Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

A GE will not bring any political change because both parties are just marketing/ppe machines with no principles.

I don't agree. Unless the election produced very similar parliamentary maths, it would break the deadlock. Also, the campaigns themselves would probably shift public opinion in one direction or another.

[RevdTess]

I don't know how May can get any kind of 'clarification' that any backstop will be temporary that will satisfy Brexiteers and the DUP. Everyone is saying that the deal can't change so I'm not sure how any clarification can help. On the other hand the DUP were (temporarily) mollified by clarifications when the backstop was first mooted, so maybe it can be so again.

The Eurointelligence stuff seems far too earnest in hoping for May's deal to succeed. It gives the impression they're clutching at straws.

As I said before I don't think the DUP will vote against the govt in a confidence vote unless they've lost all hope of preventing the permanent backstop.

I can't see what May could offer Labour to bring them onside. Corbyn wants a permanent customs union and free trade agreement without free movement. It seems impossible. What less could he settle for that's plausible? It would have to be something in the subsequently negotiated free trade agreement because the withdrawal agreement can't be altered.

I suspect May is following the twin-track of running down the clock while searching for forms of words that will bring cross-party majority support. She's relying on the fact that no one wants to be responsible for a chaotic no-deal, and MPs will become more and more willing to compromise over time.

I still don't think she has enough wiggle room, and I do think the EU would allow A50 to be paused for a 2nd referendum with remain as an option (even, ultimately, if no-deal is there too). So I reckon we still go down to the wire with all May's opponents still thinking they can get what they want. And so we wait some more....

[Potemkin Villager]

The way they keep banging on about the "national interest" - total bollocks. Everybody is positioning themselves so that when it all goes tits up they can blame somebody else and claim they did their best. May is still on track to getting what she wants which is no brexit (her deal) or no brexit (another referendum). Apart from anything else the demographics do not favour brexit as more crusty old gits die off and more youngsters get the vote.

[UndercoverElephant]

The way they keep banging on about the "national interest" - total bollocks. Everybody is positioning themselves so that when it all goes tits up they can blame somebody else and claim they did their best. May is still on track to getting what she wants which is no brexit (her deal) or no brexit (another referendum). Apart from anything else the demographics do not favour brexit as more crusty old gits die off and more youngsters get the vote.

May wants, in order:

Her deal
No deal
No brexit

[UndercoverElephant]

There seems to be a growing consensus this evening about where we now are. We're basically heading for a no deal unless the EU capitulates on the backstop. There is an outlying possibility that the DUP will fear that a no deal will lead to a united Ireland, and bring the government down, but that leaves them with a Corbyn government instead, so they are snookered either way.

Parliament doesn't have the numbers to bring the government down.
May cannot be removed by the tory party.
Without changes to the backstop, her deal won't get through parliament.
The government will not table any legislation to revoke A50, hold a second referendum or call a general election.
The anti-no-deal majority in parliament has no mechanism to prevent no deal.

Conclusion: we are heading for no deal.

There are signs that the EU knows this. We've already had Prodi call for "flexibility" from the EU on the backstop. Now Barroso has joined him

https://twitter.com/JMDBarroso/status/1 ... 78694?s=19

Now that #Brexit appears unavoidable it’s extremely important to get a deal that avoids the so called hard Brexit. The #EuropeanUnion , that until now as shown such remarkable coherence and intelligence on this issue ,should show some flexibility on the #backstop.

That's two former EU commission presidents calling for the EU to move on the immovable backstop. They are scared. The EU has overplayed its hand and is now facing the outcome it thought it didn't have to worry about, because the UK would never allow it to happen. No £39bn and a hard border required in Ireland (or an admission it is not required).

This is actually looking quite good for the UK, IMO. Theresa May might just have ended up playing hardball with the EU by accident. She deserves zero credit for this, but the final outcome might not be too bad.

[Lord Beria3]

Interesting UE.

Should the EU show sufficient flexibility on the backstop and as Eurointelligence suggests, move to the point that the DUP can support the deal that could prove a game-changer.

Why? Because the bulk of the Tory Brexiteers will sign up to the deal if the DUP can be brought onside.

In regard to the political declaration, wording can be amended to reflect the various options down the track, including a closer relationship with the EU which could modify moderate Labour MP's who are desperate to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Since it is only aspirational and in the future, Tory Brexit MP's may still calculate that with a new Tory leader after May has resigned they can still push for the hardest possible eventual deal when the transition period ends.

Unlike you, I still think that whilst the current deal, as it is currently constituted, can't pass, with a bit of tweaking of the declaration and flexibility by the EU on the backstop, an amended version of the May deal can still get through parliament in Q1 2019.

That, in essence, is what Eurointelligence are saying. Note that they think a no-deal Brexit is still a realistic outcome should the various factions miscalculate.

[UndercoverElephant]

Interesting UE.

Should the EU show sufficient flexibility on the backstop and as Eurointelligence suggests, move to the point that the DUP can support the deal that could prove a game-changer.

Why? Because the bulk of the Tory Brexiteers will sign up to the deal if the DUP can be brought onside.

Yes, it would be a game-changer. The backstop is the problem. But the biggest reason it is the problem isn't because the DUP won't support it. It is because of the way it distorts future negotiations for a trade deal. As it stands, with no UK unilateral exit mechanism, the EU would hold all the power in those negotiations, because it can keep us trapped in the backstop forever if it wants, while it has the power to change the rules of the CU to hurt the UK economy. That is why the brexiteers won't sign up to it (and why nobody else who is sane would sign up to it either). But if the UK has a unilateral exit mechanism then those trade negotiations would be much more equal, or tilted in the UK's favour.

What is required is changes to the backstop which have a neutral effect on the trade negotiations. I don't even know if such a solution is possible, but if it can be found and the EU is willing to agree to it then the UK parliament will surely ratify it.

