Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -Deal.html

Philip Hammond 'will quit the Cabinet and take five ministers with him if Theresa May tries for a No Deal Brexit'

Philip Hammond would quit Cabinet if Mrs May tried to move to ‘no deal’ Brexit
Chancellor would take four ministers with him if PM quits EU the without a deal
Theresa May ‘downgraded’ warnings about crashing out of the bloc with no deal
May now tells her MPs there could be no Brexit at all if her deal is voted down

[Lord Beria3]

Yup.

Sunday Times reporting the same. Remain Tories would try and force May to go for a permanent customs union with the hope of getting Labour and DUP support in a second vote.

This is the risk in Brexiteers not supporting Mays deal which is semi-soft.

Instead of a no deal we might end up in a soft brexit. Which is why I would reluctantly back the deal (I think).

However if I was confident that no deal brexit would happen if Mays deal died in the parliament i would prefer a no deal.

But I don't. I fear an even softer Brexit - the key is Corbyn.

[Little John]

I tell you what, here's a thought..

Instead of trying to predict specific hypothetical political machinations and then attempting to meticulously triangulate your position in order to optimize outcomes....

You could... you know.... form a position based on principle

and then stick to it

[Lord Beria3]

It's figuring out the least bad option.

The eurointelligence briefing have influenced me as well. This deal looks worse then it is.

Anyway my mind shifts regularly on this. As a Labour supporter what's your take on what Labour will do LJ?

[fuzzy]

Labour is a meaningless party now. It used to mean representing employees. Now it means representing Guardian readers and the aspirational class of wankers who think it's all about range rovers, winter tires, and private education.

[UndercoverElephant]

This deal looks worse then it is.

Apart from that backstop. It really is too much of a trap to make the rest of the deal worth signing up to. The UK would literally be ceding sovereignty instead of reclaiming it. The bottom line is that as full EU members, we can always leave via A50, but if we do get trapped in the backstop, we cannot escape. This alone is enough to sink the deal.

what Labour will do

React to what the tories do, when it suits them. The deal will be voted down by a big margin, and Labour will call for May's resignation and/or a general election. Neither will happen. What happens next is an internal struggle in the tory party, as May loyalists try to twist the arms of tory MPs to get them to back the deal in a second vote (which will not work sufficiently). At some point it will become clear that no amount of voting will get the deal through, and assuming the EU refuses to reopen negotiations and remove the backstop, May then has to either go for a no deal, or an A50 extension and a second referendum. If she chooses no deal then the new mutineers have to decide whether to bring the government down in order to avoid a no deal. If she chooses a referendum then Labour will support it (and she'll need them, because the ERG will not support it), provided they agree to to the question/format.

But there's still a possible impasse here, because the EU might refuse to grant an A50 extension unless there's a guarantee that no deal isn't on the ballot paper, and Labour might refuse to back the second referendum unless no deal is on the ballot paper. Which would leave us heading for no deal again...

Apart from that, there's no point in Labour doing anything except prepare for a snap GE.

[Lord Beria3]

Or May could tweak the political declaration to indicate a permanent customs union which is the Labour official position and making it extremely difficult for Corbyn to block a Brexit deal.

That would piss off hard-line Brexiteers within the Tory party but could lead to a withdrawal deal getting through on a second vote (assuming Labour vote for it or just abstain).

That strikes me as a more likely outcome then a 2nd referendum which for different reasons neither party leadership wants as it would be massively divisive within their party and electorates.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... nment.html

Dan Hodges, a Labour Blairite with good contacts within both main parties, is a good read.

Brexit could split up both parties next year.

[Little John]

It's figuring out the least bad option.

The eurointelligence briefing have influenced me as well. This deal looks worse then it is.

Anyway my mind shifts regularly on this. As a Labour supporter what's your take on what Labour will do LJ?

Being, when push comes to shove, merely the second cheek of the same arse, they will betray this country.

