Will "islands" of high-tech exist in 200 years?

[Vortex]

Many end-of-the-world types seem to predict a Mad Max wasteland in 50 or 100 years times.

I don't quite see this: surely we (err - THEY) will maintain isolated high tech communities for ever and a day?

I can imagine small towns or rural university campuses (if sufficiently well protected) surviving for ever.

Worst case, a small handful of families with hidden cellars could keep PCs plus huge DVD and CD collections going for maybe 200 years.

We COULD lose a lot of knowledge ... BUT .. huge amounts WILL be retained.

Hubble photos, DNA technology, software tools, medical guides etc will survive for many, many years.

Once any great Dieoff has subsided the survivors WILL have enough knowledge to work with. The dregs of oil & coal will be enough to sustain them for a long time I suspect.

So ... will our civilisation end in the same way as many others, and simply disappear ... or will we leave enough behind to help those who follow?

[simonrichards912]

Vortex,

No I don't share your optimism. Science and technology has developed since the Middle Ages because clever people were able to devote their time to making observations, postulating theories.... and the rest is history. The point I wish to make is that these people could do this because they didn't have to spend their time working hand-to-mouth just to feed themselves and their families. There will always be clever people who will be able to improve the lives of those around them. However our society is based on a science and technology edifice which if you take away the foundations, i.e modern industrial agriculture, the whole lot will fall like a house of cards.

[EmptyBee]

Ever read the essay I, Pencil?

I think the possibility of the trappings of complex civilisation enduring in fragments or isolated pockets following a societal collapse is remote. Once you take into consideration the web of commerce necessary to produce the humble pencil I think the future for computers and silicon chips looks rather bleak in such a scenario.

[Vortex]

Ever read the essay I, Pencil?

I think the possibility of the trappings of complex civilisation enduring in fragments or isolated pockets following a societal collapse is remote. Once you take into consideration the web of commerce necessary to produce the humble pencil I think the future for computers and silicon chips looks rather bleak in such a scenario.

Perhaps society for 90% of the population WILL go away at some point ... but maybe 10% of most people / skills / things could survive?

5% or 10% of the world is STILL a huge amount of people, factories & resources.

Sure, you will lose many skills such as stained-glass window restorers ... but retaining 10% of most key people and systems MIGHT be doable with a lot of - err - "social persuasion" & subterfuge.

For example say New Zealand could be deemed a "redoubt".
I can imagine the elite and their soldiers doing quite well for a long while.
They would of course have to loot lots of goodies from the rest of the world to put in storehouses. Once the smoke had cleared they could then send out expeditions to loot stuff from all over the world before it rusted away.

[MacG]

For example say New Zealand could be deemed a "redoubt".

I'm a bit worried about volcanic activity in NZ. The entire place seem to have a tendency to blow up completely from time to time.

[isenhand]

I think whether or not any resemblance of hi-tech survives any potential collapse depends on what we do before any such collapse happens. It really comes down to what kind of future do you want given the limits we have? And then working towards that kind of future. If the future you want is hi-tech then you need to think about what that society will look like and then how you could achieve such a society.

Personally, I doubt we would maintain isolated pockets of hi-tech for long. Hi-tech by its very nature requires a network of expertise to support it.

BTW, just as aside, who can keep a modern computer running for more than 3 years without having to repair it, never mind 200 years? Most modern electronic devices are designed to fail after a few years.

[jonny2mad]

It depends on what you think of as high tech I would think the ability to make things like guns bombs would survive for quite a while maybe more primitive guns as things like primers could be hard to make, but I could see flintlocks surviving.

I have some machine tools lathes some hand operated ones and blacksmithing tools and I think I could make most types of firearms on them at a pinch

If you have a source of metal you can make lathes and most of your own tools, you can operate a treadle metal working lathe with just foot power and there are quite a few people who still have these tools around the world.

So I think the sorts of things made by a model engineer but in larger versions will still be made.

You do have to factor in the effects of war and anarchy killing off people who can make things, but having better weapons gives even small groups I would say a survival advantage so they would try to protect people who can make things for the community.

I could see lots of engineers and scientists surviving if they were able to adapt and understood how to make things using basic tools and scrap materials

Personally I don?t see society collapsing to that extent but if it did I think much of our knowledge would survive , you have books all over the world even if most of them were destroyed I think some would survive .

some computers would last a while but I think books are more likely to survive , it may be hard to make a modern pencil , but its not that hard to make ink and a quill pen and paper