Brexit process

[fuzzy]

The writing was on the wall for the EU when they started with the Strasbourg/Brussels BS thing back in the common market days.

A post from Jason that could fit this thread like a glove. I don't know if he is a member here?

http://22billionenergyslaves.blogspot.c ... or-eu.html

[stumuz1]

An excellent summary of the manufactured gordian knot.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... n-all.html

Great article by Dan.

As he says public opinion is shifting towards no deal brexit. 45 per cent wto Brexit in recent survey.

Mass applause every week on qt to a Hard Brexit.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... n-all.html

Great article by Dan.

As he says public opinion is shifting towards no deal brexit. 45 per cent wto Brexit in recent survey.

Mass applause every week on qt to a Hard Brexit.

Yes, more and more people are concluding we need to just walk away from this process and start again. The alternatives - cancelling brexit or agreeing to May's unreformed deal - are both clearly worse. The problem is that almost nobody wants May's deal. She has not secured the support of any meaningful centre ground. Her plan was to to mop up refugees from both sides, her deal being the equivalent of a valley that everything ran down into. But she's actually brought back a hill, which everything runs down the sides of and away towards no brexit and no deal.

I would now put the probability of no deal at 90%, a general election at 9%, all other outcomes 1%.

[clv101]

I would now put the probability of no deal at 90%, a general election at 9%, all other outcomes 1%.

Wow, that's quite a statement.

Earlier I pegged no deal at 5%, I'm hardening against it now, only 1% chance of no deal on 29th March (okay it might technically be no deal on the 29th but with a modified withdrawal agreement in place within a fortnight but I'm not counting that as no deal). I'm around 50/50 for modified withdrawal agreement on 29th (or within a fortnight) and extension (which might involve a GE).

From Peston today:

"Here is what members of the cabinet said to me when I pointed them towards the statement made in the Sunday Telegraph by the prime minister that she is "determined to deliver Brexit and determined to deliver on time - on March 29 2019".

"Farcical" said one. "Total delusion" said another. "Verifiably untrue" said a third.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... n-all.html

Great article by Dan.

As he says public opinion is shifting towards no deal brexit. 45 per cent wto Brexit in recent survey.

Mass applause every week on qt to a Hard Brexit.

Get yerself a bit of this, Beria!

http://www.econpol.eu/sites/default/fil ... Brexit.pdf

[Lord Beria3]

Sounds reasonable UE. Ambrose wrote up something on this recently in the Torygraph.

[Potemkin Villager]

Much echo in any confirmation bias chamber.

[RevdTess]

Much echo in any confirmation bias chamber.

Yes, I think our echo chambers are sending us all off in wildly different expectations at the moment. That's why I'm finding PS so helpful to understand the hopes and fears of the other perspectives.

It reminds me a bit of advice we used to receive when trading - always take more notice of the views of people who are trading in the opposite direction to you, and whatever trade you want to make, think about how you would be feeling if you had the opposite trade on right now.

So if I really wanted No Deal, or a deal without backstops at least, how confident would i feel? Or if I wanted a 2nd referendum, or a customs union deal, how confident would I feel?

(As a 2nd ref supporter I don't feel much hope for that at the moment. But I do feel hope that No Deal will be avoided since there's several plausible ways I could still see that happening. Ultimately I think someone will blink. And if no one blinks then I still see a 2nd ref as more likely than No Deal because of the votes in parliament. Therefore if I wanted No Deal I'd be very nervous of letting the clock run down.)

[Mark]

Granted, some people said that, but many others put a different spin on it. You know that, but you only want to see your version of Brexit - see above
The additional issue was that no country has done this before, so there's no blueprint/model to follow. All this is new ground.
I'm sure many other countries/parties are watching this very closely.

As I said, you are a liar.

Charming as ever LJ..., ever wondered why very few people visit/post on here ?

You are basically saying that 52% voted for a Hard Brexit - I disagree
See, I can disagree with you without resorting to nasty personal slander...

