Brexit process

[Little John]

While everyone gets their knickers in a twist over tonight's vote of no confidence I will note simply that serious preparations should have been made, from the outset, to leave on WTO rules. They weren't and the reason they weren't is because virtually the entire political class are remainers and so now this country is faced with the Hobson's choice of the treachery of May's "deal", leaving on WTO rules wholly unprepared or revoking Brexit.

I think it is now very likely there will be bloodshed over this before it is finished. Whether May survives this vote of confidence or not is a side issue to that larger crisis.

[RevdTess]

My guess is the no-confidence vote will go roughly along the same lines as they would have voted on the Brexit deal.

If you're content with May's deal, what benefit is there in removing her, since she can only be replaced with someone happier to have no-deal or a much harder Brexit.

If you're voting against the deal because you want a harder brexit, then why support May? All the alternatives are more likely to get you what you want.

There may be a few wanting to dump the deal because they think we'll end up remaining. For them too, May as PM is better than brexiteer alternatives who would just march towards no-deal refusing to offer any other solution.

So I reckon May will get the 50%+1 she needs, but it will be a slim margin. Would she resign if she only just won? She doesn't seem the type.

Is there any chance of anything coming out of the EU to enable her to get votes for her deal? I'm not seeing anything at all. They're all saying the backstop is necessary, so how can there be a legal assurance that we can get out of it?

Would May resign if she passes the confidence vote but her deal eventually falls in January? No idea. I just don't know what motivates her to keep going so determined to 'deliver Brexit' that she never wanted and which polls now say the country has probably changed its mind over.

I'd have gone for another referendum long ago, not because I think Remain would now win, but because it allows the people to take final responsibility for their informed choice. Beria said earlier that Remainers seem sure they'd win a second vote, but as a remainer and people's vote supporter I don't have that feeling at all. I'd be quite content if a second referendum (with remain as an option) led to a leave vote because that's the only way I can see us moving on from the sense that the first vote was mired in lies and illegalities and ignorance of the potential outcomes. If we voted leave again after all we've seen over the last two years then so be it, that's who we are now.

[Little John]

1) a second referendum would require an extension to article 50 to allow sufficient time for it to be implemented

2) so far as I am aware, the EU has offered the opportunity to extend article 50 for a second referendum. But, only on the basis that leaving on WTO is not on the ballot paper.

3) (2) would never get through parliament

4) in the unlikely event it did, there would be riots and civil unrest to the point of making the implementation of such a second referendum difficult to impossible

[clv101]

Seems enough Tories have said they'll support May. She's safe unless a lot of Tories are lying.

So, I see her winning tonight, I she her government surviving any vote of no confidence, then an only slightly modified version of 'the deal' pases at the eleventh hour, ie 28th March. She'll then shortly step down giving enough time for someone else to contest the next GE.

[UndercoverElephant]

Seems enough Tories have said they'll support May. She's safe unless a lot of Tories are lying.

Of course they are lying.

So, I see her winning tonight, I she her government surviving any vote of no confidence, then an only slightly modified version of 'the deal' pases at the eleventh hour, ie 28th March. She'll then shortly step down giving enough time for someone else to contest the next GE.

Are you serious? If May wins then there will be a GE in January, which Labour will win.

[UndercoverElephant]

Would May resign if she passes the confidence vote but her deal eventually falls in January?

Her deal is already dead! She cannot get it through parliament.

If May wins and continues to defend her dead deal, there will be a VonC in the government and the DUP will vote with the opposition. GE follows. Labour win. Second referendum follows, brexit is cancelled.

If I am wrong and she wins the VonC in the government then we are hurtling towards no deal with nothing anybody can do to stop it. We crash out of the EU with no deal, chaos ensues, followed by a GE in the summer which Labour will win.

It's over. The tories have lost. Corbyn will be in Downing Street within 6 months.

[clv101]

I still think *every* Tory and DUP MP will do everything they can to avoid a GE.

[UndercoverElephant]

I still think *every* Tory and DUP MP will do everything they can to avoid a GE.

In which case there will be a no deal, followed by chaos, followed by a GE. The tories cannot govern for the next four years, via a no-deal brexit, with no majority in the commons.

[Lord Beria3]

Well Blondemoney think there is a 55 chance she will lose tonight. May could blow it when she speaks to mps at 5.

It's looking like she will win though... But never trust a Tory MP! And I'm a Tory!

A second ref is a mad idea and would lead to civil unrest. Parliament needs to get on with it.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointelligence latest...

