Brexit process

[Little John]

Starmer... the revolutionary Blairite.... hahahahahahahahaha

[UndercoverElephant]

Starmer... the revolutionary Blairite.... hahahahahahahahaha

He's not stupid, Steve. And unlike Blair, he's not a power-crazy liar either. He represents a genuine compromise candidate who could unite the Labour party around a post-neoliberal post-thatcherite consensus.

Who else is going to take over from Corbyn? McDonnell? Too old. Abbott? Pull the other one.

[Little John]

You think what is needed now is "compromise"?

That approach has led to the shit show we are now seeing unfolding all across the West.

[UndercoverElephant]

You think what is needed now is "compromise"?

Nope, that is not what I said. I suggested that if Corbyn retires after 4 years of PM, a compromise candidate would be a good idea to replace him. McDonnell is too old, Abbott is too useless, Starmer is likely to lead Labour to a big victory. And there's something important to note if you think Starmer might be a repeat of Blair, and that is the context is completely different. Blair took over after 18 miserable years of tory rule. He was supposed to be the breath of fresh air, and the compromise then was between Thatcherism and "old labour". Starmer would be taking over as a compromise between the new labour and the Corbynite revolution, and he'd be doing so with the tories still utterly f***ed after their brexit shitshow.

What we will not want after four years of PM Corbyn is for the tories to squeak back in again. Labour won't need to win votes from the tories. What they'll need to do is win and keep the votes of the new generation coming through.

[Little John]

If we are still in the EU, either in whole or in all but name, by that point, it will be all over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t-ZaI_GhPg

[adam2]

They can bump Corbyn off, surely. It's what happens to good people threatening PTB. History.

No "bumping off" needed.
Simply persuade him to resign suddenly for medical reasons, like Harry Perkins did.

[PS_RalphW]

Interesting poll results on yougov

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... encies-it-

It looks at 3 way referendum and splits the results by constituency, party vote, etc.

My take on it is that May's deal is almost everybody's second choice, and as such would be bound to be rejected. That leads to a repeat of the
remain/no deal vote, with remain getting a small majority.

If remain was the first choice rejected, almost all remainers would switch to deal.

If no deal was the first choice rejected, almost half of those voting for it would switch to remain.

46% put remain as their first preference. It would not take a big swing for that to reach 50% and to get an absolute majority.

It also analyses how each MP should vote to maximise their own chances of re-election.

[UndercoverElephant]

They can bump Corbyn off, surely. It's what happens to good people threatening PTB. History.

No "bumping off" needed.
Simply persuade him to resign suddenly for medical reasons, like Harry Perkins did.

IIRC, Perkins actually didn't.

[Potemkin Villager]

They can bump Corbyn off, surely. It's what happens to good people threatening PTB. History.

No "bumping off" needed.
Simply persuade him to resign suddenly for medical reasons, like Harry Perkins did.

IIRC, Perkins actually didn't.

He did in the book but the tv series had a much happier ending.

I think the book was more realistic.

[kenneal - lagger]

If we are still in the EU, either in whole or in all but name, by that point, it will be all over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t-ZaI_GhPg

Who is he, Steve, and where does he come from (Uni/politics)?

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ring-will/

Theresa May had started the day ­optimistically, suggesting to Today ­programme listeners that she could still win the vote on her Brexit deal, which would definitely go ahead next Tuesday.

With a little sleight of hand over the troublesome backstop she would persuade rebel Tory MPs that everything would be all right because they would “have a choice� about whether to use it.

Just 90 minutes after she came off air, however, the mask had slipped. ­Either side of 10am a succession of ­Cabinet ministers received phone calls from Downing Street calling them to an emergency meeting to discuss the Brexit deal vote.

Only when they received an email minutes later did they know who else would be attending – nine ministers in all, with Brexiteers outnumbered two to one by Remainers.

So unexpected was the summons that Philip Hammond, who had planned to spend most of the day debating the Brexit deal’s effect on the economy, had to leave the Commons chamber to head to Downing Street at 1.30pm.

Several ministers assumed they were about to be told about a new idea Mrs May had had to get her dying Brexit deal through Parliament.

Once inside her office, however, it became clear that she had invited them to a brainstorming session to discuss what, if anything, they could do to avoid a catastrophic defeat in the vote on Tuesday.

By Mrs May’s side was Julian Smith, the Chief Whip, and arranged around the room were Remainers Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, David Lidington, David Gauke and Karen Bradley, and Brexiteers Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove and Liam Fox.