[UndercoverElephant]

Or May could tweak the political declaration to indicate a permanent customs union which is the Labour official position and making it extremely difficult for Corbyn to block a Brexit deal.

Political declaration isn't worth the paper it is written on.

That strikes me as a more likely outcome then a 2nd referendum which for different reasons neither party leadership wants as it would be massively divisive within their party and electorates.

Corbyn will take a 2nd referendum if he can't get an election. For him, the priority has always been getting into power, and a 2nd referendum pretty much guarantees that, because the result will be a victory for either no deal or remain, both of which will completely F--k up the tory party.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... nment.html

Dan Hodges, a Labour Blairite with good contacts within both main parties, is a good read.

Brexit could split up both parties next year.

From the article:

Nailing Jeremy Corbyn's Pushmi-Pullyu stance on Brexit, she declared: 'He is telling Leave voters one thing and Remain voters another. Whatever he might do, I will act in the national interest.'

Bullshit. The real pushmi-pullyu is May, who is telling remainers "It's my deal or no deal" and brexiteers "It's my deal or no brexit". Strangely enough, neither group has any faith in her word.

But I understand three facts have brought this fantasy to life in the minds of some MPs. The first is a realisation – not disputed by May's team – that there is no way her Brexit Withdrawal agreement can pass the House of Commons without Labour votes.

The second is that, if she were to force it through with the assistance of a Labour rebellion, that would create a fracture in both main parties.

Which is why Labour would be bonkers to agree to this. Why accept a solution which fractures both parties when they can sit on their hands and wait for the tory party to explode?

Corbyn is a savvy operator. This is a once in a century opportunity to totally F--k the tory party up, and I'd bet on him to pull it off.

The only "government of national unity" labour will support is one that will hold a second referendum, the result of which is guaranteed to F--k the tories. They will not back this deal as it stands.

[Lord Beria3]

My understanding is that Labour strategists (and Corbyn) are acutely aware that a 2nd referendum would be toxic for their working class Leave voters. It would be considered an historic betrayal.

It would F--k the Tories, yes, but would also F--k the Labour party as well! Little John's rage is typical of traditional leave supporting Labour voters.

[UndercoverElephant]

My understanding is that Labour strategists (and Corbyn) are acutely aware that a 2nd referendum would be toxic for their working class Leave voters. It would be considered an historic betrayal.

It would F--k the Tories, yes, but would also F--k the Labour party as well! Little John's rage is typical of traditional leave supporting Labour voters.

Maybe. However, I suspect the tories would take more damage than Labour. I honestly believe that if there is a second referendum, Corbyn will win the next election. Who will those betrayed labour voters in Sunderland vote for instead of Labour? Not the tories, surely.

[Little John]

My understanding is that Labour strategists (and Corbyn) are acutely aware that a 2nd referendum would be toxic for their working class Leave voters. It would be considered an historic betrayal.

It would F--k the Tories, yes, but would also F--k the Labour party as well! Little John's rage is typical of traditional leave supporting Labour voters.

Yes it is typical - certainly in the north.

Yes it would be toxic for working class (otherwise Labour supporting) leave voters who, as things currently stand with Labour's growing equivocation on Brexit, are already likely to deliver significant losses to Labour in the north come any general election.

[Little John]

My understanding is that Labour strategists (and Corbyn) are acutely aware that a 2nd referendum would be toxic for their working class Leave voters. It would be considered an historic betrayal.

It would F--k the Tories, yes, but would also F--k the Labour party as well! Little John's rage is typical of traditional leave supporting Labour voters.

Maybe. However, I suspect the tories would take more damage than Labour. I honestly believe that if there is a second referendum, Corbyn will win the next election. Who will those betrayed labour voters in Sunderland vote for instead of Labour? Not the tories, surely.

UKIP.

Or worse.

Much worse (or better).

It would appear nothing has been learned from the Trumpism that has swept all across the Western world.

Nothing.