Brexit process

[Little John]

They don't want to hear facts wood burner. They sky is going to fall in and it is all the fault of rabid, racist toffs and thick working class peasants....obviously.

[Snail]

One of the things I've found irritating is the viewpoint among remainers including labour and union leaders that the little people only care about little matters. That anything beyond the basics of food and shelter, ie paying the bills, is beyond them. That they're only concerned about their own little lives, and little else.

[Mark]

They don't want to hear facts wood burner. They sky is going to fall in and it is all the fault of rabid, racist toffs and thick working class peasants....obviously.

My feeling is that a hard Brexit (which you seem to want) will have dire economic consequences - I've outlined why in several previous posts, but I might be wrong
My feeling is that Mrs May's Brexit will have fewer economic consequences, but that's not to say that I like the deal - again, I might be wrong
None of us have a crystal ball - we're all only working on what we can deduce, plus some guesswork and supposition.

Other than you, nobody mentioned rabid, racist toffs or thick working class peasants.
I try to respect everybody and their opinion, whether I agree with them or not.
You should try it.

[UndercoverElephant]

For me, the worst part of all of this is the division and bad feeling between people.

Yes. I have lost two, maybe three, long-term friends over this issue (they are unable to accept my views about brexit).

[UndercoverElephant]

Beria/Eurointelligence:

There is no will, and no time, to re-negotiate the withdrawal treaty itself.

That deal will not pass the House of Commons. Will not. Does not matter how many times it is offered to the commons, the backstop makes it politically impossible for the commons to accept it, regardless of the consequences of rejecting it.

Renegotiating the political declaration is pointless (quite literally - because it cannot solve the problem caused by the backstop).

We see the following as plausible options - in the sense that they have a probability greater than zero:

1.Parliament approves the withdrawal agreement and political declaration on December 11, the scheduled date.

2.Parliament approves the withdrawal agreement on a second vote after Theresa May secures changes to the political declaration.

Not plausible. Zero probability.

3.Parliament fails to approve withdrawal agreement on second vote, no-deal Brexit follows.

Possible, yes.

4.First-round defeat triggers Tory leadership campaign, and May wins. Back to scenarios 2 or 3.

5.First-round defeat triggers Tory leadership campaign and May loses. A new Tory prime minister takes office in January or February. Back to scenarios 2 or 3.

6.Early elections before Brexit under provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act: this will most likely be a vote between conflicting views of the future relationship (current plan, EEA/Efta, customs union). Winner renegotiates political declaration. Back to scenarios 2 and 3.

7.no-Brexit process: election results in a government that supports a second referendum, backed by a majority of MPs. Government requests Art. 50 extension for up to one year. EU would accept the request. Second referendum is held. Remain wins and Brexit is revoked; otherwise back to options 2 and 3.

If this analysis is correct (if), then the only possible outcome at this point is a no deal brexit.

This is it. No-Brexit remains an option, but note it would require a very precise sequence of events:

1.defeat of the bill;

2.early elections;

3.Labour victory;

4.change in Labour’s position on Brexit;

5.request and acceptance of Article 50 extension for a second referendum;

6.a majority in favour of Remain.

Possible, but for it to happen then either May has to call an election and half the tory party goes along with it and the rest fail to topple her, or Labour brings a VoNC and tory remainer rebels choose to bring down the government in order to prevent a no deal.

IMO, no deal is still becoming more likely with every passing day.

[adam2]

For me, the worst part of all of this is the division and bad feeling between people.

Yes. I have lost two, maybe three, long-term friends over this issue (they are unable to accept my views about brexit).

I am sorry to hear that you have lost friends over this issue. Brexit is an important issue on which views may differ, often strongly.

Whilst I favour leaving, I am well aware that others hold differing views, and would respect such views, whilst not agreeing with them.
IMHO, loosing a long term friend over Brexit is no more sensible than loosing a friend over supporting different political parties.

[Little John]

This is about far more than merely party political differences. If it wasn't we wouldn't have some people attempting to undemocratically undermine/usurp a democratic decision. Consequently, whilst I can respect anybody's position on Brexit, I do not consider myself obligated to respect the position of anyone who wishes, as mentioned above, to deny the democratic process. That's because I am a democrat and that, as also mentioned above, is about more than mere party politics.

There is no obfuscating around this. One is either a democrat or one is not and, on that, we are getting to find out during this period who is who.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointelligence latest...

