Brexit process

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 30 Jan 2019, 01:32

It is hard to sort this all out from this far away. I'm surprised at the level of concern about having a full deal in place on exit day. It is not as if any sticking point that appears after the exit could not be negotiated when the issue comes up. After all peace, tranquility and prosperity is in the interest of all parties at all times.
Or are things little better then when Napoleon was tramping around Europe?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 30 Jan 2019, 07:06

All of the noise is being made by a load of rich people who can see the terms of the game are not under their direct control anymore and they don't like it. At the same time, another load of rich people are busy positioning themselves to take advantage of the potentially new game that is afoot.

Meanwhile, ordinary people are being shat on. As usual.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 30 Jan 2019, 08:40

Agree.

Shorterned version of Eurointelligence out in the morning... full briefing at 12.

https://www.eurointelligence.com

No Brexit is off the table

It was the night when Brexit revocation and the second referendum were taken off the table. We are about to confront the binary choice parliament always intended to avoid: between a feasible deal and no deal. The probability of no-deal Brexit is high, and rising.

The journalist Stephen Bush made the obvious but nevertheless important point in the Spectator last night that, if parliament cannot even find a majority to extend Art. 50 by three months, how will they find a majority for a second referendum? The Cooper amendment did not clear the 300-vote mark last night.

The Second Referendum crowd gambled everything and have lost. The no-deal/WTO crowd are still in the running but my money is still on a modified 11th hour deal getting through (with a technical extension to pass the various parliaments in the EU).

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/e ... prevent-it

So whatâ€™s going to give? As the cliff-edge gets closer, MPs will have to focus in on how to prevent no deal; but the reality is that a Parliament that is hesitant even to delay Brexit when the cliff-edge is a little over 50 days away is not going to stop Brexit anytime soon.

What feels likeliest now is that Parliamentâ€™s desire to avoid a no deal Brexit means that it ends up voting for something that looks an awfully lot like Mayâ€™s deal. The only open question is whether or not Jeremy Corbyn can succeed in retaining Britainâ€™s membership of the customs union after Brexit.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 30 Jan 2019, 12:36

https://eqr.berenberg.de/showdoc/ial/86 ... 34384?cs=1

Berenberg now saying that no deal Brexit risks have sharpened to 30%.

A Labour style Brexit with UK remaining within the customs union remains the 2nd most likely outcome.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 30 Jan 2019, 13:22

What feels likeliest now is that Parliamentâ€™s desire to avoid a no deal Brexit means that it ends up voting for something that looks an awfully lot like Mayâ€™s deal. The only open question is whether or not Jeremy Corbyn can succeed in retaining Britainâ€™s membership of the customs union after Brexit.

Seems realistic.

Brexiteers clearly hope and expect that the EU will blink to avoid No Deal.

I suspect that the EU will refuse to blink, Labour will try to corner May into going with a customs union but this will fail. Then at the last minute, Labour will vote for May's deal to avoid No Deal. That's my forecast right now anyway.

I don't believe Labour/SNP/LibDems will prefer No Deal over May's deal when it comes down to the wire. They will surely try to get some sort of minor concession from May then vote for her deal.

And then there's two more years of trade negotiations while everything else goes back into limbo again. I think that would be the easier bit though.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 30 Jan 2019, 17:18

If Labour MP's. or Tory ones for that matter, think that voting through May's shitty "deal", as it stands, with the Irish backstop intact and where the UK is tied into that arrangement until and unless the EU says it can leave will not result dire consequences in this country, they are insane.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 30 Jan 2019, 17:33

Hmmm .. I don't recollect for voting for Stay in EU or Leave EU but with a 'deal' which ties the UK to the EU.

I certainly don't recollect voting for a deal with a toad (the NI lock) attached.

Our Betters no doubt wlil get the Toad killed or turned into a Princess ... and we will be told:
"Look at what greatness we have achieved. We now have a decent deal"

In sales this is called the 'presumptive close' ... Does Sir want the suit in black or grey? The question should have been 'Does Sir want to buy a suit?"

Mark · Post by **Mark** » 30 Jan 2019, 18:18

Vortex2 wrote:Hmmm .. I don't recollect for voting for Stay in EU or Leave EU but with a 'deal' which ties the UK to the EU.

