the frack thread

How will oil depletion affect the way we live? What will the economic impact be? How will agriculture change? Will we thrive or merely survive?

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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Fracking temporarily suspended for third time as micro quakes are triggered. I expect the government to relax the regulations in the next few days on the intensity of quake which requires fracking to stop.

a 0.8 quake is about the same as a car passing 100m away (my guess). Previously a 4.0 (?) quake was triggered, which is about a heavy truck at 10 metres (again, my guess)

These small quakes seem like the least significant reason to halt fracking, but I can think of far more important reasons that this government runs rough-shod over.
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Post by fuzzy »

We had a 4 quake in Leicestershire about 8 years ago and there was the odd bit of building damage - tiles etc. I was lying down at the time and the bed definitely shook [not due to my efforts!]

OK 16 years ago:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... itain.html
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Post by RenewableCandy »

I think there's been one since: Market Weighton, 2007 or 8 or 9, can't remember. It was in the middle of the night - the evening had been windy but the night was still. The quake woke me, I thought it was wind buffeting our house (the bedroom faces west), till I realised how quiet it was.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

I felt a quake in Worcestershire back in the 1980s. About 6am, it woke me because things were rattling on the shelves.
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Post by raspberry-blower »

Naked Capitalism: Fracking in 2018: Another Year of Pretending to Make Money

Includes this gem:
However, Reuters recently analyzed 32 fracking companies and declared that “U.S. shale firms are more profitable than ever after a strong third quarter.� How is this possible?

Reading a bit further reveals what Reuters considers “profits.�

“The group’s cash flow deficit has narrowed to $945 million as U.S.benchmark crude hit $70 a barrel and production soared,� reported Reuters.
The delusion is getting ever more palpable - particularly now with slumping oil prices coupled with the Fed raising rates incrementally
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

And there’s all this talk of the US being a major oil producer, Trump’s cawing about the strength of the economy etc. plus unreal debt, most of it in dollars.

A major reset is imminent.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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Post by raspberry-blower »

emordnilap wrote:And there’s all this talk of the US being a major oil producer, Trump’s cawing about the strength of the economy etc. plus unreal debt, most of it in dollars.

A major reset is imminent.
Chris Martenson agrees with you on that:
Chris Martenson wrote: Beyond the significance of not having an energy strategy, there’s the more immediate predicament of how a nation up to its armpits in debt, and sinking rapidly, is going to fare when the great output boom stops and then heads into reverse.

High levels of debt and rising energy costs are a terrible combination.

We’re placing that collision within the next three years. Are you prepared for that?

As things stand, the US will blunder into that new era completely unprepared, as one might expect for a nation in decline.
Peak Prospertity: The Shale Oil Revolution Actually Reflects a Nation in Decline
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

Lovely. Look forward to that.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

Justin Mikulka: Are investors finally waking up to North America's Fracked Gas Crisis?
The North American natural gas industry is facing a crisis with an oversupplied market and producers that are losing money. Those producers desperately need higher natural gas prices.

However, higher gas prices mean renewables become even more attractive to investors, which may lead to gas following in the footsteps of coal — dying at the hands of the free market.

It may take some time, but eventually investors wake up — or run out of money
This is the result of interest rates at being virtually zero for over a decade.
Fracking companies still can't make ends meet and almost certainly, never will.
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

raspberry-blower wrote:Justin Mikulka: Are investors finally waking up to North America's Fracked Gas Crisis?
The North American natural gas industry is facing a crisis with an oversupplied market and producers that are losing money. Those producers desperately need higher natural gas prices.

However, higher gas prices mean renewables become even more attractive to investors, which may lead to gas following in the footsteps of coal — dying at the hands of the free market.

It may take some time, but eventually investors wake up — or run out of money
This is the result of interest rates at being virtually zero for over a decade.
Fracking companies still can't make ends meet and almost certainly, never will.
I think you should consider the source there and look further.
For example Exxon the no. 2 gas producer has annual revenues of 71 billion and long term debt of 34 billion and that number is declining while dividends have been kept high. Hardly a company in distress. Recent low oil and gas prices have tightened margins and some small companies will not survive but the big dogs will as usual win out in the end.
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Post by raspberry-blower »

vtsnowedin wrote: I think you should consider the source there and look further.
For example Exxon the no. 2 gas producer has annual revenues of 71 billion and long term debt of 34 billion and that number is declining while dividends have been kept high. Hardly a company in distress. Recent low oil and gas prices have tightened margins and some small companies will not survive but the big dogs will as usual win out in the end.
VT you are making a false analogy here.
The Desmog article is primarily concerned about companies that use fracking as their primary method to collect oil or gas.
ExxonMobil do not rely on fracking as their PRIMARY method of hydrocarbon extraction - they have been sniffing around for "distressed assets" in the fracking sector, though.

The Big Oil Cos are in a far stronger position to weather any storm than the fracking fly-by-nights that have never made a nickel profit in their entire wretched existance
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

raspberry-blower wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: I think you should consider the source there and look further.
For example Exxon the no. 2 gas producer has annual revenues of 71 billion and long term debt of 34 billion and that number is declining while dividends have been kept high. Hardly a company in distress. Recent low oil and gas prices have tightened margins and some small companies will not survive but the big dogs will as usual win out in the end.
VT you are making a false analogy here.
The Desmog article is primarily concerned about companies that use fracking as their primary method to collect oil or gas.
ExxonMobil do not rely on fracking as their PRIMARY method of hydrocarbon extraction - they have been sniffing around for "distressed assets" in the fracking sector, though.

The Big Oil Cos are in a far stronger position to weather any storm than the fracking fly-by-nights that have never made a nickel profit in their entire wretched existance
What are you smoking? Exxon is the number two producer of natural gas in the US, perhaps the world.
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Post by fuzzy »

Presumably the fracking is done by 'frackers -r- us' out of yellow pages. These are the guys [sub contractors] who take the hit, not Exxon.
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

The 1990 Bishop's Castle earthquake was about level 5.

I was working in a first floor office at a shopping mall in Redditch at the time.

I first thought that some moron had crept up behind me and was shaking my chair as a joke.

I then turned round and saw the vertical panels in the corridor behind me rippling backwards and forwards.

At that point I assumed that the IRA had set of a bomb in the shops below.

Strangely people walking around didn't notice the shock ... only those sitting down were affected.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

fuzzy wrote:Presumably the fracking is done by 'frackers -r- us' out of yellow pages. These are the guys [sub contractors] who take the hit, not Exxon.
Sooner or later all costs are covered by the sale price of the gas being delivered. That the supply continues and is even growing shows that overall it is a profitable business.
There are of course various stock scams that rip off foolish investors etc. but the idea that every firm small or large engaged in fracking gas and oil production is losing money is ridiculous.
If a big firm like Exxon subs out a process like fracking it relies on that sub to not only frack this years wells but needs them to still be in business next year for next years wells. Exxon has to pay them a living wage as it were.
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