Or sewing. Or gardening.

Bozzio · Post by **Bozzio** » 12 Feb 2007, 08:44

The problem with gold for us Europeans is that historically and culturally it has less significance as a measure of wealth and as a trading medium than to the people of, say, the East. Now if we were all based in Asia then to buy stocks of gold might have some validity but in the UK or Scandinavia it will have less impact. We don't tend to fill our teeth with gold in this country and even if we did it would probably be seen as a fashion statement rather than a way of holding one's assets.

For me, I'd rather exchange labour for something I may want. At least such a trade should remain a reasonsably friendly affair without arrousing suspicion that I am wealthy and therefore a target for robbery.