“I think people had turned up expecting her to say ‘this is the preferred course’,� said one Cabinet source. “But instead it was obvious she doesn’t really know what to do next.�

Julian Smith set the tone by admitting for the first time that the Government would lose the vote next Tuesday if it goes ahead.

“There was a general agreement, ­including from the PM, that there is no virtue in losing by 200 votes next week,� said another source. “But when she was pressed directly she wouldn’t come to any agreement about how to avoid that.�

Several ministers discussed the idea of postponing the vote until after Mrs May has been to Brussels next week, with the hope that she can win a further concession and hold the vote later in the month.

“There was a suggestion that we could postpone the vote until the 17th,� said a source, “But that would put huge pressure on the PM to come back with something concrete from Brussels. And you don’t want another Salzburg situation.�

Mr Smith and David Lidington “talked enthusiastically� about amending next week’s vote to give Parliament more control over the backstop. Mrs May wanted to know if it was just the backstop that was killing the vote, or if other factors needed to be taken into consideration.

Andrea Leadsom pressed her view that a managed no deal would not be a disaster, backed by Liam Fox.

She pointed out that if a deal has not been agreed by Jan 21, Parliament will seize control of Brexit thanks to the ­former Attorney General Dominic Grieve’s amendment passed earlier this week that allows MPs to instruct the Government on what to do next.

The mood in the hour-long meeting gradually turned to frustration as ideas circled round and round without any decisions being taken.

Ministers asked her: “These are your options, which one do you want?� but Mrs May remained “non-committal�.

Finally Amber Rudd, brought back into the Cabinet just last month as a May loyalist, tried to break the impasse by asking her: “What do you want to do, Prime Minister?� But she “got nothing� in return.

“There was a certain amount of dismay that the Prime Minister didn’t ­really put her cards on the table,� said one source. “She didn’t really seem fully engaged and once again she showed that she just doesn’t listen.� Nobody raised the idea of a second referendum and nobody suggested Mrs May should think about resigning.

When the meeting broke up, however, no one was any the wiser as to what Mrs May intends to do next.

“No one came away thinking the vote is going to be postponed next week,� said one source, “but no one came away with any idea what else she can do to avoid a heavy defeat. It seems as though, as ever, the Prime Minister just wants to avoid taking a decision for as long as she can get away with it.�

As well as delaying the vote by a few days, the ministers discussed delaying the vote by weeks in order to persuade the EU to enter full re-negotiations on the deal, despite Brussels’ insistence that the Withdrawal Agreement is ­final.

Another option discussed by the group was giving Brexiteers a commitment that once Britain has left the ­European Union next year “we can do anything we want�, including scrapping the backstop.

But others argued that doing so would put Britain in breach of an international treaty – the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement – which would be disastrous for the UK’s reputation and its prospects of signing trade deals with other countries in the future.

Quite extraordinary.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... lls-fails/

Theresa May has been warned by Cabinet ministers she will have to quit if her Brexit deal is defeated in the Commons next week and she fails to secure better terms from the EU, the Telegraph can disclose.

Ministers believe that there is “zero� chance of her deal, which has been publicly criticised by more than 100 Tory MPs, passing in a crunch Commons vote on Tuesday next week.

One Cabinet minister told the Telegraph “she [Mrs May] will fall� if she is defeated and then fails to go back to Brussels to fundamentally renegotiate the EU withdrawal agreement.

It came as Iain Duncan Smith, a Eurosceptic Tory MP and former Conservative leader, warned for the first time that Mrs May could have to go if she and her Cabinet decide to “brazen it out� in the wake of the vote.

He told the Telegraph: “The key thing is how the PM responds after the vote matters more than anything else she has done. I believe that if the response is we’ve lost but we will do this all over again it will become a leadership issue.

“I don’t want it to be. If she and the Cabinet decide to brazen it out and simply say anything under 200 [a defeat of 200] is not as big as you think then that would be a disaster.�

Downing Street is now braced for further resignations. The Telegraph understands that three middle-ranking Eurosceptic ministers are considering quitting because they cannot back the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal.

The Prime Minister was on Thursday confronted by Cabinet ministers who demanded that she give details on her “plan B� for Brexit. She declined, with Downing Street on Friday rejecting Cabinet calls for the vote to be delayed.

