adam2 wrote:After a few days of fluctuating around $85 Brent crude has nor reached about $86-50, another multi year high.
$100 by Christmas ?
Which Christmas are we talking about here?
It certainly won't be this Christmas judging by the way the Markets have been recently.
WTI is around $50 and heading South
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
Brent down 5.4% today to $56.38
WTI down 7.17% to $46.60
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
I think the speculators are over correcting and beginning to panic. That will sort itself out in due time.
I paid $2.199 USD per gallon this weekend in Massachusetts but it is still $2.699 locally. If WTI stays below $50 for a month we might get down to <$2.00 gas.
Both heading south at a fair rate of knots at the moment
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
Been a couple of refinery fires in Texas this week.
One of these plants run by BP the other XOM
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
I continue to find the present relatively low oil price to be a surprise.
Faster than expected decline in production from Ghawar, faster than expected decline at Canterell, and now a new conflict in Libya.
Prices HAVE increased but only very marginally to about $70 for Brent.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
adam2 wrote:I continue to find the present relatively low oil price to be a surprise.
Faster than expected decline in production from Ghawar, faster than expected decline at Canterell, and now a new conflict in Libya.
Prices HAVE increased but only very marginally to about $70 for Brent.
I was looking at a different but broadly similar chart.
My reference to only a modest increase in the oil price was regarding the last few days. Two depletion reports and the new conflict in Libya seem to have had very little near term effect on prices.
I would have expected the news of the last few days to put at least $15 on the price in addition to the slow, steady climb that has existed for some months.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
adam2 wrote:I was looking at a different but broadly similar chart.
My reference to only a modest increase in the oil price was regarding the last few days. Two depletion reports and the new conflict in Libya seem to have had very little near term effect on prices.
I would have expected the news of the last few days to put at least $15 on the price in addition to the slow, steady climb that has existed for some months.
<flashback>
The prompt end of the oil price curve has never really responded to long term issues like that. You might see long term contracts like Dec 2021 moving up relative to Dec 2019, but even then depletion reports were never really a significant price driver. Anyone who trades that far forward will already have done their own research and been following depletion rates for ages. News reports like this are always way out of date and report the market, not lead it. I guarantee most oil traders would look at this and just shrug. They are more interested in how many tankers of crude are available for sale in the north sea next week, and how much is currently in storage in rotterdam relative to current refinery throughput. It's just not a market that looks very far ahead, even for those who own physical facilities.
And Libyan exports haven't been significant for years. There's always been plenty of alternatives when necessary.
Interestingly, if you look at a price history chart of Brent Crude since about 2005 to the present and compare it to Bitcoin from 2017 to the present, you see a very very similar shape: a rapidly accelerating rise to a peak followed by a dramatic crash, a moderate recovery, then another smaller crash followed by a second mild recovery.
Because bitcoin is almost completely driven by speculation, imo it shows how much of the outright oil price is also driven by financial speculation rather than fundamentals. It was always the shape of the price curve - the near term relative to the long term - that was affected by real physical oil flows. People pile into a rising market, and that's what causes spikes and crashes, not really the geopolitics or geology per se.
adam2 wrote:I was looking at a different but broadly similar chart.
My reference to only a modest increase in the oil price was regarding the last few days. Two depletion reports and the new conflict in Libya seem to have had very little near term effect on prices.
I would have expected the news of the last few days to put at least $15 on the price in addition to the slow, steady climb that has existed for some months.
Perhaps the market is a bit slower to react then you think it is. Look at yesterdays change at the bottom of the page. Up $1.32 in one day!! If that becomes a trend for a couple of weeks and you will have your $15.00/b
Also those bad news reports are balanced out by good (or no news) from many other sources about production you don't hear or read about but are given fair weight by market traders.
