Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[mikepepler]

Cold weather just a week or so away at most now, so it will be interesting to see how we cope. Rough was out of action last winter, but was still feeding some dregs into the network (though I don't know how much). But that amount will surely be lower this winter, as it runs down.

[RenewableCandy]

I didn't know Rough was still a thing - I thought it got decommissioned 2 years ago. Or did someone see sense?

[adam2]

It WAS decommissioned, in that no more gas was put into storage at Rough.

This however "left behind" a relatively small volume of gas that may as well be extracted rather than being abandoned.

[adam2]

Our natural gas storage is well filled, it has been fluctuating around 24,000 to 25,000 Gwh for much of the last couple of weeks.
Stocks today reached 26,000Gwh.

It must be remembered though that storage capacity is much reduced if compared to years ago.

We should be fine for a brief cold spell, but prolonged severe weather and any interruption to imports could prove interesting.

Present stocks would last about 3 weeks without imports.
5 days without imports in cold weather=discreet panicgram sent out.
10 days without imports=state of emergency
20 days of cold weather without imports=?

Those times could be doubled in mild weather.

[Little John]

That's really useful information Adam. Thanks.

[adam2]

Or in more detail,

5 days of cold weather or 10 days of milder weather without imports would likely result in very high prices, and strictly unofficial calls to reduce consumption, for example by increasing oil burnt in power stations, by increasing coal burnt, and by running some gas turbine plant on light oil instead of natural gas.

10 days of cold weather or 20 days of milder weather without gas imports might result in a state of emergency being declared to enforce emergency gas saving measures. These could include;
Requiring that all gas turbine power plant that can burn oil, does so.Closing roads and overriding planning restrictions if need be.
Prohibit use of electricity for advertising.
Prohibit gas or electric heating of leisure facilities.
Restrict street lighting.
Shut of gas to industry.
Substitute diesel or even steam locomotives for electric power on railways.
Rota power cuts.
3 day week.

Declaration of a state of emergency could be postponed of course if much milder weather, or a resumption of imports was expected.
Matters would also depend on how much gas was in stock when the disruption started. 26 Gwh (todays stock) will last longer than a more typical winter stock of under 20 Gwh.
I doubt that things would get that bad, but it could happen in the event of war or commotion affecting gas exporting places.

[vtsnowedin]

How many Gwh of LNG come on a tanker and how often do they arrive or more importantly how much can be offloaded per day using the current shore facilities?

[adam2]

How many Gwh of LNG come on a tanker and how often do they arrive or more importantly how much can be offloaded per day using the current shore facilities?

Not certain where to find detailed data on this, however approximations may be inferred from the chart on the "prevailing view" website.

This shows LNG stock levels and is normally updated once a day at about 16-00 UK time.
Any increase in stock levels represents one or more deliveries, the timing of these looks random, but averaging several times a week during the winter.

The volume of LNG may be inferred, with limited accuracy, from the degree to which the indicated stock level increases.
Many deliveries look to be about 500 to 1000 Gwh.
This is only an approximation because the chart shows only the increase NET OF ANY WITHDRAWALS.
A delivery of 1000 Gwh and a withdrawal of 500 Gwh will show a net increase of 500 Gwh, as will a delivery of 600 Gwh and a withdrawal of 100 Gwh.
Yesterday showed an unusually large increase in LNG stocks of over 2,000 Gwh, this I suspect represented at least two deliveries during the same 24 hour reporting day.

Observation of the total LNG stock level, and whether deliveries are arriving at about the usual rate, is IMHO of greater significance.

[vtsnowedin]

I don't know what size or type ships are delivering to the UK but if I looked it up and did the math correctly the Panamax sized tankers carry 250,000 M^3 of gas at 450kg/M^3 and at 6.92 tonnes LNG per Mwh for a total of 16,252 Mwh per ship load. I have no idea how long it takes to unload one.

[BritDownUnder]

A bit of a song and dance to load these things. First the empty tank needs purging with nitrogen gas then purging with methane gas then loaded with liquefied methane. Unloading process is presumably the reverse. I am told the loading process of the liquid is about 18 hours.

I suspect a lot of fugitive methane is produced in this process.

[vtsnowedin]

A bit of a song and dance to load these things. First the empty tank needs purging with nitrogen gas then purging with methane gas then loaded with liquefied methane. Unloading process is presumably the reverse. I am told the loading process of the liquid is about 18 hours.

I suspect a lot of fugitive methane is produced in this process.

Yes and apparently it is often just flared away adding to world CO2 pollution without doing any useful work. This is a pet peeve of mine, flared wasted gas,and when I become leader of the world will stop immediately.

[adam2]

Gas demand has of course been increased by the recent severe weather, but deliveries continue to arrive frequently and I see little cause for concern in the near term.
Total stocks are at about 21,000 Gwh, or enough for about 21 days of exceptional demand or about 6 weeks of more typical demand.

Prices have fallen a bit, and the average price is broadly similar to that prevailing last winter.

In the longer term we remain very vulnerable to any interruption to imports, but in the near term I see little cause for concern.

[adam2]

LNG stocks have suddenly dropped from about 11,000 Gwh down to about 7,000Gwh in just four days.
Medium range storage has also fallen, though only modestly.

This drop in stocks is not yet sufficient to be a cause for concern, but it does illustrate just how reliant we are on very frequent LNG deliveries.

Only four days without a delivery has consumed a significant percentage of stocks.

[adam2]

With winter* virtually over, any significant gas supply issues now seem most unlikely until next winter.

Storage is reasonably well filled and with the reduced demand now expected should be ample for all but the most extreme events.
The current stock of about 18,000 Gwh would last over a month at the highest likely withdrawal rate, and might last a couple of months.

Wholesale prices have fallen, indicating that the market does not expect shortages.

We are of course vulnerable to any prolonged supply issues, or if pipeline AND tanker imports were both cut off.
That COULD happen, but I see no reason for particular concern until next winter.

*there is more than one definition of "winter", but the months of December, January, and February is reasonable when considering gas consumption.

[vtsnowedin]

*there is more than one definition of "winter", but the months of December, January, and February is reasonable when considering gas consumption.

Count your blessings on the weather front.
I had -5 deg. F here this A.M. . There has been in excess of eight feet of snowfall so far with some rainstorms mixed in so the snow pack is now about 40 inches deep. I can expect another fifteen inches of snow in March and bare ground sometime mid to late April. If not for Town trucks and my big Green John Deere shovel I'd truly be "Snowed IN".