48 letters

The 48 letters are apparently in, according to UK political reporters who have been briefed by various sources. A string of false alarms in the past has made us cautious, and we must preface the following with the usual health warnings. But this time, it seems for real that at least 48 disgruntled Conservative MPs now want to go ahead with a challenge to Theresa May as party leader, and by extension as prime minister. For non-UK readers it is important to note that this is not to be confused with the no-confidence procedure in the House of Commons, which is also currently under discussion. The latter constitutes a precisely worded motion - to be brought by the official opposition - which, if accepted, would trigger a process that could either lead to a new government or an election. 

The 48 letters, by contrast, refers to an internal Tory party procedure. It is a political high-wire act because it will lead, by necessity, to one of two extreme results. It will either destroy May, or massively strengthen her. To win, the rebels will need to secure the support of 158 Tory MPs willing to state in a secret ballot that they have no confidence in May. There are no lobby doors through which they have to walk. If the motion is passed, a leadership challenge is triggered which could take over two months. But some Tory MPs say that it might be short-circuited given the current circumstances.

If the rebels lose, May will be immune to a new challenge for one year even is she wins by only one vote - a landslide in the current circumstance. She could then trigger elections if she obtains a two-thirds majority for it in the House of Commons. She could threaten her party with a referendum over the deal. But it wouldn’t make her immune to a vote of no-confidence in the House of Commons.

This leadership contest is the first of the big dramas in the final act of the Brexit saga, with potentially big implications for the ensuing Brexit process. A new leader may find it easier to sell the deal as a fait accompli - an agreement that is not great, but good enough. The EU might also become more flexible once it has confidence that a new leader can deliver a Commons majority. It makes sense given the current political chaos in the UK that the EU is currently not open to a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement itself.

In a desperate attempt to secure support for her deal, May is now seeking - and likely to obtain - a legally-binding statement by the European Council. We do not think this will be enough. If May stays in power, and survives a defeat in the so-called meaningful vote, there will have to be a second round of voting, probably at the end of January or maybe even later.

We think it is possible that a new leader might shift the red lines, for example by proposing a Norway deal, or alternatively press ahead with immediate no-deal preparations and wait for the EU to respond. The EU itself will this week step up its no-deal preparations, as will the UK. It will happen on both sides, and it will also create new facts on the ground that in turn will impinge on the political process. 

Despite its many unique features, Brexit has the characteristic of a classic EU negotiating procedure, starting out as a multiple-choice catalogue but always ending up as binary. So when we predict - as we do - that the decision will be deal-versus-no-deal, we are cutting through a lot of the politics that still needs to happen between now and then. But, in the end, we believe the UK parliament will face that binary choice. Alternative options, like the second referendum or another deal, will then no longer be on the menu. 

The reason we see a rising danger of a no-deal Brexit is our assessment that the UK parliament lacks the alternative majorities needed to push through a referendum or an outright revocation. It is also possible that the political impasse might end in new elections - in which the electorate will have a choice either between May’s deal and Jeremy Corbyn’s unicorn version of Brexit, which transgresses several of the EU’s red lines. It is possible that Labour would change its position during an election campaign, for example in favour of a second referendum. That would be the only second referendum scenario we could somehow envisage. 

[PS_RalphW]

When Margaret Thatcher faced a similar vote she won, and resigned the next day.

I those days the real seat of power were members of the old boys club who always spoke in private and who could pull strings in the financial and civil service and political circles to make or break a career.

I do not see that the world is so different today.

[vtsnowedin]

Reuters has May winning the no confidence vote.
Has someone miscalculated the votes?
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKBN1OB1LW

[RevdTess]

When Margaret Thatcher faced a similar vote she won, and resigned the next day.

The rules were different for Thatcher though. It wasn't a confidence vote but a leadership challenge. She won the first round against stalking horse opponents but not by enough to gain an outright (50%+) victory. There was then going to be an additional round of voting in which new candidates could be proposed. She initially said she'd fight on but then realised that many who'd supported her out of duty in the first round were abandoning her in the second. For May it's a simple confidence vote. If she wins even by 1 vote she can't be challenged for a year.

That doesn't mean she won't resign if the vote is close but the situation is quite different to the one Thatcher faced. I suspect she'd continue. After all, Corbyn lost a confidence vote by a huge margin and he's more in control than ever

[RevdTess]

I still think *every* Tory and DUP MP will do everything they can to avoid a GE.

I agree, I can't imagine why the DUP would ever willingly risk a Corbyn govt. AFAIK they don't want his version of Brexit either (which is undeliverable anyway since it tries to combine single market participation without free movement).

The DUP threat to vote against the govt is far better as a threat than if they pull the trigger. I think May is relying on that, too.

[UndercoverElephant]

I agree, I can't imagine why the DUP would ever willingly risk a Corbyn govt.

Because TM's deal is worse.