In regard to the political declaration, wording can be amended to reflect the various options down the track, including a closer relationship with the EU which could modify moderate Labour MP's who are desperate to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

The PD isn't worth the paper it is written on. To make this work, the EU has to be willing modify the WA itself, or come up with another legally-binding solution.

[UndercoverElephant]

I still see 'no deal' as basically impossible, so think the most likely outcome now is a slightly modified 'the deal', being agreed at the eleventh hour.

No deal is a very long way from impossible. The routes to avoiding it are closing off. Slight modifications will not be enough. There has to be a unilateral exit mechanism to the backstop, or an end date. Nothing else is going to win back those 117 tory MPs.

[UndercoverElephant]

Beria,

Big night last night. May had another disaster in Europe - they have hardened their stance against her. I think until last night she still believed she could force her deal through parliament with a combination of delaying tactics and threats, but now surely even she knows the deal is dead.

The DUP also know there is no threat of the backstop being implemented, although they might still bring her down because they are scared of a messy no-deal leading to a united Ireland.

The question now is what May and tory party do now it is becoming clear that we are heading straight for no deal unless something changes. What's changed is that now even May cannot pretend that can-kicking can serve any purpose.

[Lord Beria3]

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... 520d7e2d89

Superb article. We can argue to the cows go blue on what type of Brexit we get and the process will evolve but the big picture is were still f***ed because of the underlying energy issue.

[UndercoverElephant]

Oh. My. God.

Anyone see that conference? She is *still* trying to convince people that her deal can get through parliament. At this point, I am struggling to believe that anyone - any single human being apart from her - thinks this is possible.

The EU have doubled down. They just moved to shut down any prospect of people believing they might buckle on the backstop in the response to the threat of no deal.

We are heading for a no deal now unless she's toppled in a VonC against the government. No other outcomes still possible.

[RevdTess]

We are heading for a no deal now unless she's toppled in a VonC against the government. No other outcomes still possible.

But first she's still obliged to bring her plan to be defeated and then to present a plan B.

So I still see a (narrowing) route to an A50 delay and new referendum, or to a plan B that Labour could support.

I've also been wondering if the hardline Brexiteers might now support a Labour no confidence vote but actually there's no reason to do so while no-deal remains on track. Ironically, the only reason to bring down May's govt is if she looks like she can get her deal through with backstop intact.

[RevdTess]

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... 520d7e2d89

Superb article. We can argue to the cows go blue on what type of Brexit we get and the process will evolve but the big picture is were still f***ed because of the underlying energy issue.

It definitely a good article. It reminds me that back in 2008 and even before that, we were arguing on this forum about the consequences of peak oil, and mostly the views were that it would lead to Mad Max or to hippy communes, but mostly we felt it would be kinda obvious that the system was failing. Instead what we find is a system that sort of looks like it's still working but with gradually deepening poverty and inequality and a quiet slide into this thing called 'hypernormalisation' where the crappiness of everything is just blandly accepted until suddenly it's not and extreme solutions are grabbed at.

It's like the liberal democracy project just left 75% of people behind and ran on ahead off the cliff with social engineering and social control and now everyone's trying to run back to the cliff while the right wing is sat with the mass of disgruntled people round a camp fire gleefully handing out burning torches.

The neoliberals assumed business as usual and suddenly we're in the midst of declining energy input and declining migration input and we still can't even see that it's a systemic problem or believe that most people will happily choose a vicious populism if they see an 'elite' getting everything they want socially or economically while all their own services and buying power goes down the drain. Hence Brexit.

My fear as a social liberal (but not an economic neoliberal) is that Trumpism becomes the new hegemony across the West, rolling back all the social gains for women and minorities of varying kinds. Brexit for me is a clear example of this and it's really quite terrifying on a personal level, even though it's a massive poke in the eye for neoliberalism which needed to be reminded that it's running off the cliff.

Last year I was on a 'theology of environmentalism' course for my role as a trainee vicar and it was so frustrating to hear all the do-gooder comments about how cutting down a little on waste is good enough. I must admit I came over all Old Testament prophet with my overwhelming sense of doom. Even right in the middle of the energy and climate crisis we still can't see it. It's no wonder everyone always sleepwalks into fascism and dictatorships.

[clv101]

It reminds me that back in 2008 and even before that, we were arguing on this forum about the consequences of peak oil, and mostly the views were that it would lead to Mad Max or to hippy communes, but mostly we felt it would be kinda obvious that the system was failing. Instead what we find is a system that sort of looks like it's still working but with gradually deepening poverty and inequality and a quiet slide into this thing called 'hypernormalisation' where the crappiness of everything is just blandly accepted until suddenly it's not and extreme solutions are grabbed at.

I don't think Mad Max or hippy communes were ever the majority view, maybe a few loud voices. I always thought it would pan out rather how it is doing, from the bottom up, a long emergency, a slow motion collapse. I never subscribed to the dramatic 'Last Light' kind of collapse.

This, what we have today, is what collapse looks like.

[UndercoverElephant]

I've also been wondering if the hardline Brexiteers might now support a Labour no confidence vote but actually there's no reason to do so while no-deal remains on track.

Funny you should say that. Rumours flying round the internet now suggest that about 20 ERGers are planning a "suicide squad" attack on May by doing exactly this. The plan (apparently) is to support a Labour no confidence vote and then demand that May is replaced immediately. If this happens within 14 days then the new leader would be able to form a government, and the ERG would back them. The risk is that this will take the tory civil war to a new level, and they couldn't agree on a replacement, but if that happens then Corbyn gets to choose between trying to form a government himself and a GE. So presumably the tories would get their act together at least enough to choose a new leader damned quick.