& therein lies the problem...., the Referendum was so ill defined....
Although Mrs May says that 'Brexit means Brexit', there are many shades of Brexit.
Trouble is, everybody who voted Brexit thinks that their shade is the 'correct' one, and what everyone else voted for also.....
This is clearly not the case.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 30 Jan 2019, 18:44

Little John wrote:If Labour MP's. or Tory ones for that matter, think that voting through May's shitty "deal", as it stands, with the Irish backstop intact and where the UK is tied into that arrangement until and unless the EU says it can leave will not result dire consequences in this country, they are insane.

I'd still be really surprised if No Deal managed to get over the line at this point, except 'by accident' as the EU puts it. A lot depends on what May can bring on February 13th. If it's nothing new then Labour will start pushing no confidence again, and/or customs union. The question is would there be the will in parliament to delay Art 50, and if so, for how long, and for what purpose? I think May's right to argue that a delay doesn't really move us any further on unless the goal is to organise a 2nd ref or go for a totally different solution.

It's such a crazy situation. I guess we're on hold now until mid-Feb to see if the EU blinks, but why would they? They know if they hold out that May is left with No Deal, no brexit and Labour's position, and No Deal doesn't have the votes if it becomes the explicit goal. If I were the EU I'd shrug and say 'we're the lighthouse, your move'.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 30 Jan 2019, 20:40

RevdTess wrote: I'd still be really surprised if No Deal managed to get over the line at this point, except 'by accident' as the EU puts it..

Why?

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/201 ... ts/enacted

Primary act of parliament states we leave on 29/3/2019.

You really think a new act of Parliament can be enacted in the next few weeks?

Post by **clv101** » 30 Jan 2019, 20:51

stumuz1 wrote:
RevdTess wrote: I'd still be really surprised if No Deal managed to get over the line at this point, except 'by accident' as the EU puts it..
Why?

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/201 ... ts/enacted

Primary act of parliament states we leave on 29/3/2019.

You really think a new act of Parliament can be enacted in the next few weeks?

Sure - I still think no-deal Brexit on 29th March is highly, highly unlikely. I'd give it no more than 5% chance. Two months is still a very long time in politics.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 30 Jan 2019, 21:06

During normal times yes. But these are not normal times.

The division in the country/Parliament/Government combined with a minority government does not bode well for a new act.

Plus, the elephant in the room.

DUP will not vote for any new act which has a backstop.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 30 Jan 2019, 21:37

Two months is still a very long time in politics.

That explains why the last 2+ years has felt like 2+ centuries.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 30 Jan 2019, 23:12

Mark wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Hmmm .. I don't recollect for voting for Stay in EU or Leave EU but with a 'deal' which ties the UK to the EU.
& therein lies the problem...., the Referendum was so ill defined....
Although Mrs May says that 'Brexit means Brexit', there are many shades of Brexit.
Trouble is, everybody who voted Brexit thinks that their shade is the 'correct' one, and what everyone else voted for also.....
This is clearly not the case.

No it wasn't ill defined. That is a lie. Both sides of the campaign, at the very highest level, in public, on the record, over and over again, made it unambiguously and transparently clear that this was an in or out referendum and that, if Leave won, would maen leaving the single market and customs union

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 31 Jan 2019, 08:45

Eurointelligence latest...

What a Brexit deal could look like

There is an important development in the Brexit process going on right now: a serious push for a cross-party deal. We put the chances of a Tory-only deal, with a re-negotiated Irish backstop, at zero. The EU will not reopen the backstop (more on this below), but we think there is a possibility of a legally valid side letter, or codicil. This will not be enough for a Tory-only majority, but might just be good enough to hold the bulk of the Tory party together.

The big news this morning is a report in the Times that Theresa May is putting together a long-overdue package of financial assistance for deprived regions in northern England, which were the main drivers of the Brexit vote. This includes cash to coal-mining communities. A separate programme for post-industrial areas is also under consideration. The transparent purpose of this programme is to entice about 20 Labour MPs to support the withdrawal deal, and to allow them to claim that they got something out of it. At the end of the day, it may be cash-for-Brexit.