Brexit process

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 18:28

vtsnowedin wrote: Has someone miscalculated the votes?

No, but nobody knows who is lying. It is a secret ballot, and it is in most tory MP's best personal interest to say they are supporting the Prime Minister even if they are actually planning on knifing her in private.

I think it will be close. Maybe she'll win, but not by much, and she'll be even more damaged than she was already. She still doesn't have an actual plan on how to proceed.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 18:30

RevdTess wrote:
That doesn't mean she won't resign if the vote is close

She won't choose to resign, but the men in grey suits might pay her a visit.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 18:35

Lord Beria3 wrote:
A second ref is a mad idea and would lead to civil unrest.

Might end up being her least bad option (if she wins).

Let's say there's no chance whatsoever of her getting her deal through parliament, because of the backstop, which the EU will not change.

Now let's say that the Grieve amendment means that any meaningful vote on the deal will be amended such that if the vote fails, no deal is ruled out.

We would then be in a position where it is impossible to pass the deal, and impossible to default to no deal if the deal is rejected. And not holding a meaningful vote is also illegal, already.

At that point her only options are a second referendum, a general election, or revoking article 50. Legally, she would have no other option.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 18:42

Lord Beria3 wrote: The 48 letters, by contrast, refers to an internal Tory party procedure. It is a political high-wire act because it will lead, by necessity, to one of two extreme results. It will either destroy May, or massively strengthen her.

Wrong. Winning by one vote does not massively strengthen her. It leaves her as Prime Minister, but on her knees.

A new leader may find it easier to sell the deal as aÂ fait accompliÂ - an agreement that is not great, but good enough.

Who the hell is writing this? The deal cannot be sold to the commons at all. It's DEAD, Beria. Parliament is simply not going to ratify a deal which gives away that much sovereignty, for so little in return.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

In a desperate attempt to secure support for her deal, May is now seeking - and likely to obtain - a legally-binding statement by the European Council. We do not think this will be enough.

Nothing like enough.

We think it is possible that a new leader might shift the red lines, for example by proposing a Norway deal

Didn't eurointelligence rule this out last week?

But, in the end, we believe the UK parliament will face thatÂ binary choice. Alternative options, like the second referendum or another deal, will then no longer be on the menu.Â

This is wrong. The Grieve amendment means that it is highly likely that the UK parliament will rule out no deal, so the binary choice will actually be between deal and no brexit. And no brexit will beat her deal.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Dec 2018, 19:11

The Grieve amendment is not legally binding since it is not an amendment on primary legislation

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 19:18

Little John wrote:The Grieve amendment is not legally binding since it is not an amendment on primary legislation

It allows legally binding amendments to primary legislation.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Dec 2018, 19:48

You are going to need to explain that to me UE since it looks like you have simply repeated what I wrote.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 20:06

Little John wrote:You are going to need to explain that to me UE since it looks like you have simply repeated what I wrote.

The grieve amendment allows for legally binding amendments on primary legislation. If May ever brings her deal before Parliament, there could be a vote on an amendment beforehand which says "in the event the main bill doesn't pass, it is made illegal that the government allows the UK to leave the EU with no deal." If parliament votes yes to the amendment, but no to the main bill, it would be illegal for the government to let no deal happen.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 20:07

Rumours are that May has won comfortably, with only 86 votes against. Others saying it is 100-120 against, but May has still clung on.

If so, wait for the backlash from the ERG and the DUP. Could be mass resignation from the whip.

Post by **clv101** » 12 Dec 2018, 20:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:
clv101 wrote:Will she win? I think she will.
No chance. That the tories need the support of the DUP in order to govern, and the DUP have stated that they now have no confidence in her personally, but might continue to support the tories under a new leader. That, on top of the fact that she's committed to a path that is doomed to fail (getting her deal through parliament) means she has no hope of winning this vote tonight.

If I am wrong, and she wins, then Corbyn canl table a VonC in the government tomorrow, the DUP would bring them down, and we'll have a general election with May leading the tories.

Certainly 'sounds' safe. It'll be amazing to hear she's lost tonight - so many Tories would have been lying to media tonight.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 12 Dec 2018, 20:41

LJ is correct.

No deal means we crash out of the EU on 31st March with no deal! That is the logic of Article 50.

Grieve amendment can't stop that! The guaranteed way to avoid a no-deal Brexit is to vote for the withdrawal treaty.

Eurointelligence are correct that many MP's are hoping for a softer Brexit or a 2nd referendum. If those options can be shutdown then it becomes a deal versus no deal (assuming parliament refuses to revoke brexit itself).

For me, the ultimate decision lies with Brussels. They have the power to say to the UK that they will veto any request by a UK government to extend Article 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.

Crushing the hopes of the Peoples Vote crowd forces those MP's to 3 options 1) approve withdrawal deal 2) revoke Brexit without referendum 3) de facto no deal Brexit.

In practise its basically between 1 and 2 since no deal is unthinkable to this crowd.

If enough MP'd abstain or support the deal then May gets it through.

The Norway plus option is interesting as well. Many within the UK want the government to explore this and the wording of the political declaration can be amended to reference a UK desire to go the Norway Plus way.

However, exploring and actually agreeing with our partners within Europe are two different things.

All the signs are that the Norway option is unpopular with Norway and other similar countries and would still require the Irish backstop, include freedom of movement and involve very tough talks. For political and legal reasons it will be very difficult to pull off.

Given the above, it may be the case that the EU and Norway plus club may decide to formally kill off the hopes of Britain following this option.

This would have the benefit of shutting down one of the alleged alternative options within parliament to May's Brexit deal.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 12 Dec 2018, 20:45

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... a-job.html

The PM does better among Tory voters where 58 per cent think she should stay and 28 per cent think she should be replaced.

Tories back May!

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Dec 2018, 20:47

So what?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2018, 20:59

Yeah Beria, if that isn't supposed to be a joke, it is pretty desperate.

Post by **clv101** » 12 Dec 2018, 21:02

200 for, against 117. She survives, but not by as much as she'd like!
37% vote against.