Are we on the brink of an electric car revolution?

[emordnilap]

Interesting piece with some useful info. on the phase-out of fossil-fuelled vehicles here.

This phase-out looks wildly optimistic in addition to being too late.

[woodburner]

Could be a disappointment when they cannot provide the electrical systems for the proposed alternatives.

[kenneal - lagger]

Almost as important as phasing out fossil fuelled transport by 2050 is phasing out most private transport well before that date. It should be replaced by a mixture of working from home and the use of shared and on call lightweight, autonomous, driverless electric vehicles. An increase in the roll out of trams and trolley buses is long overdue.

[Pepperman]

Agreed on the working from home front. We should move towards compelling companies to facilitate home working where appropriate.

Most of the heavy lifting will come from cycling, walking and public transport though I think, rather than AVs. And I'm not sure trams and trolley buses make sense in an era of low cost batteries - too much infrastructure needed.

I think AVs could be of most benefit in rural contexts where public transport isn't really viable. Rural roads are the most challenging environment for AVs though so I don't expect anything along those lines for decades. I just can't see the point of AVs in urban or commuter contexts. There are much more efficient options for urban situations and the peak demands for commuter operations mean that you'll need to have a load of AVs sitting around doing nothing most of the time.

[Potemkin Villager]

The battery question just will not go away.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium ... ent-impact

[kenneal - lagger]

...... peak demands for commuter operations mean that you'll need to have a load of AVs sitting around doing nothing most of the time.

We do that at the moment with commuter buses and trains.

[Catweazle]

There are much more efficient options for urban situations and the peak demands for commuter operations mean that you'll need to have a load of AVs sitting around doing nothing most of the time.

Sitting around charging, or perhaps putting energy back into the grid for the morning kettle-surge after charging all night.

[emordnilap]

Are we on the brink of an electric car revolution?

This BBC article is saying a most definite 'yes' with the addition of autonomous vehicles.

The logical next step will be for human beings to be banned from driving cars at all because they pose such a risk to other road users.

[adam2]

I expect a steady shift towards electric vehicles over about 20 years.

FF vehicles are still being produced in vast numbers and have an economic life of 10 to 25 years, I very much doubt that significant numbers of these FF vehicles will be scrapped before the end of their "natural" lives.

With a gradual shift towards EVs, providing enough electricity should be doable.

I doubt that self driving vehicles will become as popular as quickly as is being forecast.
No matter how safe they may be, the great British public and the legal system are not yet ready for this innovation.

Child killed by manually driven vehicle-----------"Oh no, what a terrible accident".

Child killed by self driving vehicle-------"my baby was killed by the wicked fat-cat corporation that designed the car. The directors should be imprisoned, and made to pay millions in compensation"

Society is very tolerant of accidents caused by driving, it is often considered that no one is criminally liable "accidents happen" and even in clear cases of driver error such as excessive speed the penalties are restrained.
A certain amount of "there went I, but for the grace of God" mentality no doubt.
I doubt that society would extend such leniency to self driving cars built by a large and faceless organisation with deep pockets.

[emordnilap]

I doubt that society would extend such leniency to self driving cars built by a large and faceless organisation with deep pockets.

True.

Some of the failures by autonomous vehicles in which people are injured or killed could be adjusted for over time.

There are going to be rare instances of moral judgements having to be made, as discussed earlier in another thread. But politicians and corporations are going to point to any and all reductions in incidents as a Good Thing.

If overall deaths on roads are reduced, this will be a main argument in profit's favour.

[vtsnowedin]

I expect a steady shift towards electric vehicles over about 20 years.

FF vehicles are still being produced in vast numbers and have an economic life of 10 to 25 years, I very much doubt that significant numbers of these FF vehicles will be scrapped before the end of their "natural" lives.

With a gradual shift towards EVs, providing enough electricity should be doable.

I doubt that self driving vehicles will become as popular as quickly as is being forecast.
No matter how safe they may be, the great British public and the legal system are not yet ready for this innovation........
...........

I agree with you on that.
Part of the transition will be increased driver assist to the point where you ask the car the best route and speed to avoid traffic lights and the car warns you (And gets off the gas and on the brakes) when an animal or pedestrian enters your danger zone. It will also communicate with the car behind you so that car doesn't ram you up the butt. An advanced system would have the cars both human and AI driven ones communicated so hazards such as icy spots were known by every car following the first one to cross it. Hooked to the plow truck it might even improve treatment times.
But as you said these things will take years to both arrive and to be accepted.

[vtsnowedin]

I just came across an ad for the Rivian electric pickup truck which you can pre order now (in the USA at least) for a projected 2020 production start. They have test vehicles wearing Ford F150 sheet metal driving around Detroit now.
At $69K to start it is a bit steep for me and I would not want the four door configuration that is the only model shown. But perhaps in a few years when my present ICE pickup wears out and these have a proven track record.
https://products.rivian.com/

Please Note: Preorders require a deposit of $1,000. Production will begin in 2020. Fully-equipped vehicles with the highest performance level and largest battery pack will enter production first. Our 180 kWh and 135 kWh packs will be available at launch with the 105 kWh to follow in 2021. You can cancel your preorder and receive a full refund at anytime by sending an email to preorders@rivian.com. Rivian will execute your refund within 3 business days. Depending on your bank, you may not be able to access the refunded amount for up to 7 days.

It says it can wade through a full meter of water so might do alright in the spring mud here.
What do you think.

[adam2]

Whilst it sounds attractive, I would be a little reluctant to pre-order.
By the time that vehicle is available to purchase and drive away, I consider it probable that better or cheaper alternatives might be available.

Possibly comparable to pre ordering a petrol vehicle in 1910, for collection nearly two years later, by which time the potentially better or cheaper 1912 model might be available.

A 180 Kwh battery pack is going to need some serious charging input, or a lot of patience.
A UK "fast" charger with a 7Kw input is going to take over 24 hours to fully charge it.
Faster chargers are of course available, but even an 80 Kw charger as has been proposed for motorway filling stations will take well over two hours.
Charging from a domestic outlet via a "granny lead" will take half a week !

[clv101]

...A 180 Kwh battery pack...

Is freaking ridiculous! The problem isn't the battery isn't the whole concept of using a three tonne truck to carry a 160lb person to the local store to buy a gallon of milk.

[adam2]

I can see the demand for such a vehicle for both work and for leisure activities that involve transporting a lot of equipment.

Perhaps they ought to come with a free electric bicycle for fetching milk from the local store.