[Mark]

Much echo in any confirmation bias chamber.

Yes, I think our echo chambers are sending us all off in wildly different expectations at the moment. That's why I'm finding PS so helpful to understand the hopes and fears of the other perspectives.

It reminds me a bit of advice we used to receive when trading - always take more notice of the views of people who are trading in the opposite direction to you, and whatever trade you want to make, think about how you would be feeling if you had the opposite trade on right now.

So if I really wanted No Deal, or a deal without backstops at least, how confident would i feel? Or if I wanted a 2nd referendum, or a customs union deal, how confident would I feel?

(As a 2nd ref supporter I don't feel much hope for that at the moment. But I do feel hope that No Deal will be avoided since there's several plausible ways I could still see that happening. Ultimately I think someone will blink. And if no one blinks then I still see a 2nd ref as more likely than No Deal because of the votes in parliament. Therefore if I wanted No Deal I'd be very nervous of letting the clock run down.)

Agree with this.
In my experience, Hard Brexiteers are motivated by Politics only, with little/no consideration for the Economic impact.

Every day seems to bring more evidence of what's to come:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47107561

[kenneal - lagger]

I'm concerned with the economics of staying in an institution that is falling apart at the seams. Germany, the major player in the eurozone is going into recession, Italy's banks are essentially bankrupt as are Greece's and about to pull the rest of the Eurozone down with them, there's major unemployment, especially among youth, throughout the EU and the whole banking system is set up to support the German economy and Germany alone!

What do Remainers say about that? Nothing, not a word! Heads in the sand and bellowing through their arses about a small setback in UKs figures until we get set up properly in the outside world.

[RevdTess]

Great article by Dan. As he says public opinion is shifting towards no deal brexit. 45 per cent wto Brexit in recent survey.

Mass applause every week on qt to a Hard Brexit.

Or, from the other echo chamber, public opinion constantly swinging further away from Brexit:

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-clo ... ?r=US&IR=T

[stumuz1]

Agree with this.
In my experience, Hard Brexiteers are motivated by Politics only, with little/no consideration for the Economic impact.

Every day seems to bring more evidence of what's to come:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47107561

Two points to counter your blatant propaganda.

First. The X-trail is more to do with German and French criminality in hoodwinking politicians into accepting diesels as a green solution. Fact: diesels are killers in an urban environment and cause externalised health costs that we will all be paying for many years from now.

Second. If Brexit was even a scintilla of a reason for not building them anymore, then which EU country is getting the Brexit spoils?.... Japan.

Mark, your mono theism really is clouding your judgement.

[Mark]

Agree with this.
In my experience, Hard Brexiteers are motivated by Politics only, with little/no consideration for the Economic impact.

Every day seems to bring more evidence of what's to come:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47107561

Two points to counter your blatant propaganda.

First. The X-trail is more to do with German and French criminality in hoodwinking politicians into accepting diesels as a green solution. Fact: diesels are killers in an urban environment and cause externalised health costs that we will all be paying for many years from now.

Second. If Brexit was even a scintilla of a reason for not building them anymore, then which EU country is getting the Brexit spoils?.... Japan.

Mark, your mono theism really is clouding your judgement.

1. It's not MY blatant propaganda
2. Totally agree with your point on diesel. My point was that many Japanese/US/Chinese etc. companies have located in the UK over the years at least in part to access the single market. Probably no difference in the short term following Brexit, but I predict that in the medium/long term, some will relocate to EU27 and there will be a significant reduction in future investment. If we're a '3rd country', some may also relocate back to the 'motherland' as in this example. These foreign companies employ significant numbers of people.

Hard Brexiteers seem to think there's some latent UK industry, bursting to conquer the world once they're released from all those nasty EU rules....
The reality is that many UK businesses are actually foreign owned and we'll have just as many rules/regulations once we leave - in fact probably more...

Of course, these are only my opinions, so I could be wrong....