November 28, 2018

Short postscript on post-first-vote scenarios
In yesterday’s briefing we gave a series of possible Brexit scenarios. We would like to highlight one of these today, and add a new one following a discussion we had yesterday. The scenario we included, and which seemes to be gaining ground, was the Norway option. Nick Boles, a Conservative MP, suggested a pragmatic compromise to get a Brexit deal passed: accept the withdrawal agreement with no changes, but change the political declaration towards what he calls a Norway-Plus option - the combined Efta/EEA package plus co-operation in specific ares such as foreign policy. Interestingly, this option has the support of some eurosceptics, the DUP, and many Labour MPs. For the DUP, this option would remove the main stumbling block of differential treatment for Northern Ireland and the UK mainland. Scottish Tories favour it as it removes any advantages Northern Ireland might gain over Scotland. And some English Tories, including cabinet ministers, favour it because it reduces the probability of the UK remaining in the purgatory of an all-UK customs union post-Brexit. It does, however, remove the possibility of an independent immigration policy.

We understand the position of the DUP and the Scottish Tories, but we find that Theresa May’s much discredited deal is not nearly as bad as the press it is getting. It ticks a number of boxes that the EEA/Efta arrangement does not. But we, too, would acknowledge that ,if May’s deal is voted down on December 11, then this is what might emerge as a good second-best alternative. It might stand a better chance of gaining support from a majority of MPs, including a good number of Labour MPs. We noted, for example, Stephen Kinnock tweeting heavily in favour.

On the second referendum, our main scenario was an election followed by a new government and a Commons majority in favour. We would like to add another possible second referendum scenario that could happen without an election. After the December 11 vote, the House votes in favour of a motion for a second referendum. Motion passes. Government refuses to legislate a second referendum. Parliament then passes a vote of no confidence in the government. An alternative, pro-referendum government is formed within 14 days, the prescribed period in the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. We think this is the less likely of the two referendum scenarios, but the idea of a short-lived government of national unity, with the sole purpose of pushing a second referendum, cannot be entirely excluded, especially as we are approaching a no-deal Brexit alternative.

We remain convinced that a deal based on the current withdrawal agreement - but not necessarily the political declaration - is the most likely of all options.

[kenneal - lagger]

LJ, I recently spent a few hours in the pub discussing my Brexit stance with a Remainer friend and her argument for being a Remainer came down to the fact that she "liked being a European"!! No arguments about our being forced into the Eurozone in the near future and losing our ability to print our own money to keep us out of the situation the Greeks and Italians find themselves in would change her mind. No arguments about filling the country with immigrants at a time when we import 40% of our food and world food shortages are imminent deflected her love of being European.

I have tried to get her to watch the Money is Debt video so that she understands where money comes from, she has no idea at present, but she says it is "tory shit" so she obviously hasn't watched more than two seconds of it. It makes me wonder how many Remainers are so emotionally attached to the EU that they would rather stay and see us drowned in the collapsing edifice that constitutes the EU in its current state than leave and survive, albeit for only a few years longer.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... rexit-deal

EU clear that this is the only deal on offer.

It's deal or no deal.

[emordnilap]

To lighten the thread a little:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkvEp_B5Kq8

[Little John]

So, John McDonnell has apparently just said that Labour could back a second referendum. But, only if "no deal" was not on the ballot.

Traitor.

Okay, so now we get to see what it will take before the political class do as they are f***ing told.

[woodburner]

They won’t do as they are told, this just confirms you are labouring under the misaprehension that we have a democratic system.

[Little John]

I'm not labouring under any misapprehension. "Democracy" has always been a partial sham at best. However there comes point where the balance of that arrangement goes too far in the sham direction to the point where it is no longer even partial.

At which point, the pitchforks come out. I would say that point is rapidly approaching. Trump and Brexit were merely the canaries in the mine. They were warnings to our political class. Warnings that have clearly not been heeded.

[vtsnowedin]

I'm not labouring under any misapprehension. "Democracy" has always been a partial sham at best. However there comes point where the balance of that arrangement goes too far in the sham direction to the point where it is no longer even partial.

At which point, the pitchforks come out. I would say that point is rapidly approaching. Trump and Brexit were merely the canaries in the mine. They were warnings to our political class. Warnings that have clearly not been heeded.

Don't be so pessimistic. Democracy is slow and cumbersome and plagued by corruption but it does move the way the majority wants once the clear majority has made up it's mind about what it wants.