Tory Eurosceptics will on Saturday increase pressure on the Prime Minister with Boris Johnson, David Davis, Priti Patel addressing grassroots Conservatives.

Mrs Patel will say: “This deal doesn’t deliver for the country, it doesn’t deliver for Leave voters and it certainly doesn’t deliver for Conservative Party members.�

The Prime Minister will next week be pressed by Cabinet ministers to go back to Brussels and renegotiate the EU withdrawal agreement if it is rejected by Parliament.

One said: “She has said she’s a bloody difficult woman. She has got to go back to Brussels and come up with something that MPs can get behind. She should be bloody difficult with them, not her own MPs.�

Another said that the “survival of the Conservative Party� is at stake if the Prime Minister is heavily defeated on Tuesday.

Cabinet ministers are already splitting into different camps with rival “plan Bs�.

The Telegraph understands some Remain-supporting ministers are making preparations for a second referendum and already having discussions about lifting “collective responsibility� so that they can campaign to stay in.

Eurosceptics in Cabinet are drawing up plans for a “managed no-deal� Brexit, although this is being strongly resisted by colleagues.

Other Cabinet ministers are drawing up plans for a Norway-style deal that would keep Britain in the Single Market.

In a last-ditch bid to shore up support for the Government, three Tory backbenchers tabled a Government-backed amendment that would give MPs a vote before Britain enters the backstop. However, Eurosceptics dismissed it as “legally meaningless�.

Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, on Friday described the Prime Minister’s Brexit plan as an “S&M approach� that will keep the UK locked in “chains�.

‘The manacles have been co-forged, if you like, by us. We have decided to collaborate in our own incarceration,� he said.

“It’s unbelievable. It’s a kind of S&M approach to Government. What perversion is it where you want to be locked up in chains?� He repeatedly refused to say whether he has submitted a letter expressing no confidence in the Prime Minister.

Downing Street on Friday insisted that Tuesday's vote will go ahead despite calls by Cabinet ministers including Gavin Williamson, the Defence Secretary, for it to be delayed.

It came as Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, attempted to increase pressure on Mrs May by insisting that his party will tear up the current plans for a backstop. He told Euronews: “There certainly wouldn’t be a backstop from which you can’t escape.�

She's toast.

[Potemkin Villager]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... amber-rudd

"The work and pensions secretary, Amber Rudd, has conceded “anything could happen� if Theresa May fails to win next week’s historic Commons vote on her Brexit deal ..... "

No shit Sherlock!

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ng-on.html

Agree with Dan on this one.

Rejecting May's semi-soft Brexit isn't going to lead to a harder Brexit, as the Hard Brexiteers think but the opposite.

Either an even softer Brexit or the growing possibility of a second referendum and the end of Brexit itself.

That is why I am supporting May's deal.

[UndercoverElephant]

Agree with Dan on this one.

Seriously? That article is utter bollocks, Beria.

The Remainers believed they would have to starve out the supporters of Brexit by delaying and frustrating the process until eventually the British people said: 'We give up, leave things as they are.'

But not only are hardcore Brexiteers joining them in these wrecking tactics, they have also become the most vocal critics of all they once passionately championed.

'Staying would be better than the Brexit deal.' 'The Brexit deal will leave the British people even worse off than the status quo.'

These aren't the arguments of Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry, but Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson.

My bold, and that is a total misrepresentation of the situation. The hardcore brexiteers haven't become critics of what they once championed. They are criticising something they see as worse the remaining in the EU, because what they championed was reclaiming sovereignty and the deal does the exact opposite.

The DM is trying to mislead its readers, and it will fail miserably. What is even stranger is that you believe you can mislead the people who follow and contribute to this thread. Nobody actually believes this crap, Beria. And in fact I don't think you do either. I am beginning to wonder whether you are on fact part of a Russian misinformation/trolling operation.

'Reject May's deal, and we can get a better one,' they argue – playing right into the EU's hands.

That's what they might say, but underneath it they believe that rejecting May's deal is likely to lead to no deal. As you well know.

Rejecting May's semi-soft Brexit isn't going to lead to a harder Brexit, as the Hard Brexiteers think but the opposite.

Nobody knows where it is going to lead. Seriously. Nobody is in control of this process.

Either an even softer Brexit or the growing possibility of a second referendum and the end of Brexit itself.

Or no deal.

Up until very recently, you had no deal down as a likely outcome. Nothing has changed since then to make it any less likely. So why are you supporting DM-style pro-government propaganda?