Brexit process

[fuzzy]

I've just been reading something from Huxley:

"The perfect dictatorship would have the appearance of democracy, but would basically be a prison without walls in which the prisoners would not even dream of escaping. It would essentially be a system of slavery where, through consumption and entertainment, the slaves would love their servitude"

The Post Modern Globalist's Utopia, in other words. Fascism for the 21st century.

The trouble is, some of the slaves haven't even been afforded sufficient capacity to consume or be entertained by way of compensation and so are rebelling. Trump and Brexit being just two examples. Meanwhile, those slaves who have been adequately compensated just want it all left as it is. Quelle-surprise.

Indeed, there used to be a term for those kinds of slaves on the old cotton plantations who preferred their slavery and who adopted their master's ideology and sneered at all of the other slaves that they considered "beneath" them. They were called the "house niggers". Consequently, in any uprisings against the plantation owners, these house niggers were the first to get their throats cut since rest of the slaves unsurprisingly detested them even more than the plantation owner.

Sound familiar?

Yes, but I hope you have a good next 2 days and we can continue our dystopian future after.

Steve, you are welcome for a change of scenery sometime near the Welsh border. We could house a single/couple/2+ child. Over here we have a different mix of problems from the N Yorks coast, but it's a fascinating place, especially for walkers.

Have a good crimbo.

[Little John]

Well bless you for that fuzzy. You have a good Christmas as well.

[kenneal - lagger]

I've just been reading something from Huxley:

"The perfect dictatorship would have the appearance of democracy, but would basically be a prison without walls in which the prisoners would not even dream of escaping. It would essentially be a system of slavery where, through consumption and entertainment, the slaves would love their servitude"

The Post Modern Globalist's Utopia, in other words. Fascism for the 21st century.

.......

I think that we have that type of democracy now, LJ. We think that we are voting for an MP who will does his best for us but in reality all the MPs, or nearly all of them, are ultimately only answerable to the companies which fund the political party. (read this book for further information - www.theprostitutestate.co.uk) The senior ranks of the civil service give advise to government on the same basis as they want a lucrative post in industry after their retirement to boost the pension somewhat. We are ultimately in a faux democratic fascist state.

And Suss, in the longer term teaching the children of those incomers the Welsh language will turn them into little Welshmen and Women who will eventually change the name back to Penrallt. (such a simple name is so awkward to get the tongue around - the "ll" followed by a "t" doesn't trip off the tongue too easily).

[emordnilap]

At root is the clever upside-down design of money. The less you have, the higher the cost of using it and vice versa.

[UndercoverElephant]

So, anybody still think we can avoid no deal?

It's all looking rather predictable now. Nobody is going to back down.

EU probably won't capitulate on the backstop (but is still just about possible).
Tory "rebels" won't bring down the govt to stop no deal.
WA won't get through parliament.
May knows it won't, so she'll keep delaying the vote in order to try to force MPs to support it at the last moment.
But the DUP see it as an existential threat, the ERG think no deal is a better outcome than the deal, and the opposition have no intention of bailing May out.

Put that all together and we have total stalemate, leading to no deal.

[kenneal - lagger]

They'll just have to listen to what people said in the vote we had on the subject, "Leave".

[Little John]

The one remaining possibility is that the Blairites cross the house and bail May out in some form or another under the bullshit pretext of a "government of national unity".

[UndercoverElephant]

The one remaining possibility is that the Blairites cross the house and bail May out in some form or another under the bullshit pretext of a "government of national unity".

Doesn't seem very likely. The problem is that May's deal is so bad that they can argue that no deal is a less bad outcome.

[Little John]

But, they will never argue that because they do not want a full exit under any circumstances whatsoever because they know, if that happens, there will never be any going back.

Don't misunderstand me, I think it more likely they will not cross the house than it is they will cross it due to their knowing the terrible risk of an almighty backlash against them personally as MPs. But, it is possible.

[UndercoverElephant]

How about this for a likely sequence of events..

1) May's deal is defeated by a large margin. May stalls on what the tories plan to do next, with chaos behind the scenes.

2) Labour tables VonC. VonC is narrowly defeated.

3) More tory chaos and more stalling.

4) Corbyn comes under massive pressure to swing behind second referendum, and indeed this is (arguably) established Labour policy. Corbyn backs second referendum.

5) May calls a second vote on the WA, this time declaring that if it fails a second time, she'll be forced to call a general election. This threatens the no-deal tory rebels and the DUP to choose between backing May's deal or a general election which is likely to lead to no brexit if Labour wins.

If this happens, then that second vote will determine the fate of brexit and this tory government. Either all the rebels and the DUP will fall into line, and we'll get a May's-deal-brexit and an ongoing nightmare until the next general election, or they won't. If they don't then there will surely be a 3 month a50 extension, and a general election. If the tories win then we get May's deal and the tories have five more years. If labour wins then we either get Corbyn's deal or no brexit (and I suspect it will be the latter).

[RevdTess]

I agree with 1-4. I'm not sure that May would call a GE if/when the vote fails a second time. I suspect she'd prefer no-deal than a GE, since even a relatively successful GE is unlikely to get May's deal through, and there's a big risk of losing to Corbyn.

[Little John]

If we get no Brexit, via whatever bullshit that happens, then the lid is going to come off a lot of cans of worms.

[stumuz1]

there will surely be a 3 month a50 extension

A bit presumptuous. Why do you think the other 27 would readily agree? What concessions would they require? how long would the negotiations take?

[careful_eugene]

there will surely be a 3 month a50 extension

A bit presumptuous. Why do you think the other 27 would readily agree? What concessions would they require? how long would the negotiations take?

It's in the EU's interest for the UK to leave with a deal so I think they'd grant an extension if it meant this was sorted out. However given this governments propensity for kicking the can down the road 3 months might not make that much difference.

[stumuz1]

I'm not so sure.

Italy will demand more banking troubles be transferred to the ECB. Eire will demand more promises on compensation when its economy takes a dive, Malta will want leniency on sanctions for looking the other way on shooting journalists. Poland will want to sack its independent judges without rebuke (insert country and concessions from the commission) etc etc etc

And all for a piddly three months?